When and how will the new pope be elected in the conclave of cardinals at the Vatican?

Irish Times

06-05-2025

When does the election of the new pope begin?
At 4.30pm (Rome time) on Wednesday the election of the
Catholic Church
's 267th Pope begins as the 2025 conclave commences in the
Vatican
's Sistine Chapel, following Mass in St Peter's Basilica, celebrated by Dean of the College of Cardinals, Cardinal Battista Re.
How do the ballots work?
There is just one ballot on Wednesday, with four each day thereafter (two in the morning, two in the afternoon). With a two-thirds majority required of the 133 elector cardinals (88 or 89 votes), it is possible that we will have a pope by Thursday evening, probably by Friday and, if not by then, the cardinals (and bookmakers) will get on their knees to pray.
The cardinals will take a day off to reflect before returning to the Sistine Chapel for another seven ballots. If there's still no pope by then, there will be another 24 hour pause before there's a further seven ballots.
If after four such pauses there is still no pope, the cardinals will agree to vote just on the two remaining most popular candidates, with the winner requiring a simple majority only.
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That would hardly be a satisfactory way to begin any papacy.
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What's expected to happen?
To the relief of most, a succession of votes is not expected to be the case with this conclave. The cardinal-electors have been talking among themselves since
Francis
died on Easter Monday. Many of them may not have known one another before then but surely have the measure of one another by now after two weeks of 'general congregations'.
Before the election of Francis in 2013 there were seven such 'general congregations'. By Tuesday afternoon of this week there had been 12. It was expected the conclave itself would begin on Monday, but that was pushed out to Wednesday. In other words, all has been geared towards consensus and a shorter conclave.
Why the hope for a shorter conclave?
This is considered desirable for the next pope and the future of the Catholic Church, suggesting unity.
It would be in keeping with most recent conclaves. Francis was elected in 2013 after five ballots over two days; Pope Benedict XVI in 2005 after four ballots over two days also; Pope John Paul II in 1978 after eight ballots over three days; his predecessor in 1978 also, Pope John Paul I, after four ballots over two days; Pope Paul VI after six ballots over three days; and Pope John XXIII in 1958 after 11 ballots over four days.
When was the longest conclave?
The longest ballot in the 20th century was in 1922 when it took 14 ballots over five days to elect Pius XI. So it is not unreasonable to expect this third conclave of the 21st century to elect a pope by Thursday or Friday.
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Which cardinal should I put my money on?
Gambling on the outcome? If you are a Catholic, you would have been excommunicated for doing so, by decree of Pope Gregory XIV in 1591, but that was allowed lapse by Pope Benedict XV in 1918.
In 2005, the late David Power of Paddy Power bookmakers was escorted from St Peter's Square by security staff after displaying his betting prices there just before the conclave which elected Pope Benedict XVI.
Despite this, as he told media afterwards, the firm took more than €235,000 in bets on the outcome. Cardinal Ratzinger opened at 12-1, but by the eve of that conclave he was 3-1 favourite, with Paddy Power paying out just over €90,000 in winnings.
With Pope Benedict then aged 78, people were already taking bets on his successor just days after his election. 'Like any event when a champion is crowned, we have resumed betting on his likely successor,' Power said at the time. Then, Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio, who was elected Pope Francis in 2013, was at 9-1.
Paddy Power is offering odds on for the favourite Cardinal Pietro Parolin, an Italian, at 5-2, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines at 3-1, and Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, another Italian, at 9-2; with odds of 11-10 on `Habemus Papam' (we have a Pope) by Thursday, and 7-4 by Friday.