Saudi Arabia Revises Q1 Economic Growth Estimate Up to 3.4%
Saudi Arabia's General Authority for Statistics has revised its annual economic growth figures for the Kingdom for the first quarter of 2025 to 3.4%, up from a preliminary estimate of 2.7% released in May, underscoring the resilience of non-oil sectors in driving economic momentum.
Seasonally adjusted data showed real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 1.1% in the first quarter compared to the final three months of 2024, according to the updated figures.
The figures showed non-oil activities as the true driver behind Saudi Arabia's economic expansion.
Non-oil sectors surged 4.9% year-on-year, up from 4.2% in the May preliminary reading, and grew 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, contributing 2.8 percentage points to overall real GDP growth.
This robust growth reflects the impact of massive government investments in infrastructure projects and development initiatives, alongside efforts to boost the private sector.
In contrast, oil sector activities saw a slight decline of 0.5% year-on-year and 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to the Kingdom's voluntary production cuts.
Despite this contraction, the negative impact on overall growth remained limited to just 0.1 percentage points, underscoring the economy's ability to offset oil sector weakness through other areas.
Government activities also recorded solid growth, rising 3.2% year-on-year and 5.5% compared to the previous quarter.
Most non-oil economic activities recorded robust positive growth rates in the first quarter of 2025.
Wholesale and retail trade, restaurants, and hotels posted the highest growth at 8.4% year-on-year, reflecting a booming tourism and entertainment sector alongside rising private consumer spending.
Transport, storage, and communications grew by 6.0% year-on-year, highlighting advancements in the Kingdom's logistics and digital infrastructure.
Financial services, insurance, and business services expanded 5.5% year-on-year, indicating maturation of the financial and service sectors.
The data underscore the pivotal role of government investments and consumer spending in sustaining this growth. Gross fixed capital formation rose 8.5% annually, signaling continued funding for major projects and urban development.
Meanwhile, government final consumption expenditure increased by 5.2%, with private final consumption up 4.5% year-on-year.
Non-oil exports, including re-exports, surged 13.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while oil exports declined 8.4% over the same period, according to official figures released in May.
These revised estimates come amid efforts by the General Authority for Statistics to align closely with international standards and enhance data quality.
The authority undertook a comprehensive update of GDP estimates, applying the global moving-average methodology and collecting detailed 2023 data through expanded statistical surveys, ensuring accuracy and reliability.
This strong non-oil-driven growth highlights Saudi Arabia's economic resilience and adaptability in a changing global landscape, reinforcing its steady path toward the ambitious goals of Vision 2030.
In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast Saudi Arabia's GDP growth at 3.0% for 2025, a downward revision from its January estimate of 3.3%. The IMF also cut its 2026 growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 3.7%.
Jihad Azour, IMF Director for the Middle East and Central Asia, told Asharq Al-Awsat last month that Saudi Arabia's economic resilience enables it to weather fluctuations in global oil prices.
He noted the Kingdom's substantial financial reserves provide a strong buffer against external shocks. These reserves, combined with ongoing structural reforms under Vision 2030, have significantly strengthened Saudi Arabia's capacity to adapt.
Azour added that reforms have not only bolstered economic resilience but also effectively diversified income sources and increased the contribution of non-oil sectors to GDP.
This shift toward developing promising sectors reduces reliance on oil revenues and fosters sustainable new economic opportunities.
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