MIAA boys' basketball tournament: Favorites, sleepers, and analysis for Divisions 1-5
Favorites:
No. 1 Franklin (21-1), No. 3 Newton North (20-1).
Sleepers:
No. 13 Brookline (16-6), No. 15 Catholic Memorial (12-8).
Best preliminary-round matchup:
Monday, No. 38 Everett (10-10) at No. 27 BC High (8-12), 6:30 p.m.
Analysis:
For the first time in a few years, Division 1 appears wide open with no prohibitive favorite. There are over a dozen teams with a legitimate shot to win it all and several first-round matchups that could just as easily be quarterfinals or semifinals meetings. Some of the best first-round bouts feature Middlesex League matchups with No. 24 Boston Latin (19-1) at No. 9 Winchester (16-4), No. 21 Lincoln-Sudbury (16-4) at No. 12 Arlington (18-4), and No. 22 Lexington (15-5) at No. 11 Braintree (17-3). No. 19 Xaverian (10-10) takes a contrasting style of play to face fast-paced No. 14 Marshfield (16-4) and we have a battle of Catholic powers with No. 15 Catholic Memorial (12-8) set to host No. 18 Bishop Feehan (16-4). Newton North (20-1) has yet to lose against an in-state opponent, but could face seasoned No. 6 Andover (14-6) or another tough opponent early on in the tournament. Merrimack Valley rivals No. 4 Central Catholic (17-2) and No. 5 Lowell (18-2) could meet in the quarterfinals if No. 13 Brookline (16-6) or another higher seed doesn't upset the apple cart. Keep an eye on No. 8 Bridgewater-Raynham (16-4), which entered the tournament having won 12 of 13, including a number of dramatic wins.
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Longest road trip:
Tuesday, No. 34 Durfee (11-9) at No. 31 Putnam Vocational Tech (11-7), 102 miles
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PLAYERS TO WATCH
Javi Lopez
, Central Catholic
— Already a 1,000-point scorer, the junior guard has improved each year, and he'll look to take another step with a big state tournament performance.
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Alan Shi
, Brookline
— Nearly 7 feet tall with good footwork and defensive instincts, the McGill-committed senior center is averaging 20 points, 14 rebounds, and 4 blocks; he's a problem for opponents at both ends of the floor.
Caden Sullivan
, Franklin
— The 6-foot-2-inch shooting guard has paced the Panthers with averages of 21.8 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 steals per game.
Teagan Swint
, Newton North
— Few players can rival Swint in terms of reliable scoring. Pencil the senior wing in for 15 to 30 points just about every time the Tigers take the floor, regardless of how teams aim to stop him.
Will White
, Boston Latin
— Only a sophomore, the 5-7 combo guard is averaging 18 points per game with clutch play to help the Wolfpack post a 19-1 record.
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Division 2
Favorite:
No. 1 Malden Catholic (18-1).
Sleeper:
No. 6 Somerset Berkley (19-1).
Best preliminary-round matchup:
Monday, No. 36 Marblehead (11-9) at No. 29 Archbishop Williams (10-10), 6:30 p.m.
Analysis:
It seems no team will be able to stop No. 1 Malden Catholic (18-1) from winning a fourth straight Division 2 state title. The Lancers
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Longest Road Trip:
Thursday, No. 20 Wakefield (10-10) at No. 13 Holyoke (15-4), 105 miles
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Cole Craffey
, Oliver Ames —
Transferring back to Oliver Ames after playing at Brimmer & May last year, the senior combo guard has led the Tigers on a 10-game win streak to cap the season, including the program's first win over Mansfield since 2008.
Matt Gaffney
, Malden Catholic
— With three state titles already, the senior guard has the rare opportunity to win a fourth straight championship and finish his career with an unblemished record in the state tournament.
Brendan McDonald
, Somerset-Berkley
— After starring at quarterback for the Raiders last fall, the senior point guard has orchestrated a 19-1 season while averaging 13.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 5.3 assists with 52 steals and 35 3-pointers.
Jack Millward
, Wakefield
—
Kobe Nguyen and Aidan McGrath
, North Quincy
— Nguyen is a senior captain averaging 17.3 points per game with more than 1,000 points for his career, leading a young Raiders team that includes a pair of fabulous freshman, including McGrath, who averages 17.1 points and 8.3 rebounds per game.
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Division 3
Favorite:
No. 1 St. Mary's (21-1)
Sleeper:
No. 8 Abington (17-5)
Best preliminary-round matchup:
Tuesday, No. 34 Dennis-Yarmouth (12-9) at No. 31 Medway (14-6), 6 p.m.
Analysis:
Led by standout guard JJ Martinez, St. Mary's is the team to beat after rolling through the regular season, capped by a 60-58 nonleague win at No. 3 Newburyport (18-2) on Feb. 12 in a potential state final preview. No. 2 Norwell (20-0) looks to keep cruising after a dominant regular season, in which the team won by double digits in all but two games. Led by two 1,000-point scorers — forward Matt Breen and guard Franck Moron — No. 4 Shawsheen (18-2) is another contender. And even after losing stars Jaylin Williams-Crawford and Jaylen Hunter-Coleman from
Longest Road Trip:
Friday,
No. 17 Pittsfield (14-6) at No. 16 Lynn Classical (16-4), 147 miles.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
JJ Martinez
, St. Mary's
— The junior has established himself as one of the best guards in the state. Martinez scored his 1,000th career point in a 69-55 win over East Boston on Feb. 10.
Matt Breen and Franck Moron
, Shawsheen
— The 6-9 Breen has averaged 18.5 points and 15 rebounds per game, and Moron, a point guard, has posted 18 points, 15 rebounds, and 3 steals per game.
Carson Gretz
, Newburyport
— The senior has been the catalyst for the Clippers all year, averaging 17 points and seven rebounds per game. He's 41 points away from 1,000.
Kingston Maxwell
, Abington
— A 6-3 junior forward, Maxwell has powered the Green Wave's electric offense, which has scored at least 80 points five times this year.
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Will Carty
, Watertown
— One of the top big men in the state, the 6-9 Carty has averaged a 20-point double-double for the Raiders.
Division 4
Favorites:
No. 1 Holland Tech/Burke (17-3), No. 2 Bourne (17-3).
Sleepers:
No. 4 Millbury (16-6), No. 8 Lynn Tech (12-8).
Best preliminary-round matchup:
Tuesday, No. 42 South Shore Voc-Tech (10-10) at No. 23 O'Bryant (11-9), 5:30 p.m.
Analysis:
No. 4 Millbury (16-6) and No. 2 Bourne (17-3) are both looking for redemption after Wareham took both programs down in
Longest road trip:
Monday, No. 41 Upper Cape Tech (12-8) at No. 24 Wahconah Regional (8-12), 172 miles
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Ethan Bowen and Dimitri Mendes, Cathedral —
Bowen, a 5-10 sophomore shooting guard, is averaging 15 points and 4 steals per game, while classmate Mendes has averaged 14 points and 6 assists at point guard.
Johnny Chareas
, Manchester Essex —
The senior captain is averaging 17 points and 8 rebounds per game, leading the Hornets on both ends after playing a complementary role alongside star guard Cade Furse last season.
Mike Dankert and Nate Reynolds
, Bourne —
The twin towers are both 6-4 with good size and skill, capable of putting it on the floor to blow past bigger defenders, or punishing smaller defenders on the glass. That recipe led the Canalmen to the state final last year.
Jasaad Fenton
, Holland (Burke)
— The veteran point guard has led the Bulldogs to three Boston City League titles in four years and is peaking in his senior year with averages of 21 points, 11 assists, and 4 steals per game.
Giovanni Jean
, Lynn Tech
— The junior reached 1,000 points this season and led the Tigers to a strong finish with 29 points and five assists in a 58-54 win over previously unbeaten St. Mary's in the Spartan Classic.
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Division 5
Favorite:
No. 1 Pioneer Valley Regional (21-0), No. 5 Boston English (13-10)
Sleeper:
No. 11 Westport (14-6)
Best preliminary-round matchup:
Tuesday, No. 34 Abby Kelley Foster (16-4) at No. 31 Hampden East (11-8), 6 p.m.
Analysis:
Western Mass teams claimed three of the field's top four seeds, with No. 1 Pioneer Valley Regional in pole position after a 20-0 regular season. But the Boston City League is well represented at the top of the bracket, too. No. 5 English High (13-10),
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Longest Road Trip:
TBA, No. 19 Rockport (7-13) at No. 14 Lee (14-6), 163 miles.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Owen Boudria, Westport
— Boudria has had a terrific senior season, averaging nearly 28 points per game. He's tallied multiple 40-point efforts, and is 33 points away from eclipsing the program's all-time record.
Janeudy Brea Collins, English High
— A dynamic guard, Brea Collins powered the Blue & Blue to a
Sebastian Garcia, Notre Dame Cristo Rey —
The Panthers have enjoyed their best season in school history, and Garcia has been at the center of the success, averaging 20 points per game.
Patrick Madden, Hopedale —
A senior combo guard, Madden powered the Blue Raiders to an 18-2 regular season. He scored his 1,000th career point in a win over Wayland on Dec. 30.
Kurt Redeker, Pioneer Valley
— The senior averaged nearly 20 points per game and scored his 1,000th career point in Saturday's 57-39 win over Duggan to capture the Western Mass Class D title.
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