At odds over water cuts, Colorado River states still seek consensus as deadline nears
The seven states are effectively under a deadline to reach a deal by summer or face whatever water-use restrictions the federal government or courts may impose after the existing shortage guidelines expire next year. Meantime, a slow start to winter precipitation has dialed up the stakes, possibly leading to painful new cuts by the end of next year.
The Upper Colorado River Commission, representing Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming, met virtually on Tuesday and heard projections from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation suggesting that current trends indicate the natural flow into Lake Powell this year will be about 71% of the 30-year average, accounting for near-normal snowpack atop soils that were parched heading into winter. It's not a great outlook for a reservoir that's currently 35% full and that holds the key to providing water to the Lower Basin.
'It looks like hydrology is calling us to action,' Colorado's river commissioner, Becky Mitchell, told colleagues.
While the Lower Basin states of Arizona, California and Nevada have conceded they will have to cut back when water levels dip too low in the river's largest reservoirs at Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the upstream states have argued that they already suffer outsize losses in dry years because they have no such massive storage pools.
A dispute over whether the Upper Basin should join the Lower Basin in taking additional cuts in the driest years led to an impasse at the annual winter meeting of river water users. The Rocky Mountain states use less water and argue that they have little more to give up.
Divisions on the river: Colorado River states fear a long legal battle as talks falter over shortage rules
The rift flows out of a math problem that a previous generation of negotiators set up in 1922. The Colorado River Compact and a suite of subsequent deals tied to it envisioned a river spilling 16 million acre-feet of water in a typical year. The Lower Basin, below Lake Powell, would get 7.5 million acre-feet, and so would the Upper Basin, with some left over for Mexico. But the river today, after decades of drought and warming, sometimes provides only about 12 million acre-feet.
Over the years, the Lower Basin maxed out its allowable use, while the slower-developing Upper Basin lagged, developing just over 5 million acre-feet in the best of years. Now the Lower Basin must cut back to keep water flowing our of the reservoirs, and the Upper Basin has little ability to develop without shorting the Lower Basin.
An acre-foot is roughly 326,000 gallons, or enough to support about three southwestern households for a year. Most of the river, though, supports agriculture.
Upper Colorado River Commission Executive Director Chuck Cullom on Tuesday spelled out the typical shortage that water users in the mountain states face. The Upper Basin states have developed capacity to use 5.2 million acre-feet in good years, but in practice fall short on average by at least 1.2 million acre-feet because of localized dry weather. So while the Lower Basin uses its 7.5 million, the Upper Basin uses about 4 million. Mitchell noted that the Upper Basin's shortages are not compensated, as some of the Lower Basin's have been — a water officials simply comes around to close a headgate and drain a canal.
Wyoming's top negotiator, State Engineer Brandon Gebhart, said ranchers in his state can't feed their cattle when that happens and must sell off herds that might have taken years to build.
'These existing and very real impacts must be adequately recognized and considered in our discussions,' Gebhart said.
Sharing resources: As the Colorado River is stretched thin by drought, can the 100-year-old rules that divide it still work?
The counterargument from Arizona and its neighbors in the Southwest has been that they can't realistically take all of the possible cuts — up to 4 million acre-feet in the worst years — out of existing uses without deep economic pain.
Arizona Water Resources Director Tom Buschatze was not available for comment on Tuesday, but at the December meeting of water users he noted that his state already has reduced its 2.8 million acre-foot share of the river to 1.9 million over the last decade. Heaping all of the future cuts onto the Lower Basin could actually zero out a major water supplier to Phoenix and Tucson, the Central Arizona Project, he told The Arizona Republic.
California continues to seek a seven-state consensus, its Colorado River commissioner, JB Hamby, said in an email. But, as he has before, he said that 'involves all users, states, basins, and both countries further reducing use to manage what the river now provides.'
In putting forward several alternatives for future shortage guidelines, the Biden administration had envisioned putting most of the burden of new cuts on the Lower Basin, except for up to 200,000 acre-feet of voluntary conservation during wet years in the Rockies.
'We are working to reach a consensus during this (Trump) administration,' Hamby said.
Without offering specifics, Colorado's Mitchell closed the Upper Basin meeting on a conciliatory note, saying that everyone will have to give something to reach consensus and avoid the uncertainty that would arise from a lawsuit.
"Cuts are probable," she said. "We need to do that for certainty, and everyone needs to do that."
Brandon Loomis covers environmental and climate issues for The Arizona Republic and azcentral.com. Reach him at brandon.loomis@arizonarepublic.com.
Environmental coverage on azcentral.com and in The Arizona Republic is supported by a grant from the Nina Mason Pulliam Charitable Trust.
Sign up for AZ Climate, our weekly environment newsletter, and follow The Republic environmental reporting team at environment.azcentral.com and @azcenvironment on Facebook and Instagram.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: As drought continues, the stakes for a Colorado River deal rise.
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