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Asia Times
4 days ago
- Business
- Asia Times
Why Japan should decline Trump's F-47 offer
Trump's surprise F-47 fighter pitch to Japan exposes the deep tensions between alliance loyalty and Tokyo's growing pursuit of strategic autonomy in a world of contested tech, arms sales and sovereignty. Last month, Asahi Shimbun reported that US President Donald Trump pitched Boeing's F-47 sixth-generation fighter jet and the C-17 transport aircraft to Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba during an unexpected phone call. Trump, who reportedly praised US military aircraft, casually asked Ishiba whether Japan was interested in acquiring US-made fighters, noting that the F-47—believed to be named in honor of Trump as the 47th US president—would replace the F-22. Officials say the topic arose because Ishiba had previously shown interest in the C-17, prompting speculation that Trump viewed Japan as a potential defense customer. Despite Trump's remarks, Japan remained cautious, citing challenges in pilot training and maintenance as key challenges. Japan is concurrently developing a fighter jet with the UK and Italy, complicating procurement decisions. The call, which took place before Japan's trade negotiator left for the US, defied concerns that Trump would pressure Japan on tariffs. Instead, Trump appeared eager to discuss his Middle East trip and reinforce personal ties with Ishiba. Some analysts have suggested Trump sought a receptive audience amid criticism of his regional strategy. The two leaders agreed to meet during the upcoming G-7 summit in Canada, where discussions on trade and security could further clarify Japan's defense priorities. Trump's F-47 pitch underscores Japan's dilemma: whether to invest in a high-tech, alliance-dependent jet that risks eroding its strategic autonomy or hold out for sovereign capabilities that may arrive too late. In a 2025 Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) report, Sadamasa Oue argues that Japan must acquire sixth-generation fighters in line with its shift from anti-airspace intrusion measures to offensive counter-air operations alongside potential adversaries such as China, which is developing next-generation fighters, including the J-36 and J-50. Sixth-generation fighter capabilities broadly feature extreme stealth, flight efficiency from subsonic to multi-Mach speeds, 'smart skins' with radar, extremely sensitive sensors, optionally manned capability and directed-energy weapons. However, Brandon Weichert argues in a May 2024 article for 1945 that the advent of autonomous systems could make another expensive manned warplane system, such as the F-47, wasteful. Weichert contends that as drone technology advances, it gradually takes on the characteristics and capabilities of manned systems. He says that the current crop of fifth-generation aircraft, such as the F-35 that Japan already operates, continues to be upgraded to keep pace with evolving threats from near-peer adversaries. In line with that, Breaking Defense reported last month that a 'fifth-generation plus' F-35 could have optionally manned capability as part of upgrades that aim to bring the aircraft to '80% sixth-generation capability' at 'half the price.' Trump's F-47 pitch highlights Japan's struggle to balance its reliance on alliances with the need for strategic independence, especially as delays in its Global Combat Air Program (GCAP) raise concerns about the UK and Italy's commitment to the trilateral project. The Japan Times reported last month that Japan is growing increasingly doubtful that the GCAP program will meet its 2035 target date and could be pushed into the 2040s due to a perceived lack of urgency from the UK and Italy. However, the US has a checkered record of sharing sensitive fighter technology with Japan. Mario Daniels points out in a July 2024 article published in the peer-reviewed History and Technology journal that during the FSX jet fighter controversy in the 1980s and 1990s, the US withheld advanced fighter jet technology from Japan due to fears that sharing dual-use technology would erode its economic and military superiority. Daniels says at the time, US officials increasingly viewed Japan as a formidable high-tech competitor whose access to US aerospace know-how could empower its civilian aircraft industry to rival Boeing. As a result, he notes that the US initially imposed export controls, which were originally devised for the Soviet bloc, against Japan. He says these controls black-boxed critical systems, such as software, radar, and composite materials, to prevent irreversible technological transfer and preserve US strategic advantage. Further, Christopher Hughes points out in a March 2025 article in the peer-reviewed Defense Studies journal that as Japan moves up the defense production ladder into more sensitive technologies that could compete with the US, the latter could increase demands on the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) to buy its equipment to strengthen interoperability and alleviate trade frictions. Hughes pointed out that Trump was transactional in managing the US-Japan alliance, insisting that Japan purchase possibly overpriced US equipment in politically motivated deals for security guarantees, even if that hardware may not align with Japan's defense requirements. Japan's changing arms export policies may also play into US concerns about getting outcompeted by Japan in weapon sales. In March 2024, the Associated Press (AP) reported that Japan's cabinet approved a plan to sell future GCAP next-generation fighter jets co-developed with the UK and Italy to other countries. 'In order to achieve a fighter aircraft that meets the necessary performance and to avoid jeopardizing the defense of Japan, it is necessary to transfer finished products from Japan to countries other than partner countries,' said Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, as quoted in the report. However, maintaining strategic autonomy when it comes to critical capabilities could be a significant factor in any Japan decision not to acquire F-47s. 'The desire to retain significant sovereign capabilities in each of the three (Japan, UK, Italy) nations… is being reinforced by the concerns around the US's behavior,' says Andrew Howard, director of Future Combat Air at Leonardo UK, as quoted in a Financial Times article last month. The F-35 is a case study in how the US maintains control over exported military hardware. Brent Eastwood writes in a March 2025 article for 1945 that rumors have persisted about a 'kill switch' being installed in exported F-35s, which would act as a means to veto geopolitical behavior that is against its interests. While the US F-35 Joint Program Office (JPO) states that no such kill switch exists, Stacey Pettyjohn warns in a March 2025 Breaking Defense article that the US could cut off maintenance networks, suspend spare parts shipments and stop critical software updates. Without those, Pettyjohn said the F-35 could still fly, but it would be far more vulnerable to enemy air defenses and fighters, and without US spare parts and maintenance, its international operators would struggle to keep the jets flying. In a world of contested skies and transactional diplomacy, Japan's next jet won't just define its airpower—it will define its strategic independence.
Euronews
08-04-2025
- Business
- Euronews
Can Giorgia Meloni help the EU avoid a trade war with the US?
ADVERTISEMENT Could Italian Prime Minister Meloni be help the EU avert a trade war with the United States by intervening successfully with Trump? What strategy is she pursuing? Radio Schuman explores these questions today in conversation with Federico Castiglioni, a researcher at the Italian think tank Istituto Affari Internazionali. Following Trump's announcement of 20% tariffs on EU imports, Meloni stood was one of the few European leaders to caution against escalating, warning that retaliation by the EU would be the worst possible response. Italian media report that she has the implicit support of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and is seen as one of the few EU figures with a constructive relationship with Trump. Radio Schuman also looks as a new opportunity for young people to travel by train this Summer. Radio Schuman is hosted and produced by Maïa de la Baume, with journalist and production assistant Eleonora Vasques, audio editing by David Brodheim. Music by Alexandre Jas.
The Guardian
27-01-2025
- Business
- The Guardian
European capitals tread cautiously after week of mixed salvoes from Trump
European leaders had nearly got to the end of the first week of living with Donald Trump back in the White House, with the sole consoling thought that it might have been worse. But then the re-elected and reinvigorated president started talking about Greenland again. Any hope that the US acquisition of the autonomous arctic territory from Denmark was just a passing whim was dispelled by his insistence over the weekend that 'I think we're going to have it', amid reports that he had threatened Copenhagen with targeted tariffs, an extortion campaign against a close Nato ally. 'In Trump 1, it was this weird thing, that he was going to buy Greenland, but this time there is more clarity,' said Nathalie Tocci, the director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali thinktank in Italy, said. 'He has said he is ready to use economic and military coercion to take it.' Prior to that, European capitals could point to a few glints of consolation from Trump's barnstorming first few days. While he railed against the US trade deficit, Trump did not immediately announce tariffs on European goods (although he made clear they were coming) and his first move on Ukraine was to put pressure on Vladimir Putin. His demand that European Nato allies spend 5% of GDP on defence was so unrealistic it was not taken seriously, and, for now, the president has muted earlier threats to walk out of the alliance. 'Nobody thinks he's going to actually do that,' said Leslie Vinjamuri, the director of the US and Americas programme at the Chatham House thinktank. 'His nominees are mostly solidly onboard with Nato, and he has gone silent on the threat of withdrawal.' In response to these mixed early salvoes, Europe has trod cautiously. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, did not even mention Trump by name. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, and Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, met in Paris on Wednesday to project a unified front at the EU's core, and calm in the face of Trump's so far vague – but determined – tariff threat to Europe. Scholz admitted that Trump would be a 'challenge' but he added: 'Our position is clear. Europe is a large economic area with around 450 million citizens. We are strong. We stand together. Europe will not duck and hide.' Macron looked to the silver lining that the new administration in Washington would make it more necessary than ever for Paris and Berlin to consolidate 'a united, strong and sovereign Europe'. Europe at the moment does not feel any of those things. Macron and Scholz are in weak positions domestically. The German chancellor is likely to be in his last few weeks in office as the country approaches elections on 23 February. Across the continent, the far right is on the rise, offering itself as an ally to Trump in undermining such European cohesion. The most established among the hard-right leaders, the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, hailed the Trump inauguration as a tipping point in the struggle for Europe's soul. 'Hereby I launch the second phase of the offensive that aims to occupy Brussels,' Orbán said. Another ultra-nationalist, the Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, was the only European leader invited to Trump's inauguration. He has hailed her as a 'fantastic woman' and she has presented herself as a transatlantic bridge to the new administration and Europe – 'consolidating the dialogue between the United States and Europe'. Some of Meloni's fellow European leaders hope that she can leverage Trump's fondness for her and her politics to soften his approach to the whole continent. Italy has a lot to lose from a hostile Washington, with a €42.1bn ($43.6bn) trade surplus with the US, the second highest in the EU after Germany, and defence spending well below the current goal of 2% GDP. What influence Meloni might have on Trump is very much in question, however. She was not given a hoped-for private meeting with the new president when she was in Washington. 'It is just naive to believe that a nationalist Eurosceptic will all of a sudden become the sort of spokeswoman for Europe, rather than being Trump's spokeswoman in Europe,' Tocci said. Trump's return to Washington has also underlined the UK's vulnerability outside the EU, with London's threat of retaliatory sanctions far less of a deterrent than Europe combined. 'The EU is probably big enough to protect itself from Trump's tariffs. I'm not convinced the UK is,' Anand Menon, European politics professor at King's College London, said. 'In a way, one of the things that Trump shows us is that outside of the European Union, the UK finds itself quite exposed in these troubled times,' Menon told a London School of Economics blog. The UK prime minister, Keir Starmer, played down the fact that he was not invited to the inauguration alongside Trump favourites Meloni and the Argentinian president, Javier Milei. A Conservative predecessor, the former prime minister Boris Johnson, was the only British politician inside the Capitol Rotunda for the ceremony. The Reform leader, Nigel Farage, attended inauguration parties where Republicans hailed him as Britain's 'future prime minister'. While the phrase 'special relationship' is unlikely to have much usage in the coming months, Downing Street insisted Starmer congratulated Trump on his inauguration and noted that the two leaders had spoken several times before it. Further complicating an already fraught situation, it is hard for western European capitals to know whether they are dealing with just Trump or a Trump-Musk administration. Britain and the EU have legislation regulating social media platforms that could seriously affect Elon Musk and X. The UK's Online Safety Act is in the process of being codified, and would penalise X if it fails to take down illegal material. Concerns are felt across Europe that attempts to regulate X and other US-based platforms will lead to reprisals from a Trump administration, but Vinjamuri believes that X, with its relentless promotion of the far right, is too big a threat to ignore. 'I don't think Europe has any alternative but to push back against Musk and to do something about trying to counter this very powerful technological platform,' she said. Spain's socialist prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has offered Trump polite though hardly effusive congratulations on his inauguration. But he spoke out sharply about Musk. 'The owner of a small restaurant is responsible if their food poisons customers; social media tycoons should be held responsible if their algorithms poison our society, Sánchez, adding his own twist on the Trump own mantra. 'Let's take back control. Let's make social media great again.' Trump's merger with Musk is not the only reason his second term looks more threatening as seen from Europe than the first. It is also the fact his leadership is no longer seen as an aberration, and at a time when Europe's own cohesion is waning. 'Trump 1 was really perceived as this blip in history, whereas now Trump 2 has all the flavour of ongoing regime change in the United States,' Tocci said. 'That has very deep implications for Europe.'
