Latest news with #StimsonCentre
South China Morning Post
05-07-2025
- Politics
- South China Morning Post
Think Trump ‘obliterated' Iran's nuclear programme? Don't be so sure
Two weeks after the United States launched air strikes on three of Iran's key nuclear sites, mounting evidence is puncturing President Donald Trump 's boasts that the facilities were ' obliterated '. Advertisement From the head of the United Nations' nuclear watchdog to leading American non-proliferation experts, scepticism is growing over Washington's assertions that the strikes set back Tehran's nuclear weapons ambitions 'by years'. Trump 'appears to have already lost interest', according to Barbara Slavin, a distinguished Middle East fellow at the Washington-based Stimson Centre think tank – apparently believing that a public declaration of victory renders negotiations with Iran unnecessary. But nuclear experts agree: no one outside Iran can say with any certainty what has become of the country's 900lb (409kg) stockpile of 60 per cent-enriched uranium. While this enrichment level falls one step short of weapons-grade, it is – by the UN's reckoning – enough to produce as many as nine nuclear warheads were Tehran to take that final leap. Instead of halting Iran's progress, the US and Israeli attacks have triggered a retaliatory ban on International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors, cutting off the UN Security Council's oversight of the country's nuclear sites and, crucially, its cache of highly enriched uranium (HEU). Advertisement Before the strikes, the IAEA had what it described as a 'comprehensive' picture of Iran's HEU reserves and the centrifuges spinning to enrich uranium. But now, as Director General Rafael Grossi told US news network CBS last Sunday, 'there is nothing'.
Time of India
26-06-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
Iran-Israel conflict: The Conflict that Just Doesn't End
Morning Brief Podcast | Iran-Israel conflict (ET Online) The Conflict that Just Doesn't End Anirban Chowdhury | 15:54 Min | June 26, 2025, 7:29 AM IST LISTEN 15:54 LISTENING... What happens when long-simmering tensions between two regional powers erupt into a flashpoint for global concern? In this episode of The Morning Brief, host Anirban Chowdhury is joined by Barbara Slavin, distinguished fellow at the Stimson Centre to unpack the fragile but ferocious dynamic between Iran and Israel. Framed by the October 7th Hamas attacks and the Gaza War, the conversation traces the deeper history of Iran's relationship with Israel and the rise of the so-called Axis of Resistance. From regime stability in Tehran to nuclear ambitions, Barbara offers insight into whether this conflict marks a shift in Iran's regional strategy or simply a episode also probes the role of the United States, questioning why it acts as a combatant rather than a mediator and whether its long-standing 'maximum deterrence' doctrine still holds water. Is there still hope for peace?
South China Morning Post
30-05-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
US visa crackdown echoes Trump's first term, while China's response marks shift in tone
Washington's visa crackdown on Chinese students with ties to the Communist Party closely mirrors restrictions imposed during US President Donald Trump's first administration, which at the time prompted Beijing to accuse the US of 'regime change'. However, this time, Beijing's response has been notably restrained, with China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Thursday denouncing the move as 'discriminatory' and lodging diplomatic protests. Despite Beijing's unease over discussions about party connections, observers suggested China's measured approach stemmed from its focus on crucial trade negotiations with the Trump administration, and a belief that such policies would ultimately backfire and harm the US. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced in a brief statement on Wednesday that the US would 'aggressively revoke' visas for Chinese students, specifically those with connections to the ruling party or studying in 'critical fields', while tightening scrutiny of visa applications from mainland China and Hong Kong. Foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning on Thursday called the move 'politically motivated and discriminatory', saying it had used ideology and national security as a pretext and would 'further damage' America's global image and reputation. Yun Sun, director of the China programme and co-director of the East Asia programme at the Stimson Centre in Washington, said much remained unclear about the latest plan, as specific criteria for visa revocation and its potential scope had yet to be disclosed.
Mint
21-05-2025
- Science
- Mint
What a giant stingray says about the Mekong
The Economist Published 21 May 2025, 03:49 PM IST It took a dozen men to load Boramy, a giant stingray, onto the scales. At just under 300kg, she is the biggest freshwater fish ever weighed. She was caught by a Cambodian fisherman on the Mekong, South-East Asia's longest river, on June 13th. She was the fourth giant stingray recorded in the area in the past few months. She swam away tagged. The discovery of such a large fish has cheered conservationists. The Mekong river, which starts in the Tibetan plateau and snakes through China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam, feeding some 66m people along the way, is home to more species of huge freshwater fish than any other in the world. But they are suffering. In the past 50 years the population of giant fish has dropped by 94%. Dams are part of the problem. Over 140 of them have been built on the Mekong and its tributaries to feed the region's growing demand for electricity. Dozens more are under construction. Dams alter the amount and quality of water and nutrients in the river. They also block fish from migrating. Changing weather patterns do not help. The wet season is shorter than it used to be and tends to start later, says Courtney Weatherby of the Stimson Centre, a think-tank. Between 2019 and 2021, the water level in the Mekong was the lowest since records began 60 years ago. Poor dam management, climate change and El Niño, a weather pattern that affects rainfall in the region, are all thought to contribute to the problem. That Boramy is both massive and alive shows that pockets of the river remain resilient and worth protecting. Her discovery also points to improving relations between fishermen and conservationists. Her captor could have sold her as food. Instead he called Wonders of the Mekong, a local conservation group, which paid him some $600 to keep Boramy alive so that she could be tagged and released. Villagers along the river are also paid modestly to maintain the acoustic receivers that pick up signals from the group's tags. Conservationists hope that by tracking Boramy, they will learn which parts of the river to protect, including breeding and birthing spots. But big fish may yet lose out to big hydropower. A new dam is being proposed just upstream of where Boramy was found.
NZ Herald
20-05-2025
- Business
- NZ Herald
China's J10-C jets in spotlight after Pakistan-India conflict
While China pours hundreds of billions of dollars into defence spending each year, it lags far behind the United States as an arms exporter. China's drones are used in counter-terrorism operations, and its weapons have been deployed by Saudi Arabia in Yemen and against rebel forces in African countries, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) senior researcher Siemon Wezeman told AFP. 'But this is the first time since the 1980s that a state has used large numbers of Chinese weapons of many types in action against another state,' said Wezeman, referencing the Iran-Iraq war when they were used on both sides. 'Primary option' Pakistan accounts for around 63% of China's arms exports, according to conflict and arms-research institute SIPRI. In the recent fighting, Pakistan used the J10-C Vigorous Dragon and JF-17 Thunder planes, armed with air-to-air missiles. It was the first time the J10-C has been used in active combat, said the Stimson Centre's Yun Sun. Islamabad's air defences also used Chinese kit – including the HQ-9P long-range surface-to-air missile system – and deployed Chinese radar as well as armed and reconnaissance drones. 'This was the first sustained fight where the bulk of Pakistan's forces used Chinese weapons and, basically, relied on them as their primary option,' said Bilal Khan, founder of the Toronto-based Quwa Defence News & Analysis Group. India has not officially confirmed any of its aircraft were lost, although a senior security source told AFP three jets had crashed on home soil, without giving the make or cause. Rafale maker Dassault has also not commented. The Rafale is considered one of Europe's most high-tech jets, while the J10-C 'is not even China's most advanced', said James Char from Singapore's Nanyang Technological University. But if Pakistan's claims are true, 'this should not be surprising... considering that the Rafale is a multi-role fighter, whereas the J-10C was built for aerial combat and is also equipped with a stronger radar,' Char said. The Chinese air defence systems, however, 'do not appear to have been as effective as the Pakistan Air Force would have hoped', said Quwa's Khan, after India said it had neutralised one near the eastern border city of Lahore. If true, said SIPRI's Wezeman, that 'would be a bigger success and more than balance the loss of some aircraft in the process'. 'Significant reorientation' In the days after the dogfight reports, J10-C maker Chengdu Aircraft Company's stock soared over 40%. 'We most likely will see more orders going to Chinese contractors,' said the Stimson Centre's Sun. However, 'it will take time and significant reorientation by Chinese arms manufacturers for the country to be a big arms exporter', said Jennifer Kavanagh from the US think tank Defence Priorities. She noted that China 'cannot mass-produce certain key inputs, including aircraft engines'. Wezeman said he thought the stock markets 'overreacted', as 'we still have to see how well all the weapons used worked and if it really means much'. Even if more data emerges, the conflict still does not reveal much about the Chinese military's own capabilities, the analysts said. China's own systems and weapons are much more advanced than what it exports. And while having high-tech hardware is important, 'much more important is how those weapons are used', said Kavanagh. Brian Hart of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies said he would caution against 'reading too much' into recent developments. 'I don't think you can make direct comparisons to how these Chinese-made systems would fare in different environments against more advanced adversaries like the United States,' he explained. 'Since the number of data points is small and since we don't know much about the proficiency and training of the personnel on either side, it is hard to draw definitive conclusions.'
