Which women's March Madness teams have Cinderella potential?

New York Times

18-03-2025

March Madness is named so for a reason; pandemonium can break loose at any given moment. All it takes is a banked-in midrange, a turnover and a ball flying into the stands off a simple inbounds play to equally sow the seeds of hope and doubt.
Cinderella runs are what add that extra level of excitement to the NCAA Tournament. Watching a team go from a relative unknown to heroes on their campus after an upset is what it's all about.
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For the purpose of our exercise, let's consider a Cinderella pick a No. 9 seed or lower, as those seeds are typically first-round underdogs. Which teams should you keep track of and learn about before the games start?
The Jackrabbits were never in danger of losing the Summit auto bid, but they would've had a stellar case to make the field as an at-large. They defeated multiple tournament-bound teams: Creighton, Oregon and Ball State.
They also played competitively against Georgia Tech and nearly knocked off Duke at home. The Jackrabbits have won five NCAA Tournament games, most recently beating USC in the No. 8 versus No. 9 game in 2023 before a close loss to eventual Final Four-bound Virginia Tech in the second round.
TO THE DANCE 💃#GoJacks 🐰 pic.twitter.com/SWY2lrNW14
— Jackrabbit WBB (@GoJacksWBB) March 10, 2025
Boasting the nation's 10th-best offensive rating, per Basketball Reference, South Dakota State is lethal with a top-notch post player, Brooklyn Meyer. She excels as a scorer and facilitator on the block, and the team is creative in getting her touches.
Almost every player in the rotation can shoot the ball at a high level, with three players in the top five of minutes played shooting over 40 percent from deep during conference play. They move the ball, take care of it and don't often waste second-chance opportunities or extra possessions. They're not an easy out in March.
In nine seasons at the helm of his alma mater, Larry Vickers has built Norfolk State into a mid-major power and the best team in the MEAC. This marks the third straight NCAA Tournament appearance and the highest seeding they've received.
The Spartans tout the fifth-best defense, allowing just 80 points per possession per CBB Analytics. They finished first in the country in Hakeem percentage, which combines steal and block percentage, ending over a third (33.5 percent) of opponent possessions with a forced turnover.
Norfolk State finished with two SEC wins on the year, Missouri and Auburn, and nearly picked up a third in a tightly contested game with No. 5 seed Alabama.
Hearing our name called on Selection Sunday never gets old!#GoldStandard🔰 pic.twitter.com/unfXLU5gDA
— Norfolk State Women's Basketball (@NorfolkStateWBB) March 17, 2025
Diamond Johnson, the MEAC Player of the Year, is a pro-level talent at the point guard position, and her ability to create shots for herself and others has elevated the offense since transferring from NC State two seasons ago. She's remarkably shifty and dynamic off the dribble, capable of getting to the rim or touching the paint in an instant.
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Kierra Wheeler brings a frontcourt presence that works in tandem with Johnson in the post, in the pick-and-roll and in running the court in transition.
With a staunch defense and multiple players who can knock down open shots, the Spartans pose a threat in the first round and shouldn't be taken lightly.
Montana State returns to the NCAA Tournament, making its first appearance since 2022 in exhilarating fashion with a buzzer-beating Big Sky championship victory.
Something out of a movie 🎥#All4One | #GoCatsGo pic.twitter.com/MaiHICEWGt
— Montana State WBB (@MSUBobcatsWBB) March 13, 2025
Coach Tricia Binford has built Montana State into a consistent winning program, and her 20th season at the helm in Bozeman, Mont., could be the most special.
The Bobcats use a frenetic defense, stealing the ball more than any other team in the country, forcing a steal on 20.3 percent of opponent possessions, per CBB Analytics. They ranked 15th in press frequency, according to Synergy Sports, 32.6 percent of all defensive possessions involving a pressing defense.
Montana State isn't your typical mid-major. Only four players are listed shorter than 6 feet. Though the Bobcats' press is key, they're no slouch defending in the halfcourt either, using a lot of switching to contain the ball, which is not all that dissimilar from what you might see watching the WNBA.
Their best offense is typically spurred on by their great defense. If they can set the press, sit down in the gaps and play their way, every player is a threat to catch-and-shoot or drive. It'll be incredibly fun to watch two similar styles meet when Montana State meets Ohio State in the first round.
Harvard is back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2007, and its defensive growth helped get it here. The Crimson were solid last season, but their defense ranked in the bottom third of the country and held them back. This season, they finished with the 11th-best defense. Not a bad turnaround!
Simply HER.
Hear from Harmoni Turner following her historic performance.#GoCrimson x #BelieveIt pic.twitter.com/9Szylve92T
— Harvard Women's Basketball (@HarvardWBB) March 15, 2025
Central to Harvard's success is star guard Harmoni Turner. She's a nonstop player, constantly in the mix on either end of the ball and attacking the game. A member of the NCAA's 2,000-point-scorer club, Turner creates at all three levels. With a crafty handle and her unending energy, she's adept at attacking the lane and using dynamic angles to put the ball in the hoop. Outside the arc, her footwork is crisp and her pull-up jumper is immaculate, whether she's going sideways after a hesi or canning a stepback.
Give her too much defensive attention, and she'll pick you apart with her vision and find a cutting teammate. The Crimson play sharp, precise and efficient basketball, and Turner's brilliance is the cog in the machine that's propelled Harvard to its highest NCAA Tournament seeding.
(Photo of Carrie Moore: Erica Denhoff / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)