Wells Fargo's McKenna on EM FX, Trade Tariffs
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Yahoo
24 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Brazil's fish industry, hit with a 50% US tariff, seeks a lifeline
By Luciana Magalhaes SAO PAULO (Reuters) -Brazil's seafood industry is sounding the alarm to pressure the federal government for immediate relief as it grapples with mounting fears of job losses and bankruptcies as a result of the 50% tariffs the U.S. imposed on most Brazilian exports on Wednesday. The new levies made the future highly uncertain for Brazilian fishing companies, which sell close to $400 million worth of seafood to the U.S. a year, or about 70% of the sector's annual exports. "This situation renders our business unviable," said Arimar França Filho, the head of a fishing union in Brazil's northeastern state of Rio Grande do Norte. "While the domestic market can absorb some of our production, it cannot take it all, and we cannot have all our boats fishing solely for Brazil. "The fish industry is calling for an emergency credit line of 900 million reais ($165 million) to navigate the new economic climate. It is also pushing the government to deepen negotiations aimed at reopening the European market, which has been closed to Brazilian fish exports since 2017. Even as producers scrambled to get their goods to the U.S. ahead of the tariffs that hit on Wednesday, some fishing boats had already been sidelined to prevent excess production, the union leader said. Eduardo Lobo, president of the lobby group Abipesca, said that the sector has no other short-term alternative. "Without credit, it's impossible to maintain inventories, honor commitments, and preserve jobs," he warned in a statement, estimating that the tariffs could affect some 20,000 jobs if authorities fail to respond quickly. "There could be giant unemployment, not tomorrow," said Attilio Sergio Leardini, founding partner at Leardini Pescados, one of Brazil´s largest suppliers, which exports to several countries, including the U.S. "But maybe in six months, in a year, some segments may be halting production." Leardini is most worried about premium products – such as lobster, tuna, and croaker fish – which are highly sought after by the U.S. market but are unlikely to find enough buyers in Brazil, particularly at the prices American consumers pay. Many fishermen are desperate, believing they won't find consumers to pay prices that support a reasonable standard of living for their families. "But as we know, it's not in our control," said França Filho, the union leader. Fishermen, he predicted, will see reduced prices starting this week, while Brazilian consumers are likely to find cheaper fish in the supermarket aisle within a month. That much was happy news to Michel de Oliveira França, the owner of a fish shop in the city of Niteroi, in Rio de Janeiro. "The cheaper, the better," he said. "The tendency is to sell more and more." Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
24 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump's tariff war: Canada's sovereignty is the real issue, trade expert warns
U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war with Canada is ultimately about America's neighbour to the north giving up some of its sovereignty to the United States, according to a trade expert from accounting and consulting giant Pricewaterhousecoopers (PwC). The United States has imposed levies on Canadian steel, aluminum, copper, and certain automotive products. Last week, Trump hit Canada with a 35 per cent tariff on all goods not covered by the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), which he signed during his first presidency in 2018. That's up from 25 per cent last month. Canada's central bank estimates 95 per cent of non-energy exports are compliant with CUSMA, which is due for renegotiation next year. On Sunday, Dominic LeBlanc, Canada's minister responsible for Canada-U.S. trade, said Prime Minister Mark Carney and Trump are set to speak in the coming days. Michael Dobner, PwC's Canadian national leader of economics and policy practice, warns Trump's now well-worn claim that Canada should become 'the 51st state' is far more than negotiation table bluster. 'There is no real trade issue,' he told Yahoo Finance Canada on Tuesday. 'It's clear [Trump] is not willing to do a deal with Canada, and I think the reason for that is his aspirations regarding Canada are not the same as the EU and Japan.' We haven't really had a lot of luck with Canada. I think Canada could be one where they'll just pay tariffs. It's not really a negotiation.U.S. President Donald Trump speaking to reporters at the White House on July 25 According to Yale University's Budget Lab, 'Canada has borne the brunt of the damage from U.S. tariffs so far,' with its long-run economy 2.1 per cent smaller since the start of 2025, by its analysis. Statistics Canada's June trade figures show Canadian exporters did more business with the United States last month, even as tariffs increased. The federal agency says Canada's trade surplus with the U.S. grew to $3.9 billion in June, from $3.5 billion in May. In June of 2024, that figure was $8.4 billion. RBC assistant chief economist Nathan Janzen expects plunging export volumes to 'substantially subtract' from Canada's gross domestic product growth when second-quarter figures are released later in August. Meanwhile, Trump has repeatedly offered to convert Canada from a sovereign nation to 'the 51st state' during his second term as U.S. president. The move would enhance America's access to critical minerals largely controlled by China, and pave the way for U.S. access to new ocean shipping lanes in Canada's Arctic being created by melting sea ice. 'Full alignment' Dobner sees this as the crux of Trump's vision for future U.S.-Canada relations. He says this includes 'full alignment' on issues involving the economy and defence. 'We will stay Canada. You can look at the EU as a potential model here,' Dobner said. 'That means that Canada would, in this kind of arrangement, lose some of its independence in one way or another.' 'That's the big issue, not trade,' he added. With the clock ticking down to CUSMA's expiration, Dobner says PwC's business clients are scrambling to certify products under the agreement. At the same time, he says prolonged uncertainty between Canada and its largest trading partner has 'frozen' capital spending. Linda Hasenfratz, CEO of Guelph, Ont.-based autoparts manufacturer Linamar ( is on the front lines of the Canada-U.S. trade war. In a recent interview with Yahoo Finance Canada, she said if the U.S. were to apply tariffs to CUSMA-compliant autoparts, it would 'bring the industry to its knees,' as many of these items cross the border multiple times before installation in a finished vehicle. 'The Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement has thus far been key to Canada's perceived safety net,' CIBC Capital Markets chief economist Avery Shenfeld wrote in a report last week. 'Canada's edge tied to the USMCA carve-out is also only as durable as the USMCA itself, and it has to be extended by all parties or it expires in 2026. That cloud of uncertainty will hang over capital spending plans in a broad range of Canadian export sectors.' 'Whether any of this lasts will depend on Trump's word,' Shenfeld added. 'We've seen how shaky that foundation can be.' Dobner ultimately sees two paths for Canada: One, suffer the wrath of the Trump administration without a deal in place in the hopes that his successor will favour free trade, while businesses attempt to diversify their customer base. 'The other option is to get to some kind of economic union that is not a full annexation, so to speak, by the United States,' he said. 'Is it possible? Yes, I think it is. It depends how big the hardships that the U.S. administration is willing to put on Canada to push it towards that.' Jeff Lagerquist is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on X @jefflagerquist. Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for Apple and Android. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
24 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Tech shares lift Wall St futures on tariff exemption hopes
(Reuters) -U.S. stock index futures rose on Thursday, pointing to fresh gains on Wall Street, on signs that major technology companies will avoid President Donald Trump's latest tariffs on chip imports. Apple's shares climbed 3.2% in premarket trading, having risen 5.1% and led gains on Wall Street in the prior session, after Trump said the iPhone maker will invest an additional $100 billion in the U.S., bringing its total commitment to $600 billion over the next four years. Trump also announced a tariff of about 100% on imports of semiconductors but said it would not apply to companies that are manufacturing in the U.S. or have committed to do so. Shares of chipmakers including Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and Intel rose in the range of 1.2% to 2.5%. At 06:16 a.m. ET, S&P 500 E-minis were up 53.75 points, or 0.84%, Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 197 points, or 0.84%, and Dow E-minis were up 274 points, or 0.62%. The president's higher tariffs of 10% to 50% on dozens of trading partners took effect on Thursday. Still, expectations of policy easing by the Federal Reserve - sparked by some disappointing economic data, particularly the July payrolls report - as well as optimism around AI spending by companies have kept markets near record highs. Following the latest jobs data, traders have almost fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut in September and expect at least two rate cuts this year, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Weekly jobless claims data, due at 08:30 a.m. ET, could offer fresh clues on the health of the labor market and shift rate cut expectations. Investors are also watching for Trump's interim replacement for Fed Governor Adriana Kugler in the coming days, amid expectations that the nominee would be a policy dove who will likely favor bringing interest rates lower. Kugler's resignation leaves an opening at the seven-member Fed Board led by Chair Jerome Powell, who Trump has repeatedly criticized for not cutting borrowing costs. Powell's tenure is due to end in May 2025. Second-quarter earnings barrage continued at full throttle. DoorDash topped revenue estimates and forecasted a stronger-than-expected gross merchandise value for the current quarter. Its shares jumped 8.6%. Lyft's quarterly revenue miss took its stock down 2.3%, even as the ride-hailing firm gave an upbeat gross bookings forecast for the September quarter. Sign in to access your portfolio
