Elections in Bolivia expected to empower right-wing for first time in decades

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3 hours ago

Bolivians are voting for a new president and parliament in elections that could see a right-wing government elected for the first time in more than two decades.
After a lacklustre campaign overshadowed by a looming economic collapse, the vote – which could spell the end of the Andean nation's long-dominant leftist party – is one of the most consequential for Bolivia in recent times, and one of the most unpredictable.
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In the run-up to Sunday, some 30% or so of voters remained undecided.
An electoral official shows voters the presidential ballot in Jesus de Machaca (Juan Karita/AP)
Polls showed the two leading right-wing candidates, multimillionaire business owner Samuel Doria Medina and former president Jorge Fernando 'Tuto' Quiroga, locked in a virtual dead heat.
Voting is mandatory in Bolivia, where some 7.9 million Bolivians are eligible to vote.
'I have rarely, if ever, seen a situational tinderbox with as many sparks ready to ignite,' said Daniel Lansberg-Rodriguez, founding partner of Aurora Macro Strategies, a New York-based advisory firm.
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The election is being closely watched across Latin America for its potential impact on the economic fate and political stability of this long-restive, resource-rich nation.
Presidential candidate Samuel Doria Medina shows his ballot (Natacha Pisarenko/AP)
It also marks a watershed moment for the Movement Toward Socialism, or MAS, party, whose founder, charismatic ex-president Evo Morales, rose to power as part of the 'pink tide' of leftist leaders that swept into office across Latin America during the commodities boom of the early 2000s.
Now shattered by infighting, the party is fighting for its survival in Sunday's elections.
The outcome will determine whether Bolivia — a nation of about 12 million people with the largest lithium reserves on Earth and crucial deposits of rare earth minerals — follows a growing trend in Latin America, where right-wing leaders such as Argentina's libertarian Javier Milei, Ecuador's strongman Daniel Noboa and El Salvador's conservative populist Nayib Bukele have surged in popularity.
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A right-wing government in Bolivia could trigger a major geopolitical realignment for a country now allied with Venezuela's socialist-inspired government and world powers such as China, Russia and Iran.
The sombre mood of the election was clear as voting kicked off at polling stations in central La Paz, Bolivia's capital, and a steady stream of voters began to trickle in.
Voters outside a polling post in El Alto (Natacha Pisarenko/AP)
Bolivians waiting to vote at three different secondary schools across the city expressed confused, cynical and bitter emotions, fed by an annual inflation rate of more than 16% last month (compared to 2% less than two years ago), a scarcity of fuel and absence of hope for swift improvement. Several said they were voting for 'el menos peor', the lesser evil.
The right-wing opposition candidates bill the race as a chance to chart a new destiny for Bolivia.
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But both front-runners, Mr Doria Medina and Mr Quiroga, have served in past neoliberal governments and run for president three times before — losing at least twice to Mr Morales.
Mr Doria Medina and Mr Quiroga have praised the Trump administration and vowed to restore ties with the United States — ruptured in 2008 when Mr Morales expelled the American ambassador.
They have also expressed interest in doing business with Israel, which has no diplomatic relations with Bolivia, and called for foreign private companies to invest in the country and develop its rich natural resources.
After storming to office in 2006, Mr Morales, Bolivia's first indigenous president, nationalised the nation's oil and gas industry, using the profits to reduce poverty, expand infrastructure and improve the lives of the rural poor.
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Voters queue at a polling station in Jesus de Machaca (Juan Karita/AP)
After three consecutive presidential terms, as well as a contentious bid for an unprecedented fourth in 2019 that set off popular unrest and led to his removal, Mr Morales has been barred from this race by Bolivia's constitutional court.
Whoever wins faces daunting challenges. Mr Doria Medina and Mr Quiroga have warned of the need for a painful fiscal adjustment, including the elimination of Bolivia's generous food and fuel subsidies, to save the nation from insolvency.
Some analysts caution this risks sparking social unrest.
All 130 seats in Bolivia's chamber of deputies, the lower house of parliament, are also up for grabs, along with 36 in the senate, the upper house.