Slugfest in the Middle East
Slugfest, yes; but of no ordinary consequences. It will take the world to keep it contained. Iran in the western construct is Middle East, not West Asia, and it is important to note. It comes under the geographical responsibility of US Central Command that oversees the Middle East. Israel too is a part as is Pakistan on its eastern most boundary.
Nothing moves in the US CENTCOM AOR without its consent or at least without its notice. To imagine anything else is naïve. That is why the CENTCOM was created with its forward Headquarters conveniently placed in Al Udeid in Doha, Qatar. General Kurilla, the CENTCOM Chief, knows it all.
Dial back a few weeks. President Trump wanted a 'deal' with Iran on the Nuclear Enrichment issue. Iran too wanted to settle now that a more aggressive administration was in power in Washington with its own peculiar worldview and willingness to support Israel to establish its dominance over the Middle East. For the more pliable wary of Israeli prowess there exist the Abraham Accords to help secure their future for Israel's acceptability only if Iran, the remaining stumbling block, could be subdued.
The Houthis in Yemen would then easily acquiesce too. Iran's aspiration to be a nuclear power was already established. Agreement with the P5+1 had laid limits on Iran's ambition (Iran is a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty). But then Trump chose to dump the Agreement in 2018, three years after the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) was first signed. It opened the space for Iran to pursue its nuclear enrichment programme at its own pace. The IAEA could visit to inspect if Iran was complying to the limits of enrichment levels and the stockpiled enriched uranium.
Iran though built in greater ambiguity. It is said that Iran moved significantly ahead of its below-5 per cent limit on enrichment under the Agreement and held a significantly higher value of stockpiled enriched uranium than stipulated. In 2023 it was reported that Iran had enriched up to and over 83 per cent level. It was barely short of the magical 90 per cent mark to turn into a weapon.
Trump in his second term, aware of the leeway the US exit had afforded Iran, sought an immediate renegotiation of the deal to rein Iran in. Implicitly he may have had in mind to reinforce his credentials of a deal and a peacemaker before the Alfred Nobel Committee. Israel did not seem to agree nor did some from within Trump's team.
Donald Trump's was the stated position. More likely it left space for its partner, Israel, to eliminate or at the least significantly degrade Iran's nuclear programme as a living and present danger to Israel's long-term health and security. Iran had/has two major nuclear enrichment facilities, one at Natanz, that Israel struck with some effect in the ongoing war with Iran, and at Fordow near Qom, which is far more sophisticated and secure where enrichment levels are suspected to have been breached.
When Iran was reluctant to enter negotiations, Trump declared a sixty-day window for Iran to agree to a deal proposed by the US, else the cost to Iran would be heavy and unbearable in military terms. Five rounds down and sixth on the anvil when it was more than likely that Iran was coming around to agree on most terms, Israel attacked Iran. It was the sixty-first day from the day Trump had announced the window of opportunity. Coincidence? Or a well deliberated execution? I don't think it needs much thought.
What has followed since June 13 has been a conflagration ready to envelop the whole region unless handled with care. Both sides rain missiles on each other and wreak untold pain and misery. Soon, civilian populations will be the victims to test and breach their threshold of tolerance and of the two societies and their political masters. In a slugfest, one who can absorb more is usually the one to prevail. Mohammad Ali, the late Boxing Champion, perfected this art and established a psychological edge over his opponent by inviting him to give him body blows.
The national character of Iran and its thousands of years of civilisational history and the size of its population hold it in better stead than Israel which is still young as a nation even if it boasts of a history of suffering over centuries. In the Iranian character, death is celebrated albeit with remorse; in the Israeli experience suffering and victimhood is emphasised to gain empathy. These two characteristics will hugely define the ultimate victor in the civilisational sense.
Either Iran will now run out of its missiles or Israel will breach its threshold of pain. Each may be the first sign for that side to find accommodation or exhaust itself to desperate resort. How might Iran's nuclear programmes be affected will depend on the damage the programme suffers, possibly delaying the timeline for weaponising its ability – an important Israel-US aim for this war.
Negotiations will surely follow when the war finally ends but how much Iran may give to the US will depend on how Iran has fared in the war in perceptions and in real terms. If Iran seems to have held her line resolutely the regime and the ongoing system in power will sustain and survive – it can surely outrun Israel in this madmen race. Or if the US offers it a chance for peace on terms that may save the regime and buy time and keep foundations of Iran's nuclear programme, Iran may take that route. It would be prudent in a long game. It will also save the region from chaos, uncertainty and falling dominoes which are sure to follow. Regime change, the deeper or implicit political objective, is a more complicated and extended effect of the war and where might it first happen, Iran or Israel, is moot.
What is of essence here is that Israel and its supporters are now loudly calling for the US to intervene on Israel's behalf; that Israel with its existing capacity cannot complete the mission of eliminating Iran's nuclear programme. Iran's resilience and unexpectedly ferocious response on an overly sensitive Israeli psyche to the losses amidst their population centers is the key to shout for the patron to come to the rescue. Israel stands exposed with its civilisational inadequacies. This is Iran's great achievement.
Similarly, were Trump to jump in and directly attack Iranian assets it shall not only be an act of desperation but will also puncture Trump's long held position of withdrawing from forever wars. Iraq is what he always refers to as an example. Iran will still survive despite Fordow but what carnage may ensue at the US installations in the Middle East will only expand, engorge and envelop all the Middle East which will be rendered chaotic, explosive and uncontrollable for years to come. Iraq, Libya and Syria stand as sorry examples of such ill-thought adventurism. More likely better sense will prevail despite Netanyahu's Israel.
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