NCAA Tournament Sweet 16: How Do No. 1 Seeds Do In March Madness?

Forbes

25-03-2025

Tyrese Proctor #5, Sion James #14, and Cooper Flagg #2 of the Duke Blue Devils celebrate in the ... More first half against the Baylor Bears in the second round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Lenovo Center on March 23, 2025 in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)
The men's 2025 NCAA Tournament rolls on to the Sweet 16 and the top teams are still dancing in March Madness. The Southeastern Conference (SEC) had a record 14 teams in the NCAA Tournament, and seven remain with one head-to-head matchup in the Sweet 16 between No. 2 Tennessee and No. 3 Kentucky in the Midwest region. The four No. 1 seeds will try to overcome recent history with Auburn, Florida, Houston and Duke taking to the court against one No. 5 seed and three No. 4 seeds in the Sweet Sixteen.
College basketball betting lines, odds and over/under game totals by region courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change including on props and live betting. All times Eastern.
Thursday, March 27
East - Prudential Center (Newark, NJ) - CBS
Not available to bet in New Jersey
West - Chase Center (San Francisco, CA) - TBS
Friday, March 28
South - State Farm Arena (Atlanta, GA) - CBS
Midwest - Lucas Oil Stadium, (Indianapolis, IN) - TBS
Duke has won 13 in a row and 29 of its last 30 games after scoring 93 and 89 points in the opening two NCAA Tournament games to move back to No. 1 in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Blue Devils sport a 57.9% effective field goal percentage to rank No. 3 in the country. Duke is also the only team to rank top-5 in offensive and defensive efficiency ratings with their 44.1% effective field goal defense No. 1 in the country. However, Duke is the only ACC team remaining and from the weakest conference of the remaining teams. Still, Duke has scored on 79 of 123 possessions (64.2%) through two games and is averaging 1.48 points per possession. By comparison, UConn began its blowout-filled March last year to a second straight NCAA title by averaging 1.29 points per possession and scoring on 59.7% of its possessions in the opening weekend.
Florida is 14-1 since a blowout loss at Tennessee Feb. 1. The Gators rolled through the SEC tournament as champions and were on a 6-0 ATS run until failing to cover both NCAA Tournament games in victory. The Gators are the nation's No. 2 efficiency offense with an elite offensive rebounding team. Florida is also a top defensive team ranking No. 11 in adjusted efficiency and top-5 in effective field goal defense (45.4%) and 3-point defense (29.3%). The Gators are in the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 for the first time since 2017 and shooting for their first national championship since back-to-back titles in 2006 and 2007.
Most experts believe Auburn has the 'easiest' path to the national semifinals. A win over No. 5 Michigan is considered most likely, although No. 1 seeds in this round are just 3-6 the last three years with all nine of those games against No. 4 or 5 seeds. Next would be either No. 6 Ole Miss, who Auburn has beaten three times this season, or No. 2 Michigan State. KenPom ratings and research notes that a top-2 NCAA Tournament seed has never made a Final Four if they began the year outside the preseason AP Top 25 like Michigan State. Auburn held the No. 1 spot in the AP Top 25 men's college basketball poll for eight consecutive weeks before Duke took over the top spot on March 10. The Tigers were 25-2 with 14 Quad 1 wins in late February including a road win over No. 2 Alabama. Auburn ranks No. 3 in adjusted offensive efficiency despite No. 25 in effective FG percentage shooting (55.6%). Auburn's adjusted defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage are both top-15 with elite 3-point defense (29.6%) and block percentage.
Houston has the country's best defense, trapping and forcing turnovers while allowing just 58.4 points per game in winning the Big 12 regular season and conference tournament title. Houston's 38.4% field goal defense tops college basketball along with Tennessee (38.2%) and Duke (38.3%). The Cougars rank No. 1 in KenPom's adjusted efficiency defense, and their offense is No. 10 with strong offensive rebounding and the No. 1 team in 3-point shooting (39.8%). Houston also plays at the slowest pace of the remaining tournament teams on offense while forcing the longest possession on defense. Houston has made 8-straight Sweet 16's and they'll have to dispatch last year's national championship runner-up Purdue, who has been to 6 of the last 8 including last year's trip to the natinoal championship game. Boilermakers fans will be most supportive making the short 1-hour drive from West Lafayette to Indianapolis for the Midwest Regional.
Stay tuned for more NCAA Tournament coverage, stats and picks with information you can bet on. Recall in last year's Sweet 16 we went 3-0 on picks, and both Purdue and Alabama return for another run to the Final Four. Top-seed Purdue beat No. 2 Tennessee in the Elite Eight last year on their way to the Final Four and championship game. No. 4 Alabama knocked off No. 1 North Carolina in the Sweet Sixteen and another ACC team in Clemson in the Elite Eight to reach the Final Four before losing to eventual champion Connecticut. No. 4 Duke took out No. 1 Houston in last year's Sweet Sixteen but lost to No. 11 NC State in the Elite Eight.
This year's Sweet 16 is also the first since 2007 with zero teams seeded No. 11 or lower.
Still, fans and bettors are enjoying the top seeds and favorites winning more. FanDuel has also provided bettors more options including a Brackets into Bets option with picks across multiple rounds into a single parlay.
No. 1 seeds have won six of the last seven NCAA Tournaments with No. 4 Connecticut winning the national championship in 2023. The No. 1 seeds are 23-8 straight up (SU) in the Sweet 16 since 2014 and the last 10 editions of March Madness. Over the last three years, No. 1 seeds are just 2-7 against the spread (ATS) in the Sweet Sixteen.
See the breakdown below, but No. 1 seeds are now 91-29 SU in the Sweet 16 since 1985, including 76-29 SU vs. teams seeded #4 or #5 but just 3-6 the last three years. Until 2015, No. 1 seeds were getting bounced out of this round going back to 2010. That trend has returned the last three years (3-6), which followed a run of 18-1 SU and 14-5 ATS for No. 1 seeds in the Sweet 16 from 2015-2021.
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020 - Tournament Cancelled
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
FanDuel and leading online sportsbooks adjusted odds to win the 2025 National Championship.
FanDuel sportsbook has taken the most money to win the national championship on Duke followed by Auburn, Florida and Alabama, Houston, Michigan State and Tennessee of the remaining teams.
As noted previously in March Madness coverage, 21 of the last 22 National Champions have finished in the Top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings by KenPom's advanced metrics. Five remaining teams fit the profile.
Also, KenPom offensive and defensive efficiency rankings for Alabama (4,29), Michigan State (25,5), Texas Tech (5,37), Kentucky (11,45), Maryland (22,6), Arizona (12,27), Purdue (7,55), Mississippi (24,21), BYU (9,71), Michigan (39,13) and Arkansas (65,17).
Follow along for more March Madness betting coverage into the Sweet Sixteen and the Elite Eight this weekend as the No. 1 seeds shoot for the Final Four at the Alamodome in San Antonio.
You can bet on it.