Why Japan should decline Trump's F-47 offer

Asia Times

2 days ago

Trump's surprise F-47 fighter pitch to Japan exposes the deep tensions between alliance loyalty and Tokyo's growing pursuit of strategic autonomy in a world of contested tech, arms sales and sovereignty.
Last month, Asahi Shimbun reported that US President Donald Trump pitched Boeing's F-47 sixth-generation fighter jet and the C-17 transport aircraft to Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba during an unexpected phone call.
Trump, who reportedly praised US military aircraft, casually asked Ishiba whether Japan was interested in acquiring US-made fighters, noting that the F-47—believed to be named in honor of Trump as the 47th US president—would replace the F-22.
Officials say the topic arose because Ishiba had previously shown interest in the C-17, prompting speculation that Trump viewed Japan as a potential defense customer.
Despite Trump's remarks, Japan remained cautious, citing challenges in pilot training and maintenance as key challenges. Japan is concurrently developing a fighter jet with the UK and Italy, complicating procurement decisions.
The call, which took place before Japan's trade negotiator left for the US, defied concerns that Trump would pressure Japan on tariffs. Instead, Trump appeared eager to discuss his Middle East trip and reinforce personal ties with Ishiba.
Some analysts have suggested Trump sought a receptive audience amid criticism of his regional strategy. The two leaders agreed to meet during the upcoming G-7 summit in Canada, where discussions on trade and security could further clarify Japan's defense priorities.
Trump's F-47 pitch underscores Japan's dilemma: whether to invest in a high-tech, alliance-dependent jet that risks eroding its strategic autonomy or hold out for sovereign capabilities that may arrive too late.
In a 2025 Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) report, Sadamasa Oue argues that Japan must acquire sixth-generation fighters in line with its shift from anti-airspace intrusion measures to offensive counter-air operations alongside potential adversaries such as China, which is developing next-generation fighters, including the J-36 and J-50.
Sixth-generation fighter capabilities broadly feature extreme stealth, flight efficiency from subsonic to multi-Mach speeds, 'smart skins' with radar, extremely sensitive sensors, optionally manned capability and directed-energy weapons.
However, Brandon Weichert argues in a May 2024 article for 1945 that the advent of autonomous systems could make another expensive manned warplane system, such as the F-47, wasteful.
Weichert contends that as drone technology advances, it gradually takes on the characteristics and capabilities of manned systems.
He says that the current crop of fifth-generation aircraft, such as the F-35 that Japan already operates, continues to be upgraded to keep pace with evolving threats from near-peer adversaries.
In line with that, Breaking Defense reported last month that a 'fifth-generation plus' F-35 could have optionally manned capability as part of upgrades that aim to bring the aircraft to '80% sixth-generation capability' at 'half the price.'
Trump's F-47 pitch highlights Japan's struggle to balance its reliance on alliances with the need for strategic independence, especially as delays in its Global Combat Air Program (GCAP) raise concerns about the UK and Italy's commitment to the trilateral project.
The Japan Times reported last month that Japan is growing increasingly doubtful that the GCAP program will meet its 2035 target date and could be pushed into the 2040s due to a perceived lack of urgency from the UK and Italy.
However, the US has a checkered record of sharing sensitive fighter technology with Japan. Mario Daniels points out in a July 2024 article published in the peer-reviewed History and Technology journal that during the FSX jet fighter controversy in the 1980s and 1990s, the US withheld advanced fighter jet technology from Japan due to fears that sharing dual-use technology would erode its economic and military superiority.
Daniels says at the time, US officials increasingly viewed Japan as a formidable high-tech competitor whose access to US aerospace know-how could empower its civilian aircraft industry to rival Boeing.
As a result, he notes that the US initially imposed export controls, which were originally devised for the Soviet bloc, against Japan.
He says these controls black-boxed critical systems, such as software, radar, and composite materials, to prevent irreversible technological transfer and preserve US strategic advantage.
Further, Christopher Hughes points out in a March 2025 article in the peer-reviewed Defense Studies journal that as Japan moves up the defense production ladder into more sensitive technologies that could compete with the US, the latter could increase demands on the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) to buy its equipment to strengthen interoperability and alleviate trade frictions.
Hughes pointed out that Trump was transactional in managing the US-Japan alliance, insisting that Japan purchase possibly overpriced US equipment in politically motivated deals for security guarantees, even if that hardware may not align with Japan's defense requirements.
Japan's changing arms export policies may also play into US concerns about getting outcompeted by Japan in weapon sales. In March 2024, the Associated Press (AP) reported that Japan's cabinet approved a plan to sell future GCAP next-generation fighter jets co-developed with the UK and Italy to other countries.
'In order to achieve a fighter aircraft that meets the necessary performance and to avoid jeopardizing the defense of Japan, it is necessary to transfer finished products from Japan to countries other than partner countries,' said Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, as quoted in the report.
However, maintaining strategic autonomy when it comes to critical capabilities could be a significant factor in any Japan decision not to acquire F-47s.
'The desire to retain significant sovereign capabilities in each of the three (Japan, UK, Italy) nations… is being reinforced by the concerns around the US's behavior,' says Andrew Howard, director of Future Combat Air at Leonardo UK, as quoted in a Financial Times article last month.
The F-35 is a case study in how the US maintains control over exported military hardware. Brent Eastwood writes in a March 2025 article for 1945 that rumors have persisted about a 'kill switch' being installed in exported F-35s, which would act as a means to veto geopolitical behavior that is against its interests.
While the US F-35 Joint Program Office (JPO) states that no such kill switch exists, Stacey Pettyjohn warns in a March 2025 Breaking Defense article that the US could cut off maintenance networks, suspend spare parts shipments and stop critical software updates.
Without those, Pettyjohn said the F-35 could still fly, but it would be far more vulnerable to enemy air defenses and fighters, and without US spare parts and maintenance, its international operators would struggle to keep the jets flying.
In a world of contested skies and transactional diplomacy, Japan's next jet won't just define its airpower—it will define its strategic independence.