USC's path to the Final Four: Before a UConn rematch, Kansas State's 6-foot-6 center looms
If Watkins and the Trojans are to earn their first national championship since 1984, the path will have to go through the Huskies. For the second consecutive season, USC and UConn are the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the same region, setting up the two All-Americans for another Elite Eight showdown. And unlike last season, when the duo was an undercard to Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese on the other side of the country, this will be the main draw.
Don't pencil in either squad for the regional final just yet, however. Although the Trojans earned a No. 1 seed for the second straight year, the path is more challenging than it was in 2024, starting in the second round. Former Pac-12 foe California, which could bring a busload of fans to the Galen Center, potentially awaits in the second round. The eighth-seeded Golden Bears are 15th in the country in true shooting percentage, and USC had its fair share of difficulties against its four opponents who exceeded that mark: UConn, Notre Dame, Washington and UCLA.the moment the squad was announced 🙌 pic.twitter.com/xtFpZ79anM— USC Women's Basketball (@USCWBB) March 17, 2025
If the Trojans advance beyond the first weekend, a potential sleeping giant awaits in the Sweet 16. No. 5 Kansas State faltered at the end of the season with Ayoka Lee unavailable, but the 6-foot-6 center has been practicing with the Wildcats. Her ability to score and facilitate out of the post dramatically changes Kansas State's ceiling. While USC has experience facing a similar kind of player in Lauren Betts, that doesn't make the matchup any easier, especially since the Wildcats have three shooters who make at least 40 percent of their 3s surrounding Lee.
Beyond Kansas State, No. 4 Kentucky could give the Trojans a fight, and coach Kenny Brooks has likely been scouting Watkins for more than a year, since his Virginia Tech Hokies were the No. 4 seed in USC's 2024 region. If Kentucky advances to the Sweet 16, Clara Strack could be a problem as the SEC defensive player of the year and one of the best paint protectors in the country. Kentucky doesn't have the right personnel to defend Watkins (though, who does?), and it would scramble with a combination of Dazia Lawrence, Amelia Hassett and Teonni Key (who would also be tasked with defending Kiki Iriafen), while Kennedy Smith seems well-suited to guard Georgia Amoore at the point of attack.
The toughest potential Elite Eight opponent for USC is obviously UConn. However, one of the two teams to beat USC all season also lies on the other half of the draw: Iowa. The Hawkeyes have been shooting the leather off the ball (an effective field-goal percentage of 56.7 over the last five games), and they have a ton of experience in the NCAA Tournament, even if in secondary roles. And if No. 3 seed Oklahoma can get past Florida Gulf Coast, the Sooners could be dangerous with their pace and shooting ability. On top of this, No. 7 Oklahoma State has the nation's 18th-best NET rating and is arguably underseeded.
With all due respect to the remainder of the field, USC versus UConn is the matchup to circle, and for good reason. The teams have split their last two games, both of which came down to the final minutes. Each program has been a historical powerhouse, even if the Trojans' heyday resides in the distant past, and the star power of Watkins and Bueckers demands attention. The Huskies were the second-best shooting team during the regular season, while USC had the eighth-best shooting defense. The Trojans like to push the pace and attack the offensive glass, while UConn does neither. Either would be a heavy favorite to advance to the Final Four were it not locked in the same region against each other.
If USC is to break its near-four-decade Final Four drought, the Trojans will have earned it. There is no easy path in the Spokane 2 Region.
Download your printable bracket here.
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
USC Trojans, Women's College Basketball
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