Hurricane Erin drenches Caribbean islands, threatens US coast
Its outer bands were forecast to bring localized downpours across Cuba and the Dominican Republic through Monday as well as the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas -- where a tropical storm warning is in place -- through Tuesday.
These areas could receive localized totals of up to six inches (15 centimeters) of rain, according to the NHC.
In Puerto Rico, a US territory of more than three million people, weekend flooding swamped homes and roads in the island's east, and widespread power outages left residents in the dark, though service has since been restored to more than 96 percent of customers.
Although Erin's core will remain over the Atlantic as it begins curving northeast this week, "Erin is expected to grow rather dramatically in size," warned NHC director Michael Brennan, stressing that peripheral impacts will be significant.
By Tuesday, the entire US East Coast will face a high risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, which occur when channels of water surge away from the shore.
Coastal flooding, particularly along North Carolina's Outer Banks, is expected to begin Tuesday and peak Wednesday into Thursday, with portions of highway at risk of ocean overwash. Evacuations have been ordered off two islands, Ocracoke and Hatteras.
Wave heights of 20–30 feet (6-9 meters) -- at times exceeding 50 feet -- will create treacherous marine conditions across the western Atlantic.
The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, has now entered its historical peak.
Despite a relatively quiet start with just four named storms so far, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) continues to forecast an "above-normal" season.
A typical season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes and three strengthen into major hurricanes.
This year, tropical activity is expected to be elevated by a combination of warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, along with an active West African monsoon, NOAA said.
Scientists broadly agree that human-driven climate change is amplifying tropical cyclones.
Warmer oceans release more water vapor, fueling stronger winds, while a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, intensifying rainfall.
Meanwhile, rising seas -- already about a foot higher than a century ago -- mean cyclones are starting from a higher baseline, magnifying storm surges and coastal flooding.
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The US state, still reeling from last year's deadly Hurricane Helene, declared an emergency Tuesday as Erin's worst impacts were predicted to begin from Wednesday evening through Thursday. "Based on the current forecast, we are anticipating coastal flooding from massive waves, tropical storm force winds and tidal and storm surge for much of the state shoreline, especially the Outer Banks, from this evening through Thursday," Governor Josh Stein told reporters. As of Wednesday morning, Erin was churning northward some 350 miles southeast of North Carolina, packing maximum sustained winds of 110 mph (175 kph), according to an update by the National Hurricane Center -- with additional intensification likely over the next day or so. Its unusually large size means tropical-storm-force winds extend hundreds of miles from its center. Additional states of emergency have been declared in three North Carolina counties, with mandatory evacuation orders for Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands. A tropical storm warning has been issued across parts of North Carolina to Virginia. Stein urged residents to heed local warnings and pack disaster bags with enough food, water and supplies to last up to five days -- and to safeguard important documents like their insurance policies. "We have already pre-positioned three swift water rescue teams and 200 National Guard troops to various locations on the coast, along with boats, high clearance vehicles and aircraft," he added. 'Massive' waves Highway 12 -- which runs through the scenic Outer Banks, a string of low-lying islands and spits already under threat from sea-level rise and erosion -- could be left impassable by waves that reach as high as 20 feet. Last year's Hurricane Helene caused approximately $60 billion worth of damage to North Carolina, equivalent to almost two-year's worth of the state's budget, said Stein, who criticized what he called inadequate federal assistance from the administration of President Donald Trump. Trump has mused about dismantling the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which has long been a target of conspiracy theories from the political right. "This one appears to be localizing on North Carolina, but many of the storms hit an entire region. The scale of these storms are massive," Stein said, adding it was essential "that we keep and improve FEMA." Beyond the flooding risks focused on North Carolina, nearly the whole of the US East Coast meanwhile is threatened by rip currents, powerful surges that run against the tide. Insurance risks The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, has entered its historical peak. Despite a relatively quiet start with just four named storms so far, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration continues to forecast an above-normal season. Scientists say that climate change is supercharging tropical cyclones: warmer oceans fuel stronger winds, a warmer atmosphere intensifies rainfall, and higher sea levels magnify storm surge. There is also some evidence, though less certainty, that climate change is making hurricanes more frequent. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently warned that climate change will shrink mortgage availability across swaths of the United States in the coming years as banks and insurers retreat from fire- and flood-prone regions.
