Black History Month: WHIO celebrates all who have pushed our nation forward
Every February, Black History Month gives us the opportunity to learn about the rich and, oftentimes, forgotten pieces of American history.
Black Americans helped build this country physically, culturally, diplomatically, and philosophically. They have endured America's worst, yet thrived under some of the harshest conditions to create an ancestral past that is just as rich and awe-inspiring as the history of America itself.
News Center 7 wants to recognize the Black people and organizations that have contributed to progressing our nation.
August 1927 - September 2003
First of few Black athletes to cross segregationist barriers in international tennis.
Became the first African-American to win a Grand Slam title.
Finished her career with 11 Grand Slam wins.
Named Associated Press's 'Female Athlete of the Year' twice for winning both Wimbledon and U.S. Nationals two years in a row.
Inducted to the International Tennis Hall of Fame and the International Women's Sports Hall of Fame.
First Black woman to appear on the covers of Sports Illustrated and Time.
Operated a national mobile tennis program that brought tennis equipment to underprivileged areas in major urban cities.
April 1889 - May 1979
Fought for the economic betterment of African-Americans.
Organized and led the Brotherhood of Sleeping Car Porters, the first successful Black-led labor union.
Assisted President Franklin D. Roosevelt with Executive Order 8802 that banned racial and ethnic discrimination in the defense industry.
Assisted President Harry S. Truman with the Civil Rights Act and Executive Orders 9980 and 9981 that banned racial segregation in the armed forces and discrimination of protected peoples during any federal hiring process.
March 1912 - August 1987
Organized the Southern Christian Leadership Conference to bolster Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.'s influential strength.
Taught King about nonviolent protests.
Organized the March on Washington Movement, a movement to pressure the U.S. government to provide fair working opportunities and desegregate the armed forces during World War II.
Organized Freedom Rides where black and white activists would ride interstate buses into segregated states to challenge the continued segregation of public buses even after the Supreme Court deemed such laws unconstitutional.
Advocated for gay rights and marriage equality.
December 1903 - December 1986
Worked with civil rights figures Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., W. E. B. Du Bois, and Thurgood Marshall.
Fought for civil rights in the Southern Christian Leadership Conference, however left for Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee (SNCC) after facing sexism and male-centric membership values.
Considered the 'Godmother of SNCC.'
Drove a grassroots movement for radical democracy that advocated for continuing growth of equality and freedom with changing times.
August 1911 - May 1991
Considered 'First Lady of the Black Press.'
Interviewed notable historical figures such as Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., President John F. Kennedy, President Dwight D. Eisenhower, and Nelson Mandela.
Used journalism to advocate for civil rights by asking hard questions. For example, she asked Eisenhower when he planned to ban segregation in interstate travel. His refusal to support special interests brought civil rights talks back to national debates.
Became the first Black female commentator on a major network when CBS hired her.
White House Correspondents' Association introduced the Dunnigan-Payne Lifetime Achievement Award in honor of her memory.
Circa 1797 - November 1883
Born into slavery, but escaped with her daughter to freedom.
Delivered the speech, 'Ain't I a Woman?' in support of women's and civil rights. During the speech, she recalled her time as a slave, the strength and appetite she had comparable to any man.
Attempted to secure land grants from the federal government for former slaves.
Recruited Black troops for the Union Army in their fight for freedom.
October 1956 - Present
First Black woman to travel into space as a mission specialist aboard the space shuttle, Endeavour.
Worked as a Peace Corps doctor in Liberia and Sierra Leone.
Founded a non-profit educational organization with a DARPA and NASA grant to increase private-sector investment into space-travel technology.
Advocated for women of color in STEM careers.
November 1921 - January 2003
Mother of Emmett Till, the boy who was wrongfully accused of whistling at a white woman and subsequently lynched.
Left her son's casket open during the funeral for news outlets to photograph his disfigurement and distribute across the country. 'Let the people see what they did to my boy,' Mamie said.
Shared her story about Emmett's death and murder trial under the recommendation of NAACP.
Established her son's legacy and invigorated the Civil Rights Movement.
May 1939 - December 1988
First Black network news anchor.
Co-founded the National Association of Black Journalists. The organization was founded to combat 'unconscious racism' by empowering Black journalists to take on media opportunities, illuminate Black people as capable professionals, and show the Black struggle. 'I cannot call myself an honest man or a black achiever if I take the big money and keep my mouth shut,' Robinson once said.
March 1915 - October 1973
Considered the 'Godmother of Rock-and-Roll.'
Influenced Rock-and-Roll artists Johnny Cash, Chuck Berry, and Elvis Presley.
Created gospel-pop genre with integration of gospel music and big band production.
Entered National Recording Registry of the U.S. Library of Congress for cultural and aesthetic significance.
Recorded what was considered the first Rock-and-Roll song.
Inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.
July 1936 - November 1970
Considered the 'Godfather of Free Jazz.'
Influenced the techniques used in avant-garde jazz.
Released some of the best selling albums in the free jazz genre.
Critics argued free jazz was an extension of Black consciousness given the political landscape in the 1960s.
November 1922 - September 1965
First Black woman to be nominated for an Academy Award for Best Actress.
Shaped the image of African-Americans in American films.
Worked with NAACP and National Urban League for racial equality after facing racism in the industry.
August 1935 - February 2019
First Black manager in Major League Baseball (MLB) history. He became the Cleveland Indians' player-manager, managing teammates while playing in games.
First player to be named Most Valuable Player (MVP) by the National League and the American League.
Elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility.
March 1877 - July 1963
Invented the smoke hood, notably used in 1916 Waterworks Tunnel Disaster to save trapped rescuers. The invention allowed rescuers to enter areas with toxic air quality and was the precursor to the gas mask.
Invented chemical hair straightening solution.
Co-founded Cleveland Association of Colored Men, serving as its treasurer to donate to historically Black colleges and universities.
Built a country club open to African-Americans when most did not accept Blacks at the time.
Ran for city council to address the needs of African-Americans.
October 1849 - August 1891
Wrote The History of the Negro Race in America 1619–1880, often considered the first in-depth history book of African-Americans. The book strived for historical accuracy over Black apologetics. For this, historians commonly reference this book.
Wrote other history books about African-Americans in the armed forces.
Elected official for the Ohio House of Representatives.
September 1913 - March 1980
Won four gold medals in the 1936 Olympic Games, two years after Adolf Hitler took office with an Aryan supremacy campaign.
Set three world records for the 220-yard dash, the 220-yard low hurdles, and the running broad jump at the 1935 Big Ten track meet in Ann Arbor, Michigan, in about 45 minutes.
United States Track and Field created the Jesse Owens Award, which honors the year's highest performing track and field athlete.
December 1882 - January 1971
Founded the Working Girls Association, which offered shelter, education, and additional assistance for single Black women who migrated north for work. The organization was later renamed Phillis Wheatley Association of Cleveland in honor of the first African-American with a published poetry book.
Established the Phillis Wheatley Foundation scholarship fund that helped finance women's higher education.
Founded the Women's Civil Rights League of Cleveland that fought for equitable rights.
Awarded NAACP's Hunter the Spingarn Medal for outstanding achievement.
December 1829 - November 1897
First known African-American to apply to an American law school.
First Black man to become a lawyer.
First African-American to be elected to public office.
First African-American to be elected to Congress from Virginia.
Worked to abolish slavery and promote racial equality.
Founded Ohio Anti-Slavery Society.
Served as founding dean for Howard University's law school, the first black law school in the country.
February 1931 - August 2019
Wrote about Black culture and their struggle in critically and commercially acclaimed novels.
Won the Nobel Prize in Literature for Song of Solomon, the third Black person to win the category, and first and only Black woman in history.
Won the Pulitzer Prize for Beloved.
Honored with the Presidential Medal of Freedom.
December 1903 - July 1994
Contributed to Defense Advisory Committee on Women in the Armed Forces.
Served on the executive council for the American Society of African Culture.
An alternate delegate to the United Nations General Assembly.
Awarded Merit Award of the National Association of Negro Musicians for being the first African-American to play lead role in Gian-Carlo Menotti's opera, The Medium.
Inducted into Ohio Women's Hall of Fame.
Among Dayton's earliest Black residents.
Served as an abolitionist conductor in the Underground Railroad.
Organized the First Wesleyan Methodist Church as part of the United Daughters of Zion, a group of five women
March 1864 - January 1922
Born into slavery.
First Black U.S. national park superintendent.
First Black man to achieve the rank of colonel in the U.S. army.
First Black military attaché.
Became the highest ranking black officer in the regular army.
Third Black graduate of United States Military Academy at West Point.
Posthumously promoted to brigadier general for all he achieved despite barriers from racism.
Referred to as the 'Mother of Dayton's Black Churches.'
Gave refuge, clothing, and food to fugitive slaves as part of the Underground Railroad route.
Became Dayton's first school for Black children.
September 1952 - January 2021
First Black woman elected to the Dayton City Comission.
Redeveloped Dayton's historic urban neighborhoods.
Led Wright-Dunbar, a historical neighborhood dedicated to the Wright Brothers' bicycle shop and birthplace of Paul Laurence Dunbar.
December 1873 - December 1955
Worked in Dayton Woman Suffrage Association (DWSA). Her leadership led to Black women working the suffrage booth, giving speeches, and organizing community gatherings.
Became first Black Red Cross nurse in Dayton after organizing a Black chapter of American Red Cross following World War I.
Served in Holloway Colored Orphans' Home.
Elected as officer of the Colored Citizens Protective League.
1903 - 1999
First Black realtor in Ohio and second in the country.
Established Unity Bank, a Black mortgage company.
Arrested for protesting the Rike-Kumler Department Store to hire Black workers.
Leila Francis Community Service Award is named in her honor.
Served as the only Black teacher in the public school system after schools integrated. She became the only teacher to train young black women during this time.
Co-founded and served as treasurer for Dayton branch of NAACP.
Co-founded Women's Christian Association, which became YWCA.
Taught acclaimed poet Paul Laurence Dunbar.
Louise Troy PreK-6 School named in her honor.
June 1872 - February 1906
Born to two former Kentucky slaves.
Published his first poem at age 16 in a Dayton newspaper.
First Black poet to earn national attention and distinction after leading editor of Harper's Weekly praised his work.
Crossed the color line by writing about white characters and their societies.
April 1919 - August 1996
First Black judge of Dayton and second Black judge in the state.
First Black to hold statewide executive position when he took on the role of superintendent of budget.
First Black candidate for statewide election when he ran for congressman-at-large.
First Black assistant prosecuting attorney in Ohio.
Successfully tried the first school desegregation case in the country at Hillsboro, Ohio.
First YWCA to open a branch for Black women and girls.
Empowered Black women to hold authority positions at all levels of the organization.
President of the Omega Community Development Center, a nonprofit organization that focuses on family, youth, and economic development.
Involved in the Hope Center, focusing on supporting children's and families' growth.
'You have to aspire to do more or to do better,' Ward said. 'You have to really have a determination to not forget where you came from and to remember that your experiences are important for a reason. You had this experience for a reason. And so, use it to the best of your ability to help someone else.'
Born in Columbus, Ohio.
Moved to Dayton to pursue ministry.
First African-American hired by Riverside Police Department and earned 'Officer of the Year' award for saving two people from a burning car.
First African-American to earn the rank of sergeant.
Two-time published author.
Serves as the executive president of Leadership at Its Best, a company that helps pre-college students learn life skills.
'You see me as one person, but I am actually a mosaic of different men. You know all of the men that I have watched succeed on television: Martin Luther King, Jr., President Barack Obama, and all of them. I like to think of them as being a little part of who I am today because without them showing us the way, you could go any direction,' White said.
Graduated with a bachelor's in criminology from Capital University, then studied conflict analysis and engagement from Antioch University.
Survived leukemia.
Doctor of naturopathic medicine working to find the cause of hair loss.
Inspired to become a doctor after mother called about her daughters losing hair at eight years old.
'One of my favorite quotes is be who you wish to see in the community,' Gullette said. 'I think that if we all take on that call to be who we wish to see in the community, our community will change. We'll see a change economically. We'll see a change in relationships and just the whole core of our community will take a shift by doing that.'
Graduated from Patterson High School and studied cosmetology, then trichology at Southern California University.
Founded Glover Youth Program to mentor teen foster kids that experienced juvenile court.
Supported breast cancer survivors through a fitness and wellness camp, Football 101: For Women and Girls.
Earned national recognition for tackling poverty through the Miami Valley Community Action Partnership's Getting Ahead Program.
'It feels good to know that some of my contributions whether personal or professional has been recognized and acknowledged,' Glover said. 'We don't do it for the recognition, but it's always a good feeling when your peers acknowledge you.'
Born and raised in Dayton.
Graduated from Jefferson Township High School as class president, and voted 'Most Athletic.'
Played for Pittsburg Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals, and Detroit Lions.
Launched informative videos called, 'Cyber Saturdays,' teaching people how to protect themselves online. Her videos helped many, including an older man who told her he appreciated her work.
'I want to help I want to make sure that people are safe,' Norwood said. 'It doesn't matter what you look like on the outside. It doesn't matter what your gender, or your race, or your ethnicity is. You can do amazing things because you're already created to be amazing.'
Discovered her love for computers at Jefferson Township High School.
Studied computer science at University of Dayton, received master's from Boston University, and enrolled in a professional development class.
Assistant principal at Meadowdale Career Technology Center.
Recognized at Top 10 African-American Luncheon, an event that honors Black men who made a mark on their community.
'We do the work that we do because it's what we enjoy and love doing. It's not about us. It's about others and being selfless,' Davis said. 'I'm going to always show love and respect for those that have done it whether it's those that we read about in our history books. Or, it's those that have worked alongside me, those who I look at as mentors, those who I grew up and watched.'
Earned his associate degree at Grand Rapids Community College, bachelor's at Capital University, and master's in Educational Leadership at Wright State University.
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Washington Post
16 minutes ago
- Washington Post
How a Democrat turned independent could shake up a key governor's race
Good morning, Early Birds. Congrats to the formidable Coco Gauff — and to Spike Lee, who somehow attends every sporting event. Send tips to earlytips@ Thanks for waking up with us. In today's edition … The Detroit mayor looks to go statewide … A ski manufacturer jumps into a run for Congress … Trump's price promises take center stage in a new digital ad campaign … but first … President Donald Trump bypassed California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) this weekend by ordering the deployment of 2,000 California National Guard troops to quell protests against immigration raids in the Los Angeles area. The move was swiftly condemned by political leaders in the state and across the country and is the latest sign of how Trump plans to push the envelope on nearly every power afforded to the presidency. Justin Jouvenal and Alex Horton reported that Trump 'invoked a section of the Armed Forces Act that allows the president to bypass a governor's authority over the National Guard and call those troops into federal service when he considers it necessary to repel an invasion or suppress a rebellion.' Newsom 'formally requested' that the Trump administration return the troops to the governor's command Sunday, labeling its moves 'the acts of a dictator, not a President.' Newsom also said he would file a lawsuit Monday against the Trump administration over the deployment, which he called 'immoral' and 'unconstitutional.' This will probably be the story of the week, with Trump's use of this power increasing the likelihood that he does it again in other cities and jurisdictions. 'We're going to have troops everywhere,' Trump said Sunday when asked about sending soldiers to California. Pressed on 'what's the bar for sending in the Marines,' Trump said, 'The bar is what I think it is.' Michigan's gubernatorial election next year was always going to be one of the most closely watched contests in the nation. And that was before the popular mayor of Detroit, a former Democrat, launched an independent bid. 'I think about the 2016 convention and the whole thing was Love Trumps Hate. And you look at what the Democratic Party has become, it has become a party of intolerance,' said Mike Duggan, the Detroit mayor who left his party late last year to announce a third-party bid. 'If you don't agree with the exact doctrine, you know, you are vilified, you are left out. And I think it has just been turning off more and more Americans, more and more Democrats.' Duggan added that Republicans 'of course have a lot of anger,' too. So it 'felt like a time in this country where people might want a different choice.' Duggan, who was first elected in 2013, has long been seen as a likely candidate for governor. But with a crowded Democratic primary — including Jocelyn Benson, Michigan's secretary of state, and Garlin Gilchrist, the state's lieutenant governor — Duggan opted for a third path, leading Democrats to accuse him of political expediency. (U.S. Rep. John James and Michigan Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt are the leading Republicans in the contest.) No matter his reasons, Duggan could be a threat to shake up the race. 'Right now,' Duggan told us, 'my goal is 20 percent from the Democratic side, 20 percent from the Republican side, and win with 40 percent of the vote.' Duggan's mayoral tenure has been defined by a rebirth of Detroit, with a focus on bringing in new jobs, greening the economy and reversing a decades-long population trend. He told us he 'would have been supportive' of Trump's tariff plan 'if it were done right' by targeting manufacturing jobs that fled to Mexico and China, but that the 'Canada tariffs made no sense.' 'Trump has zeroed in on an issue that needs to be addressed,' he said, but the president went too far in his plan. Duggan was a vocal surrogate for the Joe Biden and Kamala Harris presidential campaigns in 2024, regularly touting the Democratic duo for bringing 'Detroit's recovery back 10 years ahead of time' and even posting weeks before he left the party that 'KAMALA HARRIS is the LEADER we need to build on the progress we've made!' Duggan says he thought at the time that Harris was a 'better choice' and that he still believes it. But he now says he campaigned for her while harboring serious doubts about her and the state of his former party. Democrats are taking note of his campaign. Last month, the Democratic Governors Association timed the release of a digital ad accusing Duggan of corruption to the mayor's keynote speech at the Mackinac Policy Conference. The ad centers on a story from the Detroit News tying the mayor with 'events that outed a confidential FBI informant.' The attack raised eyebrows in Michigan, signaling that his former party is at least mildly concerned about what he could mean to the contest. Duggan hit back at the conference, calling his former party 'predictable.' 'Mike Duggan is already cracking under pressure and lashing out on the campaign trail,' said Sam Newton, a spokesperson for the DGA. 'The DGA beat attention-grabbing third-party candidates in Kansas in 2018 and Oregon in 2022 — and we're confident that we'll do it again in Michigan this cycle.' A spokesperson for the Republican Governors Association declined to comment on Duggan's campaign. Duggan told us he 'couldn't stop laughing' when he first saw the ad. 'It does seem kind of early,' he said. 'They only know one play. This is like the old Michigan football teams that ran the ball up the middle all the time. They only know one thing.' Polls show the mayor pulling support from Democrats and Republicans, something Duggan and his team regularly bring up. It's early, however, and not only has neither party selected a nominee, but the tens of millions of dollars that will be spent on this race have yet to harden voters' partisan preferences. Duggan has a tall hill to climb, both because he is, in his own words, basically unknown by people outside the Detroit metropolitan area and because history does not favor independent candidates for governor. The last time an independent won a governor's mansion was over a decade ago — Bill Walker, a Republican turned independent, won in Alaska in 2014 — and while there are high-profile examples of success, like independent Jesse Ventura in 1998, there are plenty of failures. In 2022, for example, independent Betsy Johnson garnered considerable attention as a possible spoiler for the Democratic candidate in Oregon, typically considered to be a safe blue state. Johnson wound up winning only 8.6 percent of the vote, not enough to stop Democrat Tina Kotek from defeating her Republican opponent by about 3.5 percentage points. 'Voting for an independent hasn't been people's experience, but I am finding … the idea is appealing to people,' Duggan said. He noted that when he declared for mayor ahead of the 2013 campaign, people counted him out before they got to know him because Detroit hadn't had a White mayor since the early 1970s. 'I can feel the same thing happening here. People are now really starting to understand.' Hi, it's Jacob Bogage from the economic policy desk diving into a key question surrounding Trump and Republicans' massive tax and immigration bill. Will this bill really reduce the national deficit? That's been Republican leaders' talking point the past week: There are two issues at play here. The first is Vought and Johnson's claims about spending cuts. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act cuts $1.3 trillion in spending over 10 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office — there's additional savings if you count new revenue, too. Johnson and Vought are asserting that by enacting those budget cuts, Republicans will 'bend the curve' on the national debt, or get the trend line on the debt (it's basically a vertical line now) to flatten out. But spending cuts in and of themselves are not deficit reducers when they are paired with new spending. The bill increases spending by hundreds of billions of dollars and cuts taxes by $2.4 trillion (plus another $500 billion, if you factor in interest costs), according to the Congressional Budget Office. That's more than enough to wipe out the projected savings and add significantly to the deficit. The other issue is Thune's claim about projected growth. That is based on the Laffer curve, a popular conservative economic theory that posits there's a Goldilocks zone for tax rates that maximizes government revenue and private-sector growth. Beyond that zone, high tax rates crowd out growth, according to the theory, and actually diminish government revenue because of smaller economic output. Like every economic theory, there's some truth and some problems with the Laffer curve. The bigger issue is how it's applied to this bill. The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was loaded with more growth incentives than the current bill, and it still came up short on paying for itself by stimulating economic activity. Help me cover the tax fight, the IRS, DOGE and more. Follow me on Bluesky: @ And send news tips securely on Signal: jacobbogage.87. Can we make a deal? Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet with representatives from the Chinese government today to discuss a possible trade deal between the two superpowers. While the Trump administration promised in April to strike 90 trade deals in 90 days — a goal it is dramatically behind on — no deal would be more significant than one with China. Somos Votantes, an organization focused on civic and voter engagement within Latino communities, tells us it is kicking off a six-figure bilingual digital ad today focused on Trump's failure to live up to his promise of lowering prices. 'Donald Trump promised to lower prices on day one — groceries, health-care costs — but what has he actually delivered?' a narrator asks in the ads titled 'Promised'/'Prometió' that will run on YouTube and digital streaming services in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin. 'Ridiculous trade wars with allies like Mexico, Canada and now the world, making prices go up for everyone.' The ad also hits Trump for 'letting Elon Musk slash good jobs and destroy cost-saving programs. … This is not what he promised.' 'This isn't about partisanship,' said Melissa Morales, founder and president of Somos Votantes. 'It's about promises that were made and broken.' Many of you are open to voting for candidates outside the traditional two-party system. 'We should all be voting 'Independent,'' said Terri McKenney, a Realtor in Gilbert, Arizona. 'The current two-party system is like a ballgame where the players are only interested in winning. Neither team particularly cares about the fans and their fate. Courtney Marsh, a reader in Springfield, Virginia, remembered studying former independent governor Jesse Ventura when she was in high school in Minneapolis. 'We studied the election in school, and I remember collectively my class was stunned by the results but intrigued by what would happen next,' she wrote. 'It has since made me at least take a deeper look at independent candidates, especially for state-level offices.' And Kristen Smith contributed the viewpoint of the two main parties: 'In a two-party nation like the USA, Independent voters are wasting their votes.' West Central Tribune (Willmar, Minnesota): When the Trump administration put out a list of immigration sanctuary jurisdictions, officials in Stearns County, Minnesota, were surprised to be on it. Las Vegas Review Journal: Nevada's legislative session did not end well, highlighting the partisan divisions in a state that will be home to a competitive gubernatorial contest next year. Ventura County Star (Camarillo, California): The feud between Donald Trump and Elon Musk — in addition to playing out like a juicy political drama — could have a dramatic impact on California and the state's electric vehicle market. We plan to write about how cuts to Medicaid could have a dramatic impact on rural hospitals later this week. Do you rely on a rural hospital to get care? Do you worry about the solvency of that hospital? Do you use Medicaid to get care from that hospital? Let us know at earlytips@ Thanks for reading. You can follow Dan and Matthew on X: @merica and @matthewichoi.

16 minutes ago
NATO chief Rutte calls for 400% increase in the alliance's air and missile defense
LONDON -- LONDON (AP) — NATO members need to increase their air and missile defenses by 400% to counter the threat from Russia, the head of the military alliance plans to say on Monday. Secretary-General Mark Rutte will say during a visit to London that NATO must take a 'quantum leap in our collective defense' to face growing instability and threats, according to extracts released by NATO before Rutte's speech. Rutte is due to meet U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer at 10 Downing St. ahead of a NATO summit in the Netherlands where the 32-nation alliance is likely to commit to a big hike in military spending. Like other NATO members, the U.K. has been reassessing its defense spending since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Starmer has pledged to increase British defense spending to 2.5% of gross domestic product by 2027 and to 3% by 2034. Rutte has proposed a target of 3.5% of economic output on military spending and another 1.5% on 'defense-related expenditure' such as roads, bridges, airfields and sea ports. He said last week he is confident the alliance will agree to the target at its summit in The Hague on June 24-25. At the moment, 22 of the 32 member countries meet or exceed NATO's current 2% target. The new target would meet a demand by President Donald Trump that member states spend 5% of gross domestic product on defense. Trump has long questioned the value of NATO and complained that the U.S. provides security to European countries that don't contribute enough. Rutte plans to say in a speech at the Chatham House think tank in London that NATO needs thousands more armored vehicles and millions more artillery shells, as well as a 400% increase in air and missile defense. 'We see in Ukraine how Russia delivers terror from above, so we will strengthen the shield that protects our skies,' he plans to say. 'Wishful thinking will not keep us safe. We cannot dream away the danger. Hope is not a strategy. So NATO has to become a stronger, fairer and more lethal alliance.' European NATO members, led by the U.K. and France, have scrambled to coordinate their defense posture as Trump transforms American foreign policy, seemingly sidelining Europe as he looks to end the war in Ukraine. Last week the U.K. government said it would build new nuclear-powered attack submarines, prepare its army to fight a war in Europe and become 'a battle-ready, armor-clad nation.' The plans represent the most sweeping changes to British defenses since the collapse of the Soviet Union more than three decades ago.


Atlantic
21 minutes ago
- Atlantic
The Real Problem With the Democrats' Ground Game
They called it the 'Big Send.' Democrats gathered in living rooms, libraries, and coffee shops across the country to write letters to millions of potential voters in swing states and competitive congressional districts, urging them to vote in November. During the 2020 pandemic election, the novel but decidedly 20th-century tactic had cut through the glut of digital messages that inundated Americans' cellphones and inboxes, and organizers hoped it would similarly boost turnout for Democrats in 2024. It did not. In a study set to be released later today, the group behind the letter-writing effort, the nonpartisan Vote Forward, found that personal messages sent to more than 5 million occasional voters deemed at risk of staying home last fall had no effect on turnout. (The group's campaign produced a modest increase in turnout among a second, slightly smaller set of low-propensity voters, but it still fell short of previous Vote Forward programs.) What's unusual is not Vote Forward's lackluster findings, but that the group is ready to tell the world about them. Every election, a constellation of progressive organizations sells donors and volunteers on the promise that their data-driven turnout programs will deliver victory at the polls. These mobilization efforts have taken on ever-greater importance in an era of tight elections, where the presidency and majorities in Congress can hinge on just a few thousand votes. Progressive groups are only too happy to brag about their wins; they're much less likely to divulge details about their campaigns that flopped. Driving this reticence is a fear that donations will dry up—or go to other organizations in a highly competitive campaign industry—if funders find out their money made little difference on the ground. In several instances, researchers told me, Democratic firms have either pushed them to suppress the results of studies that didn't produce desired findings or cherry-picked data to make the numbers look better. 'We have a people-pleasing problem in our party,' Max Wood, a progressive data scientist, told me. Yasmin Radjy, the executive director of Vote Forward and its progressive campaign arm, Swing Left, is trying to change that culture. Just as Democrats are now debating, sometimes fiercely, why their party's message failed last year, Radjy believes that to emerge from 'the political wilderness,' they need to have candid conversations about their organizing and turnout efforts. Radjy has been frustrated by what she describes as Democrats' lack of introspection and transparency. For months, she's been asking party organizers and consultants what they learned in 2024, and what they're going to do differently going forward. 'We've got to actually be honest about both what works and what doesn't work,' she told me. In the next election, 'if we are serving volunteers, donors, and voters reheated leftovers from 2024, we are doing it wrong.' The risks of a bad field operation are greater than people might think. The goal of any persuasion or get-out-the-vote program is to boost support for your party's candidate. Many make only a small difference in turnout, or none at all—especially in presidential elections, for which most people already know plenty about the candidates. The worst of these efforts, however, can backfire entirely. In 2008, then-candidate Barack Obama built the largest field operation in history, relying on both data-driven targeting and community-organizing tactics in a way that revolutionized presidential campaigning. But a study involving more than 56,000 targeted voters in Wisconsin found that a visit from a volunteer supporting Obama appears to have turned some potential voters away from Obama's candidacy—in a state the Democrat won handily that year. The researchers suggested that people who rarely engaged in elections found the visits bothersome. During the Obama era, Democrats relied on support from infrequent voters to capture the presidency, although they struggled in low-turnout, off-year elections. They poured millions of dollars into research and organizing programs to identify and mobilize those voters. But since then, the parties' bases have shifted, and many of these hard-to-reach voters became Donald Trump supporters—especially working-class white voters and, in 2024, a large number of young and nonwhite people. Some Democrats worry that their party's vaunted turnout operation has, in recent years, produced a significant number of votes for Trump, reducing, if not negating, the benefits for their own candidates. Early last year, a top progressive data scientist warned donors in a memo that if Democratic mobilization groups 'were to blindly register nonvoters,' they could be 'distinctly aiding Trump's quest for a personal dictatorship,' The Washington Post reported. Radjy acknowledged that had been a concern, but she said Vote Forward's postelection study found no evidence that its letter-writing campaign helped Trump or Republicans. 'If we found that, it would hurt, but we would also share it transparently,' she told me. It's not clear that everyone else would. The biggest spenders in Democratic politics frequently test their turnout operations, in many cases through randomized controlled trials in which one group of people receives a particular form of engagement—a door knock, phone call, or text message, for example—while another gets nothing. (This is what Vote Forward did to test its letter-writing success.) After the election, organizers can check to see which group voted at a higher rate. These findings have shown that in presidential-election years, traditional canvassing methods have become less effective as voters get bombarded with campaign ads and reminders to vote. 'In a saturated environment, it's getting harder and harder for individual pieces of campaign communication to break through,' David Broockman, a political scientist at UC Berkeley who studies voting behavior, told me. 'I expect the effects of everything are just going to keep on going down.' Occasionally, the studies that groups conduct are widely shared, but some political organizations suffer from a phenomenon known as the 'file-drawer problem': 'A lot of bad results never see the light of day,' Joshua Kalla, a political scientist at Yale University who studies voter persuasion, told me. Wood, the data scientist, learned that firsthand. He told me he's worked with Democrats who have urged him not to publish studies with unfavorable findings: 'Basically the attitude is, There's a lot of hype and a lot of willingness to fund this work. And if you put this out, all the funders are going to clam up and point to this as a reason not to do it.' In other cases, he said, clients have misused data to make tactics seem more effective than they really are. Another researcher, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid alienating allies in the party, told me about working on a study that found a campaign tactic had produced no boost in turnout. When the researcher later saw a published version of the report with their name attached, however, the findings made it seem as if the experiment had been successful. 'The big problem,' the researcher told me, is that in addition to using research to improve campaigning, Democratic groups 'also use it as effective marketing or to try to get clients. People's incentives are misaligned.' Democrats have become much more sophisticated over the past decade in understanding how to assess the effectiveness of campaigns, said Yoni Landau, the CEO of Movement Labs, an anti-Trump operation that ran dozens of large-scale experiments last year. 'The challenge now is about political will,' he told me, 'whether the people making the decisions—the funders and the organization leaders—want to know whether it worked.' To incentivize rigorous studies, which can help address the file-drawer problem, Landau said Movement Labs is launching a program it's calling the Prove It Prize, which will encourage groups to test campaign tactics by offering money for experiments that produce positive results. For now, he said, many of the largest investments aren't tested, and the reluctance to share poor results remains 'very prevalent.' When I called around to some of the largest progressive campaign organizations, most of them told me they had done extensive studies on their field programs in 2024, or were in the process of conducting them. Hardly any would share details of what they learned. Jenny Lawson, the executive director of Planned Parenthood Votes, told me the group would not risk sharing 'trade secrets with political entities that exist to end Planned Parenthood.' An official with another major group plainly acknowledged, on the condition of anonymity, that it feared a loss of donations and was unlikely to publish a study showing poor results. A spokesperson for the Democratic National Committee told me it is conducting its own extensive postelection audit, incorporating 'insights from inside the DNC and from external partners in the ecosystem' that the committee will make public in the coming months. Many progressive groups, including Planned Parenthood, do submit their findings to the Analyst Institute, an organization founded in 2007 that both runs and collects experiments on voter-contact programs. The institute serves as a database for Democratic-aligned groups to share research on campaign tactics—successes as well as failures. But some people told me the party's file-drawer problem extended there too. Christina Coloroso, the Analyst Institute's executive director, told me its officials coach Democratic organizations to not expect huge positive results in presidential-campaign years. She acknowledged that groups can be reluctant to share data even within the Democratic community 'when the results don't look great,' but she said the institute allows its members to submit research anonymously to allay fears. 'It's true that we may not see every single test that exists across the ecosystem, but all the work that we do is to try to get to a critical mass of studies,' Coloroso said. The search for the decisive edge in political campaigns has always been a hunt for novelty. Any new tactic that works doesn't work that well for long. Everybody starts doing it. Voters get tired of—and sometimes quite annoyed at—the calls, the texts, the emails. 'The first time that people got direct mail, it was like printing money,' recalled Michael Podhorzer, a former political director of the AFL-CIO who has been working on campaigns since the 1970s. 'Oh my God. I just got this letter from George McGovern or from Ronald Reagan. I'm going to read it, and I'm going to send a check here.' A generation ago, helped pioneer the use of email to raise money and drive engagement, Podhorzer said. 'Then it's quickly like, Who opens an email?' More recently, the new thing was text messages, which took off in 2020, when Democrats in particular relied more on digital communications—and old-fashioned letter writing. 'You just keep finding some way that people aren't expecting to hear about politics, and so they are actually open to it and listen to you. But then it gets completely swamped,' Podhorzer said. Conventional turnout methods—door knocking and phone calls, for example—can still have a big impact in low-turnout races, such as primaries, special elections, and campaigns for local office. But with the parties now spending more than $1 billion on the presidential campaign every four years, they've seen diminishing returns on each individual mobilization tactic. Vote Forward emerged out of a letter-writing experiment conducted during the 2017 special Senate election in Alabama, a deep-red state where the Democrat Doug Jones narrowly defeated Roy Moore, a former judge who had been accused of sexual assault or misconduct by several women. The turnout rate for people who received handwritten messages was three points higher than for those who did not. 'That was the holy cow,' Radjy said. 'This is a tactic that can really, really move the needle.' The impact of the group's letter-writing program has decreased over time, Radjy told me. Vote Forward found that its letters had no effect on the initial group of 'surge voters,' people who had participated in at least one major election since 2016. But the organization was able to expand its program to additional groups, mainly newly registered voters. Among these groups, the campaign boosted turnout by 0.16 percentage points, enough for Radjy to consider that part of the effort a success, because it was similar to the average effect for all previous measured presidential-election turnout programs. Vote Forward estimates that it drove an additional 9,000 voters to the polls nationwide. As paltry as that number might seem, it's larger than the total margin of victory in the battle for control of the House during each of the past two elections. The letter-writing program is also relatively inexpensive, costing about $175,000. The group has concluded that although it will still use the tactic in small campaigns, it likely will not do so in the same way in 2028. Democrats can take some solace in the fact that the nation's rightward shift last year was much smaller in the states where they campaigned most aggressively. That suggests that the hundreds of millions of dollars they poured into advertising and voter-turnout efforts did make a difference. And even the best ground game cannot overcome a flawed candidate or message. But the party's defeat is accelerating a broader questioning of its organizing and ability to connect with the millions of voters who are up for grabs in presidential-election years. 'Democrats have much bigger problems on their hands than what they're doing on the doors at the end of the election,' said Billy Wimsatt, the founder of the progressive Movement Voter Project, a clearinghouse for donors to Democratic groups. He said the party needs to learn from the success of the well-funded MAGA movement, which he calls a 'vertically integrated meta church' that, 'feels like one big purpose-driven team,' even with all its faults. 'Their billionaires are savvier than our billionaires,' Wimsatt told me, 'and they're more interested in winning.' Wimsatt is one of many Democrats who believe that the party needs to invest in much deeper engagement with voters—outreach that must start long before an election. So does Radjy: 'We need to be talking to people earlier,' she said. 'We need to be talking to people in a more curious and reciprocal way.' But first comes honesty about what went wrong in 2024. Democrats will appreciate it. They might even demand it. 'Even candor that is not rosy,' Radjy told me, 'is more appealing than rosy bullshit.'