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Clarence Valley residents seek ban as critical minerals search in catchment ramps up

Clarence Valley residents seek ban as critical minerals search in catchment ramps up

The sandy banks of the creek at Rebecca Lucock's northern New South Wales property sparkle with elements that are increasingly sought-after by critical minerals prospectors.
The Lucock family bought 188 hectares of land at Cangai, north-west of Grafton, in 2022 with big plans to take advantage of pre-existing approvals for an eco-tourism operation.
But an increase in exploration activity on the John Bull Gold Project to their south, and another four exploration licences within line-of-sight to their south, north and east has led them to rethink their plans.
The John Bull project is one of 44 approved exploration licences in the Clarence catchment with prospectors seeking minerals including gold, copper, antimony and cobalt.
"It's overwhelming; it does make you feel a little trapped," Ms Lucock said.
The increase in interest in mining opportunities in the region has landholders across the Clarence River catchment concerned.
Hundreds gathered recently at a series of forums in Grafton and the small towns of Drake, Dorrigo and Copmanhurst organised by community group Clarence Catchment Alliance.
Members of the group visited the NSW parliament in August to argue its case for the entire catchment to be excluded from the NSW Critical Minerals and High-Tech Metals Strategy.
Alliance founder Shae Fleming said mining posed an unacceptable risk to the region.
"We do feel that looking at some of the legislation and other policies … that lists us as a major flood zone, we just think it's obvious that mining in drinking water catchments and flood zones is a no-go," she said.
In 2001, small amounts of cyanide entered the catchment from retention ponds left behind by the defunct Timbarra gold mining project.
Traces of the rare metal antimony were found in the catchment's main drinking water dam in March, prompting the Clarence Valley Council to seek a briefing from the Environment Protection Authority.
"Whatever happens upriver ends up downstream," Ms Fleming said.
"We can survive floods, but floods contaminated with heavy metals and cyanide — I don't think there's any coming back from that."
The push for a ban on exploration and mining in the catchment is supported by seven councils in the north of the state and by Clarence MP Richie Williamson, who has facilitated the delegation.
"I think it is of concern to the wider community that exploration is going on in environmentally sensitive areas," Mr Williamson said.
Mining company Novo Resources, which has an option to acquire a majority interest in the John Bull tenement, has declined to provide a comment to the ABC.
But exploration companies with leases in the catchment say the odds are stacked against them.
An annual survey released last week by the Fraser Institute found Australia had dropped out of the top 10 regions for mining investment attractiveness.
Corazon Minerals is the majority owner of an exploration licence at Mount Gilmore, north-west of Grafton, with an eye on extracting copper and cobalt.
Non-executive CEO Kristie Young said the company spent around $200,000 drilling two holes 12 months ago, but she was unsure whether this would lead to a mine opening.
"When you are evaluating a project, you look at all the different elements — where is it located, what are the government regulations, what is it like environmentally, community. That's all extremely important," she said.
Legacy Minerals recently took over an exploration licence near Drake that several previous operators were unable to commercialise.
The lease requires a review of environmental factors to be submitted, but a more detailed Environmental Impact Statement is not required until the mining stage.
Managing director Chris Byrne said his company hoped new mining techniques and a willingness to liaise with the local community and traditional owners for social licence would help get the project to mining stage.
'The probability of any exploration project making it to mineral extraction can be as low as one in 300 projects," he said.
NSW Minerals Council chief executive Stephen Galilee said the environmental impact of any potential mine would be assessed through the planning process.
"It's a very rigorous, extensive, independent process that assesses the risks," Mr Galilee said.
Meanwhile, NSW Premier Chris Minns said he was confident his government was striking the right balance between the need for critical minerals and environmental protection.
"We want to make sure we have export-led industries in critical minerals, which by the way are crucial in terms of the renewable energy revolution," he said.
"We've got to get the balance right, and an exploration licence does not mean that a mine is about to open up."
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The ASX's best undeveloped mines, according to Argonaut
The ASX's best undeveloped mines, according to Argonaut

The Australian

timea day ago

  • The Australian

The ASX's best undeveloped mines, according to Argonaut

Argonaut's latest Best Undeveloped Projects list was launched this month Companies listed in the guide have historically done well, with cumulative gains for key picks of 212% over more than a decade Gold, uranium, copper and critical minerals deposits all among the 25-strong list of key picks and special mentions In a world of AI, quants and passive investing, there are smoke signals to be found that active management and stock picking still matters when it comes to choosing outperformers. Look no further than the Best Undeveloped Projects list out of Perth brokers Argonaut, the tome from the Wild West that puts guard rails around which future mines have the best prospects for success. This year's list is now out, presenting 25 projects yet to enter construction that have the potential to become significant mining operations. Of those, 18 make the main list with another seven in the special mentions category. It's impossible to predict the future with perfect accuracy, but recent history suggests the list can be a good guide for value creation. Argonaut has drawn up the list each year since 2014. In that time there have been four down years and seven up years for its key picks, with average growth of 14%. A cumulative investment would have netted 212% for key picks and 94% for special mentions over that period, against just 61% of the ASX 200 and 123% for the small resources index. Last year was a strong one for Argonaut's key picks, notching their third best performance in the past decade with average share prices 38% higher. Special mentions underperformed small resources (10% vs 12%), though that came off a massive 58% run in 2023. The standout performer in 2024's list was New World Resources (ASX:NWC), up 235% after a bidding war resulted in its $243 million cash takeover by Kinterra Capital – the prize its high-grade Antler copper project in Arizona. It would be hard to repeat a success like that, with De Grey Mining also a major mover after its scrip takeover by Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) to end the speculation over who would eventually get to develop the 11.2Moz Hemi gold project. With that in mind, we felt it was worth a squiz at this year's book to see which projects Argonaut thinks are the real deal this year. The list Before we go onto the list itself, it's worth noting what criteria Argonaut's stock pickers use to determine their top selections, giving a sense of what professional analysts look for when they talk about a standout asset. Geared towards low cost, high margin opportunities, the projects assessed by Argonaut must be development stage, somewhere between a scoping study and pre-commercial production, have an internal rate of return upwards of 25% (large miners typically will develop anything above 15% depending on mine life), profitable through all market conditions and commodity price cycles and highly likely to achieve a project valuation north of $100m within 24 months. To make the list the project owner must also have a valuation of less than $5bn – no boring, index tracking mega caps here. This year's book is a long one. So we'll roll up the key picks here: Argonaut's key picks for best undeveloped projects. Pic: Argonaut Running through the 18 key picks, and you'll be surprised to see gold doesn't totally dominate the ledger – these projects are supposed to work in all commodity cycles after all. Copper gets two nods, courtesy of AIC Mines' (ASX:A1M) Jericho and FireFly Metals' (ASX:FFM) Green Bay. Unloved nickel and resurgent platinum group metals get some love in Centaurus Metals' (ASX:CTM) Jaguar project in Brazil and Chalice Mining's (ASX:CHN) Gonneville in WA. Zinc, rare earths, niobium and rutile all get one mention, with lithium and uranium bagging two a piece. It's not everything, but in a sign of the times, gold assets still make up the largest single portion of the list, with six of the 18 names aiming to develop gold assets. Those include large producers Greatland Resources (ASX:GGP), Perseus Mining (ASX:PRU) and Capricorn Metals (ASX:CMM), who are all looking to build new mines in the coming years at Havieron, near Greatland's Telfer mine, Nyanzaga in Tanzania and Mt Gibson in WA, respectively. But there are small caps on the card also: Magnetic Resources' (ASX:MAU) Lady Julie deposit in WA's Laverton gold district, Predictive Discovery's (ASX:PDI) Bankan in Guinea and WIA Gold's (ASX:WIA) Kokoseb in Cote d'Ivoire are all included, with each shaping as potential M&A targets. "An improved gold market has fuelled increased exploration across the space, resulting in the emergence of new greenfield and near-mine discoveries," Argonaut said. "We include nine gold projects, with five located in Western Australia and the remainder across the Africa region. "We remain firmly committed to our belief that decarbonisation will play an increasingly important role in the global economy. Future facing metals such as lithium, rare earth elements, copper, niobium and uranium are all represented in our project selections." Special mentions include projects that could progress to Argonaut's main list. Pic: Argonaut Three gold stocks feature on the special mentions, including Brightstar Resources (ASX:BTR) and its soon to be wholly consolidated Sandstone project, where the acquisition of neighbour Aurumin (ASX:AUN) would pump up its inventory from 1.5Moz to 2.4Moz gold. Tim Goyder's Minerals 260 (ASX:MI6) and its ripe to be mined Bullabulling mine near Coolgardie also makes the grade along with Diggers and Dealers best emerging company award winner Turaco Gold (ASX:TCG) and its Afema deposit in Cote d'Ivoire. Rare earths and niobium plays Northern Minerals (ASX:NTU) and Encounter Resources (ASX:ENR) are on the bill, with African uranium opportunities Aura Energy (ASX:AEE) and Bannerman Energy (ASX:BMN) cracking a mention. Projects to watch There's a lot to pore over, but we've decided to take a look through some of the key picks and special mentions for a few that piqued our interest. Aura Energy - Tiris Aura Energy's Tiris is among the most advanced uranium assets on the ASX, with first production expected in 2027. The project lies in the West African country of Mauritania, an off the radar locale for ASX investors which nonetheless is home to major mining operations, especially in gold and iron ore. Tiris would be its first uranium mine, with Argonaut's John Scholtz suggesting its 162Mt at 215ppm resource (76.6Mlb) could underpin production of 1.7Mlbpa at all in sustaining costs of US$37.07/lb. "A DFS on the project was completed in 2021 and has subsequently been updated in 2023 and had a FEED study in 2024 highlighting robust economics. AEE is now focused on funding and is expected to do an FID in the near-term. The project is fully licensed," Scholtz said. "Due to current market conditions delaying an FID, AEE's current target for delivering production is early CY27 rather than their initial estimates in the FEED. Using a 50/50 blend of spot prices and Argonaut forecasts the NPV of Tiris is A$585m." That compares very favourably to Aura's current market cap of $138m. Magnetic Resources - Lady Julie Magnetic's Lady Julie North 4 discovery has grown from 200,000oz to 1.94Moz in just two years, with Argonaut's Patrick Streater predicting another update could take the resource there to 2.25Moz. That would add further value to an asset where a feasibility study in July outlined a nine-year mine life producing 114,000ozpa, including 140,000ozpa between years three to eight. Argonaut has modelled a 10.5 year mine life at 110,000ozpa, with pre-production capex of $375m including working capital, with an initial open pit to be supplemented by an underground from the third year of ops. "MAU presents both as an attractive standalone development project, whilst also being a compelling M&A target for existing producers in the region looking for a large high-grade ore feed," Streater said. The attraction for nearby majors is its locale. Magnetic sits within 15km of both Genesis Minerals' (ASX:GMD) Mt Morgans mill and Gold Fields' Granny Smith, both of which have long been regarded as underfed. When deposits outside Lady Julie are included, the broader Laverton project's resource runs up to 2.32Moz, making it one of the largest undeveloped gold bases in the hot WA Goldfields region. "MAU continues to progress the Lady Julie project down a standalone development route with a sufficient mining inventory now built to cover pre-production capital costs," Streater said. "However, the existing processing infrastructure in the region across various producers makes MAU a compelling M&A target, which could instead be acquired as a bolt-on project for a nearby producer. The LJN4 open pit includes a large high-grade ore reserve of 14.3Mt at 1.6g/t for 726koz, which would be an attractive high-grade feed with scale to supplement existing mill ore feeds or displace lower-grade material." Patriot Battery Metals - Shaakichiuwaanaan Is lithium still sufficiently exciting at spodumene prices of under US$1000/t to warrant best project inclusion? Argonaut still sees Ken Brinsden's Patriot as "globally significant" as the largest hard rock lithium deposit in North America, running at 141Mt at 1.39% Li2O. It bolstered the investment case last month by reporting the world's largest pollucite hosted caesium deposit also existed on the site, including a high-grade component of 163,000t at 10.25% Cs2O with lithium and tantalum credits. An exploration target of 146-231Mt at 1-1.5% Li2O means converting drill metres to resources could put the project in league with Pilbara Minerals' Pilgangoora, MinRes and Albemarle's Wodgina and the Greenbushes JV in WA for scale. A feasibility study is due at the end of September. Predictive Discovery - Bankan A DFS recently outlined a 12-year operation producing 250,000ozpa at an all in sustaining cost of just US$1057/oz. Hosting a 2.95Moz reserve, Bankan is one of the largest discoveries made in West Africa in recent years, with the grant of an exploration permit viewed by Argonaut's Patrick Streater as a key catalyst for the project, expected to cost US$463m to bring into production by 2028. While wrangling from Guinea's Government over licences at other projects is potentially throwing some storm clouds over the junta-run jurisdiction, the award of the exploration permit could be a trigger for M&A. That seems the logical outcome for PDI, which has Perseus, Lundin and Zijin all on its register as significant shareholders. "We expect the Lundin Group/Zijin to be the most likely owners. Under PDI's current development timeline, assuming PDI brings Bankan into production, the first gold is targeted for early CY28," Streater said. Brightstar Resources - Sandstone Brightstar is already a small scale gold producer, using toll treatment to deliver between 35-40,000ozpa from a string of gold mines across the Menzies and Laverton gold districts. An expansion there, using its own plant infrastructure, could enhance that to 70,000ozpa later this decade. But Alex Rovira's firm's big opportunity to grow into a 200,000ozpa miner lies in the forgotten Sandstone gold field. Over the past two years, the firm has delivered on a plan to consolidate the district – the fourth pillar of the Murchison province alongside the Ramelius Resources dominated Mt Magnet and Westgold controlled Cue and Meekatharra – via aggressive M&A. The latest gambit is its agreed merger with Aurumin, which will take the total inventory to 2.4Moz. FID is due in 2027 with production to start late in 2028 on present ambitions. 100,000m of drilling is planned this financial year. Argonaut's Hayden Bairstow has a spec buy rating and $1.60 valuation on 40c BTR. The broker's 3Mtpa production scenario for Sandstone carries a $200m capex estimate, with average gold production of 105,000ozpa with costs of $3000/oz for the first five years. A PFS and ore reserve are due in 2026. Sovereign Metals - Kasiya Kasiya hosts the world's largest natural rutile resource of 1.8Bt at 1%, with 1.4% natural graphite a co-product kicker. Natural rutile is the world's cleanest and most desirable source of titanium dioxide feedstock, with supplies expecting to head into decline over the course of this decade. Rio Tinto has already read the tea leaves, picking up a 19.9% equity stake in the company, which is expected to deliver a DFS on the Malawi-based project in Q4 2025. "Rio Tinto (Not Covered/No Rating) holds a 19.9% equity stake in SVM and we anticipate they will ultimately pay a market premium to takeover SVM. The DFS expected in 4QFY25 remains as a key catalyst," Argonaut's George Ross said. Argonaut has a $1.691bn NPV attached to the project, slightly below Sovereign's optimised PFS estimate. The number is pre-tax, with the application of a 15% Malawian resource rent tax still uncertain. The project has already attracted the interest of international offtakers, Ross noted. "The project will produce two critical mineral co-products, rutile and graphite, at a low carbon cost. Kasiya's rutile concentrate is considered a premium product with good particle size and low deleterious elements," he said. "Because of its quality, Kasiya's rutile is suitable for use as both a titania feedstock and in the high value welding sector. SVM has entered into non-binding MOUs with three major rutile market participants: Mitsui, Chemours and Hascor." At Stockhead, we tell it like it is. While Sovereign Metals, Brightstar Resources, Aura Energy and Magnetic Resources are Stockhead advertisers, they did not sponsor this article. The broker's opinions are not those of Stockhead.

Revealed: Sydney's most overvalued and undervalued suburbs
Revealed: Sydney's most overvalued and undervalued suburbs

News.com.au

time2 days ago

  • News.com.au

Revealed: Sydney's most overvalued and undervalued suburbs

Explosive property market inflation has created pockets of Sydney where house prices have become 'overvalued' and at risk of soon falling as buyers seek out cheaper, comparable homes elsewhere. This has coincided with the emergence of contrasting city areas where the opposite conditions have emerged: prices are undervalued relative to neighbours, demand is picking up and 'catch up growth' is imminent, new data shows. The SuburbData analysis exposed varying levels of suburb price imbalances when comparing neighbouring areas offering similar houses, amenities and infrastructure. Undervalued suburbs were deemed good areas to buy in because prices could soon grow, while overvalued areas posed risks for new buyers, who were in danger of overcapitalising on their purchases. The research showed prices in the most 'overvalued' suburbs were up to $250,000 higher than nearby, similar areas – often after years of rampant growth that outpaced the rest of the surrounding market. Such price gaps were unsustainable, according to the SuburbData research, with buyer demand now showing signs of dropping while the supply of available properties was rising. These factors pointed to a coming market adjustment that would result in prices stagnating for many years, or even falling, raising risks for new buyers, the study revealed. SuburbData analyst Jeremy Sheppard said a suburb being undervalued or overvalued was down to market cycle timing and the balance of supply and demand, among other things. 'Buyers are continually searching for value for money,' he said. 'One of the big mistakes people make is assuming growth will occur at a consistent rate over many years. 'It doesn't work like that. Real estate moves in cycles. Buyers spot an opportunity to get better value for money in an (undervalued) market and that drives a feeding frenzy. Prices then go up sharply. 'Rises will continue until buyers reach the stage where they no longer see value … It's at that peak when the market is generally overvalued.' Areas ranked among the 20 most overvalued Sydney markets were a mix of suburbs spread across the greater city area. They included developing suburbs around the coming Western Sydney airport, such as Rossmore and Bringelly, which have attracted ample speculative investment over recent years. Overvalued suburbs also included outer suburbs dominated by acreages and semirural properties, such as Mulgoa and Orchard Hills, south of Penrith and Ellis Lane, in the Camden area. Prices in these fringe areas were elevated during the pandemic due to increased buyer demand for spacey properties, but these areas have historically appealed to more niche buyers, with recent indicators of demand beginning to fall. There were also parts of the Pittwater region in Sydney's upper northern beaches deemed overvalued, including Great Mackerel Beach, Whale Beach and Clareville. These too were hot markets during the pandemic and the years that followed, attracting a string of 'lifestyle' buyers wanting more space and quieter coastal settings – only demand has now dropped and property supply is rising, suggesting prices may have peaked. Undervalued suburbs, where growth has been stunted over a few years and conditions have since picked up, included a string of relatively affordable areas around Strathfield and Greater Parramatta. The suburbs were Homebush West, Dundas Valley, Wentworthville, Liberty Grove and Granville, among others. Parts of the south were also considered undervalued, such as Sutherland Shire suburb Jannali and, in the southern Canterbury-Bankstown area, Revesby and Revesby Heights. Buyer's agent Andrew Hancock of My Property Pro has sourced deals for numerous families wanting to purchase in these southern areas and said most were coming from more expensive regions like the inner west. 'There is a perception that there is better value on offer and these buyers often have higher paying jobs and bigger budgets and that's pushing up the prices,' he said. 'An area like Revesby has homes that are a lot cheaper than suburbs further to the south like Kirrawee, but they offer something a bit similar. It is undervalued and these types of areas do catch up.' Other undervalued suburbs were in the inner west, including Campsie, Newtown, Alexandria and Petersham. Adrian Tsavalas, the director of inner west agency Adrian William, said Newtown was particularly good value at the moment. 'It's always been a popular area and it has had various growth spikes in the past but when you compare it to other inner city suburbs like Glebe and Annandale, its excellent value,' he said. 'Units are a really good entry point into the area because they've remained really good value for the past five years.'

Barry FitzGerald: Prodigious gold region a yellow brick road for Arika
Barry FitzGerald: Prodigious gold region a yellow brick road for Arika

News.com.au

time2 days ago

  • News.com.au

Barry FitzGerald: Prodigious gold region a yellow brick road for Arika

'Garimpeiro' columnist Barry FitzGerald has covered the resources industry for 35 years. Now he's sharing the benefits of his experience with Stockhead readers. In a $5100/oz-plus Aussie gold market there is nothing quite like a big targeted exploration program in a prodigious gold region to get the interest up. And so it is with Arika Resources (ASX:ARI), which has been attracting followers of late on the strength of its 10,000m drilling program at two projects in the Leonora-Laverton district. It is funded for the hunt after a $5 million capital raise in May and at a share price of 3.9c for a market cap of $33.5 million, Arika has plenty of leverage to exploration success. Investors won't die wondering with this one, as there will be a steady flow of exploration results over the next 6-12 months. Both of the company's projects – Yundamindra and Kookynie – are surrounded by the region's big name producers like Genesis, Northern Star and Gold Fields, among others. As recent activity in the region has demonstrated, there are plenty of options around toll treatment/ore purchase/acquisitions should Arika work up a deposit that is measured in the hundreds of thousands of ounces rather than the millions of ounces category. Arika is after the big discovery for sure. It's just that in this gold price environment there is plenty of value to be had with smaller finds. Think of it as a potential value backstop while Arika continues the hunt for the game changing discovery. Where is the game changer? Both of Arika's projects are peppered with historic workings which are obvious drilling targets. But there are also a bunch of targets hidden from oldtimers by cover. Geophysics and geochemical work leading up to the drilling program has taken what could be called high-priority targets to more than 50. Arika reported first results from drilling at the F1 Fault at the Landed at Last prospect at Yundamindra on Monday. The best intercepts included 4m at 41.56g/t from 52m and 27m at 2.45g/t from 61m, and they've served to rev up interest in the stock. F1is one of several north-east trending structures which cross-cut Landed at Last's mineralisation towards the northern end of what Arika, without blushing, calls the Yellow Brick Road. It is a mineralised structural corridor than extends for more than 16km along the western flank of the Yundamindra syncline. A 10km section of the Yellow Brick Road is dotted with historical workings. Despite its location and history of gold mining, the Yundamindra area has only ever been lightly explored. What modern era drilling was conducted by previous owners was mostly shallow at less than 50m. Before the latest drilling Arika tested for depth extensions, with the deepest hole to date at the prospect returning a super encouraging 14.8m grading 3.1g/t from 87m. More where that came from Arika boss Justin Barton said on Monday that it was important to remember that F1 was just one of the many under-explored prospects along the Yellow Brick Road. Garimpeiro reckons Dorothy most likely agrees. The drill rig motored on from F1 to another highly ranked prospect called Bonaparte (assays pending) and is now testing the Banjo's Camp prospect. As indicated earlier, assay results from the drilling campaign will be rolled out on a regular basis. Over at Kookynie, Arika shares tenement boundaries with Genesis Minerals (ASX:GMD). An aeromagnetic survey has been completed at the Ithaca prospect, which sits immediately along strike from Genesis' Ulysses gold mine. Like the prospective areas at Yundamindra much of the prospective ground at Kookynie is on mining leases, which means if there is a near-term opportunity to monetise a smallish discovery while the search for the big one goes on, Arika will be able to act quickly.

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