Putin's Gas Pipe Dream Quietly Fizzles Out

Miami Herald

a day ago

Russia's energy giant Gazprom has ended plans to develop a new hub in Turkey for its natural gas, it has been reported.
It deals another blow to the prospect of Russia regaining a foothold in the lucrative European market it lost access to following Vladimir Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Gazprom had been looking at Turkey as a way back into Europe for Russian natural gas with Nord Stream pipelines to Germany out of action, the 2024 expiration of a gas transit deal through Ukraine and a downturn caused by the war.
But Bloomberg reported that Gazprom had concluded such a plan was not viable. Newsweek has contacted Gazprom for comment.
Europe was once Gazprom's largest export market, worth around $8 billion a month in revenue. But hit by sanctions, reduced production and historic losses, Gazprom has paid a high price for Putin's attack on Ukraine, which prompted many European countries to seek other sources for their natural gas supplies.
Putin had touted Turkey as a way back into the lucrative market for Gazprom but the gas giant's decision to shelve such plans deals a blow to Russia's quest to sell its vital revenue generator.
Even before Putin launched his full-scale invasion in February 2022, Moscow had curbed Europe's access to Russian natural gas to make the continent more dependent on the fuel.
But faced with an increasingly unreliable trading partner, Europe found alternative long-term gas sources, such as Norway and imports of liquefied gas (LNG) from the United States.
In May, the European Union published a road map for further cutting its reliance on Russian fuels with a goal of completely ending its gas imports by 2027.
The Nord Stream pipelines between Russia and Germany were damaged by mysterious explosions in September 2022. The following month, Putin had floated the idea of Turkey being a gas distribution hub to make up the shortfall, teasing a plan for the NATO member to receive about 55 billion cubic meters (cbm) a year.
The idea did not come from Gazprom and have originated with figures close to Putin, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter, but the proposal had backing in Turkey which has the ambition of becoming a gas-trading hub.
Putin was talking about the project as recently as October 2024 but Gazprom steadily lost interest partly because of Ankara's wish to market the gas with the firm only acting as a supplier, according to Bloomberg, citing unnamed sources.
Yörük Işık, a geopolitical analyst based in Istanbul, where he runs the Bosphorus Observer consultancy, told Newsweek that the gas plan was a political project meant to attract Turkey's attention but never made economic sense.
He said the issue from day one was Turkey's insistence that it have the right to market the Russian gas, which was something Moscow never really wanted to accept, especially given the growing energy options that Ankara now has.
Thomas O'Donnell, a Berlin-based energy expert, told Newsweek Turkey is "more and more capable of resisting" Russian demands to have a say in what happened to the gas once it was sold.
In the long term, Russia would want to send gas to Turkey but any project for the fuel to be sent on into Europe would run into problems with sanctions from the EU and the U.S., he added.
Ankara is also gaining increasing strength in its energy relationship with Russia and so it's becoming more difficult for Putin to get the kind of deal Russia wanted, O'Donnell said.
For instance, contracts for the gas Russia supplies to Turkey through the Blue Stream and TurkStream natural gas pipelines come up for renewal at the end of 2025 and "Erdogan will play hardball."
Another obstacle to the project was that Turkey's pipeline capacity into EU-members Greece and Bulgaria was too limited to handle significant additional supplies, Bloomberg reported.
Russia hopes the proposed Power of Siberia 2 (PoS-2) gas pipeline to transport natural gas from the Yamal Peninsula to China will increase Beijing's purchases of Russian gas to offset the loss of European market share.
But despite the "no limits" partnership between the countries often touted by Putin, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is yet to give the project the green light.
Meanwhile, Moscow's wish to transport Russian gas via Kazakhstan as an alternative has also failed to gain traction in Beijing, with China's ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui saying in April that the proposal was "not possible."
Bloomberg reported that Gazprom "has quietly shelved plans to develop a new gas distribution hub in Turkey closing the door on a potential opportunity to regain a foothold in European markets lost since the invasion of Ukraine."
Energy expert Tom O'Donnell told Newsweek: "Turkey would want a really good deal and all the demands the Russians make, such as having a say over where their gas goes—the Turks are more and more capable of resisting."
He added: "Turkey is getting stronger in their energy relationship, so it's difficult for Putin to get the kind of deal that Russia wanted."
Turkey remains a large purchaser of Russian natural gas and Ankara's plans for the country to become a gas hub remain, as does its willingness to cooperate with Russia on a joint venture for the initiative, but the process has been delayed, Bloomberg reports.
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