Swing states and big names set the stage for explosive 2026 governor races

Yahoo

3 days ago

The fate of President Trump's agenda could hinge on whether his allies or his opponents win critical state-level races in the midterms.
Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers announced Thursday that he will not run for another term, throwing a new wrinkle into what is already shaping up to be a high-stakes — and hotly contested — set of governors' races in next year's midterm elections.
In a video announcing his decision, Evers, who has been governor of the Badger State since 2019, expressed confidence that he could earn another term if he pursued it but said it was time to step aside so he can spend more time with his family.
'Would I win if I ran … no question about it,' he said.
Governors have always been important, of course, but a state's leadership has taken on even more significance since President Trump returned to the White House. Democratic governors across the country have gone to great lengths to try to prevent Trump from carrying out his agenda, while Republicans have largely been happy to see his goals fulfilled in their states.
Only two governorships are on the line this year, in New Jersey and Virginia. Although there are plenty of reason to watch those contests closely, the real fireworks will come in 2026. That's when the top job in 36 states will be up for grabs.
Here's an early breakdown of next year's most pivotal governor races and what might be at stake depending on how they are ultimately decided.
Swing state showdowns
Just like in presidential election years, most of the attention in next year's midterms will be paid to closely contested swing states. Six of the seven swing states from the 2024 presidential race, all of which went for Trump, will vote for governor next year.
Four are currently controlled by Democrats. Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro are both eligible to run again, though neither of them has officially announced that they're seeking another term.
The races in the two other Democratic-led swing states are wide open. With Evers not running and no obvious successor waiting in the wings, Wisconsin Democrats will now need to select a new candidate who will try to keep the state, which has flipped in each of the past three presidential elections, under their party's control.
Democrats will also need to find a replacement for one of their party's recent breakout stars, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who can't run again because of term limits. Four candidates, including Michigan's current secretary of state and its lieutenant governor, have already announced that they're running in what will likely be a heated Democratic primary. Several Republicans have also thrown their hats into the ring at this early stage, including the state's former attorney general and former House speaker.
Republicans will also be defending the governorship in two of their own swing states. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who became a foil for Trump after he refused to go along with the president's scheme to overturn the results of the 2020 election, is term-limited. Kemp comfortably defeated Democrat Stacy Abrams in both 2018 and 2022. But Georgia has been gradually becoming more purple, and the GOP could face some risk if it selects a more divisive MAGA Republican as its nominee. That's especially true if it ends up being controversial Trump ally Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has expressed interest in running. Abrams also hasn't ruled out a third bid for governor. Four other Democrats have already declared, including former Atlanta mayor and Biden administration official Keisha Lance Bottoms.
The Democratic Party's best opportunity to flip control of a governor's mansion will likely come in Nevada. Current Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo is running for a second term after narrowly defeating incumbent Democrat Steve Sisolak in 2022. Two high-profile Democrats in the state, current Attorney General Aaron Ford and Washoe County Commissioner Alexis Hill, have announced that they're running to unseat Lombardo. Sisolak has said he's considering joining the race as well.
What's in play if there's a blue wave
Things tend to go poorly for whichever party controls the White House during the first midterm elections of a new presidency. They typically take a beating up and down the ballot as the public turns against the party in charge. That includes governor's races.
The combination of that long-term trend and the particularly stark decline in public opinion of Trump since he returned to office could mean that what would normally be considered safe governorships could be at risk for the GOP. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis can't seek another term. Trump may have already sealed the GOP primary for that state when he endorsed Rep. Byron Donalds in February. So far only one Democrat, former Republican House member David Jolly, has formally entered the race.
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine and Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, both Republicans, also won't be on the ballot, which could help put those states in reach for Democrats if there's a major blue wave in the midterms. Ohio could be particularly interesting, with Trump ally and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy running on the Republican side and former Sen. Sherrod Brown reportedly considering a bid for the Democratic nomination.
Democrats have been eyeing Texas as a potential game changer for their party for over a decade and have made some noteworthy gains in what has historically been a deep-red state. Even in a blue wave scenario, ousting Gov. Greg Abbott — who is seeking a fourth term — is likely a long shot. Abbott has won each of his three previous races by double digits, and at the moment, none of the high-profile Democrats in Texas politics has stepped up to challenge him.
GOP long shots
Given how things usually go in the midterms, the odds of Republicans gaining enough ground to put safe Democratic governorships in play could be slim. But the GOP is still likely to put forth serious challenges in a few states to give themselves a puncher's chance if the national mood shifts in their favor. Five Republicans have already joined the race to unseat former vice presidential candidate Gov. Tim Walz in Minnesota, assuming Walz doesn't decide to run for president instead.
Maine Gov. Janet Mills is term-limited, which could create vulnerabilities for Democrats in a state that hasn't elected consecutive governors from the same party since the 1950s.
The outliers
Two states with leaders who don't belong to the party that otherwise dominates state politics will vote for governors next year. In Kansas, where Trump defeated former Vice President Kamala Harris by 16 points in 2024, Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly is term-limited. Eight Republicans, including former Kansas Gov. Jeff Colyer, have joined the race. Two noteworthy candidates, both state senators, have announced their bids on the Democratic side.
New Hampshire isn't as blue as Kansas is red, but the state's current Republican governor, Kelly Ayotte, could face a tough reelection bid if a serious Democratic challenger joins the race — though no one has stepped up so far.
The primary battles
Most of the states electing governors next year aren't really at risk of changing party control, which makes the party primaries the real source of drama. The contest to replace California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is term-limited, will have especially high stakes. Whoever leads the Golden State instantly becomes one of the stars in the Democratic Party and inevitably invites speculation about a future presidential run. Some of the biggest names in California politics have joined the Democratic primary race, including former Rep. Katie Porter, ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, former Health Secretary Xavier Becerra and current state Senate leader Toni Atkins. A true bombshell could still be coming, though. Harris is reportedly giving 'a serious look' at jumping into the race.
Democrats will also need to select a replacement for Colorado Gov. Jared Polis. Michael Bennet, who has represented Colorado in the Senate since 2009, would appear to be the strong frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. He could face a tougher challenge than expected if Ken Salazar, another former senator who left the job to become interior secretary under Barack Obama, steps into the race.
Republicans face similar circumstances in Alabama, where Gov. Kay Ivey is term-limited. Former college football coach and current U.S. Senator Tommy Tuberville is currently the only significant candidate for the GOP primary there.