US eyes fighter drones to contain China's surging air power

Asia Times

07-03-2025

The YFQ-42A and YFQ-44A unmanned fighter prototypes mark a seismic shift in US air combat strategy, but cost overruns, production delays and industrial constraints threaten to stall America's push for affordable mass to counter China's surging military force.
This month, Air & Space Forces Magazine reported that US Air Force Chief of Staff General David Allvin unveiled the military's groundbreaking fighter drones at the AFA Warfare Symposium in Aurora, Colorado.
Developed by US defense contractors General Atomics and Anduril Industries, respectively, these Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) are part of the Air Force's Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) portfolio, marking a pivotal shift toward manned-unmanned teaming in aerial combat.
The YFQ-42A and YFQ-44A, designed to function as 'loyal wingmen,' will accompany crewed fighters like the F-35, enhancing air dominance at reduced costs and within tight timelines.
Employing prototype designation codes—'Y' for prototype, 'F' for fighter, and 'Q' for unmanned—the announcement underscores a strategic evolution toward integrating semi-autonomous aircraft into contested environments.
Anduril hailed the development as a transformative step in air superiority, emphasizing affordability, mass production and enhanced capabilities. General Atomics echoed this, noting the YFQ-42A's crucial role in expanding mission capacities alongside current and future aircraft.
Allvin framed this innovation as essential to modernization, offering the Trump administration's Pentagon versatile options for addressing emerging global security challenges in an increasingly dangerous and dynamic era.
In framing US tactical imperatives to expedite CCA development, Heather Penney mentions in an October 2022 report for the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies that CCAs increase combat mass, creating a more attrition-tolerant force that enables riskier yet more decisive operations.
Penney says that by teaming with piloted aircraft, CCA can serve as decoys, missile sinks or electronic warfare platforms to disrupt enemy targeting and extend the survivability of human pilots.
She adds that their autonomous features, such as AI-based threat detection and adaptable movements, improve operational agility in challenging contexts while compensating for the decline of human skills during extended combat since their performance relies on software enhancements instead of lengthy pilot training.
Such attritable, semi-autonomous mass may be critical in a near-peer adversary conflict in which the US may be seriously outnumbered.
In a March 2024 article for Air & Space Forces Magazine, Daniel Rice mentions that China could produce 100 J-20 airframes a year, compared to the US F-22, which the US stopped production in 2011 at just 187 irreplaceable planes.
Rice says China has stepped up production of other fighter variants, producing 100 J-16s and 40 low-end J-10 fighters annually. He contrasts that with US F-35 production, pointing out that while the US produces 135 F-35s yearly, 60 to 70 planes are sold to allies.
While the development of unmanned fighters has led some, such as Elon Musk, to question the utility of manned fighters, AI in this area still faces significant hurdles.
In a December 2024 SOFREP article, Brigadier General Doug Wickert, commander of the 412th Test Wing, mentions that fully robotized warfare is still far off, saying it could be 'centuries' before AI pilots replace humans.
Wickert says these systems are far from flawless, as shown by test flights revealing inconsistencies necessitating rigorous safety measures and fallbacks for human intervention.
Moreover, the US may be facing debates regarding the direction of its CCA program. In a December 2024 National Defense Magazine article, Andrew Hunter, the US Air Force's acquisition chief, highlights trade-offs between cost and capability, emphasizing user engagement and thorough analysis.
Hunter says that affordability demands sacrificing certain features, while capability enhancements require accepting higher costs. He also mentions that sustainment costs promise reductions due to limited training needs and shorter operational lifespans, but achieving balance remains crucial for future force design and industrial competition.
Apart from AI limitations and debates regarding the direction of the US CCA program, cost-death spirals and constraints of the US defense industrial base may leave much to be desired in creating the affordable mass the program promises.
Gregory Allen and Isaac Goldston mention in an August 2024 report for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank that the CCA program faces two significant concerns: cost escalation and production delays.
Allen and Goldston point out that CCA's projected unit price has soared from US$3 million under the Low-Cost Attritable Aircraft Technology (LCAAT) program to $25–30 million. That, they note is still 10 times cheaper than the NGAD.
They also say that while the CCA program aims for 1,000 units, only 100 units are expected for delivery by 2029, which is far behind the urgent timeline suggested by intelligence assessments warning of a possible Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan by 2027.
In line with rising costs, The War Zone (TWZ) reported in January 2025 that cost concerns loom over the second batch of CCAs, making them 20-30% more expensive than the first.
While TWZ mentions that US Air Force officials have resisted the idea of acquiring 'exquisite' stealthy unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAV) in favor of CCAs that could be acquired in more significant numbers, affordability questions loom over major projects such as the NGAD, Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and B-21 Raider bomber fleet.
Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall mentioned that while the CCA should not be an exquisite platform, it is difficult to see how the US Air Force could afford any combination of NGADs, CCAs and stealthy tankers.
A September 2024 US Congressional Research Service (CRS) report outlines the US defense industry's systemic challenges. The report notes that the US defense industrial base is a highly consolidated market, where a handful of large defense contractors dominate production, thus limiting competition and innovation.
The CRS report points out that supply chain vulnerabilities—exacerbated by reliance on foreign sources for critical materials and components—raise concerns about resilience, particularly when the US is involved in great power competition with China and Russia.
In addition, the report says workforce shortages in specialized fields, long production lead times and unpredictable procurement cycles contribute to inefficiencies. It adds that regulatory complexities and acquisition policies slow the integration of emerging technologies into defense systems.
Further, this month's report by the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute says that while China continues to outproduce the US, the US is stuck in a self-perpetuating cycle of budgetary and appropriations dysfunction, eroding its advantage.
However, the report stresses that while those challenges are significant, they are not immutable.