Istanbul talks lay bare Kyiv-Moscow chasm

New Straits Times

18-05-2025

THE first high-level talks between Russia and Ukraine since the early months of Moscow's 2022 invasion showed they are far from agreement on steps needed for a ceasefire, even though they promised a major swap of prisoners of war.
A window for more diplomacy remains ajar, however, after the sworn enemies agreed in principle to hold further talks, the foreign minister of host country Turkiye said, a crucial point for United States President Donald Trump, who wants a rapid peace.
The negotiators' promises to release a thousand prisoners of war, to meet again for talks and to present their vision for a ceasefire were "substantial steps", said Peter Slezkine, a senior fellow and director of the Russia programme at Stimson Centre.
"I do think that they are a very hopeful sign, because the two sides coming into direct contact is an important development," he said.
Ukraine, the US and other Western countries have called for a 30-day ceasefire without preconditions to allow for peace talks.
Russia, which controls almost a fifth of Ukraine, has shown little appetite for concessions, repeating demands such as Ukraine withdrawing from and recognising Russian control over four Ukrainian regions that the Kremlin now claims as its own but does not fully control.
The measured tones of statements by both sides that followed the talks did little to paper over the chasm between them.
A Ukrainian diplomatic source told Reuters that Russia made demands at the talks that were "detached from reality and go far beyond anything that was previously discussed".
The Kremlin's chief negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, suggested after the negotiations that Russia could fight on for as long as it needed to achieve its aims.
Invoking tsarist military victories in a 21-year war against Sweden in the 18th century, he said Kyiv was merely deepening its own demise by resisting Russia's peace demands.
The closest things to a blueprint for a peace deal that have yet to emerge are proposals circulated by the US and counterproposals by Europe and Ukraine at talks last month, which Reuters has obtained.
On Saturday, a senior Ukrainian government source said Russia's latest demands in Istanbul included Kyiv renouncing its desire for reparations, international recognition of five parts of Ukraine as Russian and that Ukraine becomes a neutral state.
The demands went further than either the US or Ukrainian and European proposals.
One of the senior Ukrainian officials who took part in the abortive series of 2022 talks with Russia that failed to stop the war told Reuters that the engagement in Istanbul had panned out as expected.
"This is the beginning of the journey. Demands are always exaggerated at the start of any negotiations. That's classic," the source said.
The fragile outcome of the talks puts the ball once again in Trump's court. He abruptly changed tack on Thursday, a day before the negotiations, saying he needed to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin for there to be a breakthrough.
His remark put paid — for now — to Europe's hopes of pushing Washington to impose a fresh blast of sanctions on Russia.
If that happened, it would be a milestone moment in Trump's fledgling presidency, during which he has so far shown sympathies towards Russia and torn up the pro-Ukraine policies of his predecessor, Joe Biden.
Just last weekend, the leaders of four major European powers travelled to Kyiv, threatening Russia with more sanctions if it did not agree to a 30-day ceasefire from May 12, a position they said the US supported.
When Putin then suggested talks instead of a ceasefire, Trump told Zelenskyy in a social media post to immediately agree and made no mention of looming Russia sanctions, despite signalling for weeks that he is frustrated with what he has said could be foot-dragging by Putin.
Zelenskyy, anxious not to alienate Trump, proposed direct talks with Putin.
The Kremlin leader did not respond until the eleventh hour, when he named a delegation excluding not only himself but also any of his full-fledged ministers.
"You don't send undertakers to a wedding," Vladimir Pastukhov, a Russian political analyst, said of Medinsky's nomination as delegation head, alluding to his role on the Russian delegation in the failed 2022 talks.