Bearish Bets on Strategy Look Alluring, Says 10X Research as MSTR Diverges From Bitcoin's Bull Run
10x Research, led by Markus Thielen, likes bearish options bets on Strategy (MSTR) as the Nasdaq-listed bitcoin BTC holder's share price diverges from the upward trending BTC price.
In a report sent to clients Friday, Thielen recommended a bear put spread on MSTR, involving a long position in the $370 put option and a short position in the $300 put, both expiring on June 27.
This strategy will yield maximum profit if MSTR drops to $300 or lower by June 27, representing a bearish bet on the stock price. Put option insures the buyer against potential price drops in return for a small upfront premium payment.
The maximum loss for the put spread buyers if MSTR's price embarks on a new uptrend is limited to the initial cost of the strategy, which was $13.89 on Friday.
MSTR, however, fell 7% to $369 on Friday, according to data source TradingView. MicroStrategy holds 576,230 BTC, the largest for any publicly-listed company, having steadily accumulated coins since August 2020 through debt financing.
Over the years, it has emerged as a preferred instrument for institutions looking to take exposure to BTC without having to actually own the cryptocurrency.
The stock price has recently diverged from the upward-trending BTC price, raising alarm bells on crypto social media.
While BTC hit a record high of over $110K last week, MSTR's rise stalled at around $440, falling well short of its lifetime peak of $543 reached in November.
"This trade captures the growing disconnect between Bitcoin's strength and MicroStrategy's fading momentum and volatility. Despite Bitcoin reaching all-time highs, MSTR remains significantly below its peak, suggesting investor enthusiasm is waning," Thielen said, explaining the bear put spread.
Thielen correctly predicted BTC's recent rise into six figures.
Note that a similar divergence between MSTR and bitcoin marked BTC's November 2021 top.
Past data does not guarantee future results, and the latest divergence between MSTR and BTC does not necessarily mean that bitcoin's bull run is over.
That said, its does suggest waning enthusiasm about BTC among tradfi investors. In addition, the MSTR bear put spread could offer a hedge against a potential weakness in BTC.
"Bitcoin is breaking records, but Strategy is stalling—and that divergence matters. Retail is still chasing the dream, unaware that the right-tail upside may be gone. This is where the game changes: when the middleman runs out of premium and the engine stalls," Thielen said.
"Buying a Strategy put spread can be profitable, but it is also an effective hedge against a long Bitcoin position," Thielen added.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
20 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Ondas Holdings Inc. Announces Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants
BOSTON, MA / / June 9, 2025 / Ondas Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:ONDS) ("Ondas" or the "Company"), a leading provider of private industrial wireless networks and commercial drone and automated data solutions through its Ondas Networks and Ondas Autonomous Systems business units, today announced that it intends to offer and sell shares of its common stock and in lieu of common stock, pre-funded warrants to purchase shares of its common stock. Ondas also expects to grant the underwriter a 30-day option to purchase additional shares of common stock offered in the public offering. All of the securities in the proposed offering are to be sold by Ondas. The offering is subject to market conditions, and there can be no assurance as to whether or when the offering may be completed, or as to the actual size or terms of the offering. Ondas intends to use the net proceeds from the proposed offering for general corporate purposes, including funding capital expenditures and providing working capital. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. is acting as the sole underwriter for the offering. A shelf registration statement on Form S-3 (File No. 333-286642) relating to the securities to be issued in the proposed offering was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") on April 18, 2025 and was declared effective on April 25, 2025. A preliminary prospectus supplement and accompanying prospectus describing the terms of the proposed offering will be filed with the SEC. The securities may be offered only by means of a prospectus, including a prospectus supplement, forming a part of the effective registration statement. Copies of the preliminary prospectus supplement and the accompanying prospectus relating to the securities being offered may also be obtained from Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Attention: Syndicate Prospectus Department, 85 Broad Street, 26th Floor, New York, NY 10004, or by telephone at (212) 667-8055, or by email at EquityProspectus@ Electronic copies of the preliminary prospectus supplement and accompanying prospectus will also be available on the SEC's website at The final terms of the offering will be disclosed in a final prospectus supplement to be filed with the SEC. This press release does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, these securities, nor will there be any sale of these securities in any state or other jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale is not permitted. Forward-Looking Statements Statements made in this release that are not statements of historical or current facts are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including, but not limited to, statements regarding the completion and anticipated use of proceeds of the proposed offering. We caution readers that forward-looking statements are predictions based on our current expectations about future events. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. These risks and uncertainties relate, among other things, to fluctuations in our stock price, changes in market conditions and satisfaction of customary closing conditions related to the proposed public offering. Our actual results, performance, or achievements, including our ability to conduct and complete a public offering of our common stock on terms acceptable to us or at all, could differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements as a result of a number of factors, including the risks discussed under the heading "Risk Factors" discussed under the caption "Item 1A. Risk Factors" in Part I of our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K or any updates discussed under the caption "Item 1A. Risk Factors" in Part II of our Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and in our other filings with the SEC. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise that occur after that date, except as required by law. ContactsIR Contact for Ondas Holdings Inc.888.350.9994ir@ Media Contact for OndasEscalate PRondas@ Preston GrimesMarketing Manager, Ondas Holdings SOURCE: Ondas Holdings Inc. View the original press release on ACCESS Newswire
Yahoo
20 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Warner Bros. Discovery Stock Enjoys Big Jump, Then Promptly Fades After Split Announcement
Warner Bros. Discovery's plan to split into two publicly traded companies sent its stock price surging higher on Monday morning, with shares of WBD jumping 13% to $11.10 on the Nasdaq exchange only minutes after the opening bell. Those early gains started to fade by midday, though, with Warner Bros. Discovery's stock trading for $9.94 per share at 1 p.m. ET — up 1.30% from where it closed last week. Here is an up-to-the-minute look at WBD: On the year, WBD is down 6%, and the company's stock price has been more than sliced in half since it debuted on the Nasdaq in 2022 for $24.08 per share. That came after WarnerMedia and Discovery merged — a move that was met with a collective shrug from Wall Street analysts and investors from the start, with its stock price increasing 0.8% on April 11, 2022, its first day of trading. Now, three years later, WBD announced on Monday it will split into two companies, with one company focused on its global cable channels and another dedicated to its movie and streaming businesses. David Zaslav, president and CEO of WBD, will become president and CEO of Streaming & Studios, while Gunnar Wiedenfels, WBD's CFO, will serve as president and CEO of Global Networks. The separation is expected to be completed by mid-2026. 'By operating as two distinct and optimized companies in the future, we are empowering these iconic brands with the sharper focus and strategic flexibility they need to compete most effectively in today's evolving media landscape,' Zaslav said in a statement. The new Streaming & Studios operation will consist of Warner Bros. Television, Warner Bros. Motion Picture Group, DC Studios, HBO and HBO Max, in addition to their corresponding film and television libraries. Global Networks, meanwhile, will include international entertainment, sports and TV news brands such as CNN, TNT Sports, Discovery, Discovery+, Bleacher Report and European free-to-air channels. In related news, WBD investors last week voted to reject a $51.9 million compensation package for Zaslav. The post Warner Bros. Discovery Stock Enjoys Big Jump, Then Promptly Fades After Split Announcement appeared first on TheWrap. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
21 minutes ago
- Yahoo
How major US stock indexes fared Monday, 6/9/2025
U.S. stocks drifted closer to their record as the world's two largest economies begin talks on trade that could help avoid a recession. The S&P 500 rose 0.1% Monday and is 2.3% below the record it reached in February. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat, and the Nasdaq composite rose 0.3%. Markets are waiting to hear what comes of trade talks between the United States and China taking place in London. Treasury yields slipped after a survey suggested consumers' expectations for coming inflation eased. Chinese stocks rose, while indexes were mixed across the rest of Asia and Europe. On Monday: The S&P 500 rose 5.52 points, or 0.1%, to 6,005.88. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.11 points, or less than 0.1%, to 42,761.76. The Nasdaq composite rose 61.28 points, or 0.3%, to 19,591.24. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 12.20 points, or 0.6%, to 2,144.45. For the year: The S&P 500 is up 124.25 points, or 2.1%. The Dow is up 217.54 points, or 0.5%. The Nasdaq is up 280.44 points, or 1.5%. The Russell 2000 is down 85.71 points, or 3.8%. Sign in to access your portfolio
