Get excited about Iowa's CFP odds
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New York Times
37 minutes ago
- New York Times
How to make bold (and smart) College Football Playoff predictions using the preseason Top 25
The most important thing to keep in mind as you put together your personal College Football Playoff predictions is they are all but guaranteed to be wrong. So don't sweat it. Nobody saw Indiana and Arizona State (combined six wins in 2023) as even long shots to make the first 12-team CFP. But if you were following along with me last year, before I joined The Athletic, you might remember I tried to warn you that history strongly suggested there would be at least a couple of surprise teams. Advertisement Not only is picking a chalky bracket boring, it's just about as likely to be incorrect. Using AP Top 25 preseason polls from 2014 to 2023 and comparing them to final CFP rankings over the same period, I came up with a very unscientific 'formula' for predicting a playoff bracket. In Year 1 of the 12-team format, it turned out to be pretty accurate. The formula doesn't identify specific teams to select. It guides you to choose a specific number of teams from five tiers using the preseason AP poll. Your 12-team bracket should include: Last year, the bracket included four of the preseason top five (Oregon, Ohio State, Georgia, Texas; Alabama missed out), two from six to 10 (Penn State and Notre Dame) and two from 11 through 20 (Clemson and Tennessee). There were no CFP teams ranked 21 through 25 in the preseason and four CFP teams that started the season unranked (Boise State, Arizona State, Indiana and SMU). Boise State and SMU at least showed up in the 'Others Receiving Votes' section. The point of the exercise is not necessarily to pick the bracket correctly as much as it is to get you thinking beyond the top 15 or so teams in the country. It's highly unlikely a team that won only three games last year will make the CFP this season. Oklahoma State, anyone? But you might want to be open-minded about Houston (four wins), Auburn (five), Washington (six) or Georgia Tech (seven). So have fun with it. In fact, use the formula to come up with several different combinations. Even tweak the formula a bit if you want — as long as you're stretching your imagination at least a little. For my own 'official' picks, I just couldn't comfortably eliminate one of the AP's top five (Texas, Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson, Georgia). For this column, I'm sticking with the formula. Three unranked: Louisville, Nebraska, Tulane. And here's the bracket: Happy predicting! Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Play today's puzzle
USA Today
an hour ago
- USA Today
Former Iowa football OT, current Bucs star in elite company in NFL players poll
We're now in the top 30 in the newest NFL players ranking of the best in the game currently. This is where the list gets extremely hard to make, as there are so many fantastic players in the league, all deserving of respect. But this is why the players get paid the big bucks. Iowa fans most recently saw George Kittle come in at 31st on the ranking, but he wasn't the highest-ranked former Hawkeye on the list. Because that honor belongs to one of the offensive tackles in the entire game. A guy who can play both left and right tackle at an elite level. And a player who just became the highest-paid offensive lineman in the history of the NFL. Tristan Wirfs was named the 28th-best player in the entire league by his fellow players. Wirfs' place on this list is very fair, maybe even a little bit too low. He's a four-time Pro Bowler, two-time First-team All-Pro, and a Super Bowl champion. Oh, and he's only 26 years old. The sky is the limit for Wirfs in terms of what he can do the rest of his career. There's a very good chance he could go down as the best offensive lineman to ever play the game. It's high praise, but he's deserved it with what he's done in the league so far. There's also a good chance that Wirfs ends up being the highest-ranked former Hawk on this list, just beating out Kittle. The rest of the list is still being revealed gradually, so we'll have to wait and see if that's the case. Regardless, it's a great accomplishment for Wirfs and another ledger to add to his resume. It's great to see a former Hawkeye have this much success in the NFL, especially after a stellar career in Iowa City. And it'll be exciting to see what Wirfs can do in 2025. Contact/Follow us @HawkeyesWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Iowa news, notes and opinions. Follow Zach on X: @zach_hiney
New York Times
2 hours ago
- New York Times
2025 SEC football predictions: Will Texas rise to the top? Is Alabama ready to bounce back?
The entirety of college football outside of the SEC derived much joy last season from watching the SEC land only three College Football Playoff berths and none of its teams reach the national championship. This year, I predict, the SEC will come storming back. The league's offenses last year largely stank. No team averaged 30 points in conference games. Not coincidentally, many of the SEC's highest-profile QBs in 2024 — Georgia's Carson Beck, Alabama's Jalen Milroe, even Texas' Quinn Ewers — regressed from the year before. Advertisement This year's group should fare better. It's a strong cast, led by Texas' Arch Manning, South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers, LSU's Garrett Nussmeier, Florida's DJ Lagway and Oklahoma's John Mateer, all of whom rank in the top 10 of The Athletic's preseason QB Tiers. Oh, and Vanderbilt's Diego Pavia. But a couple of the prime contenders will need a new guy to deliver. I'm betting on Alabama's Ty Simpson. I'm selling Georgia's Gunner Stockton. SEC championship: Texas over Alabama Texas: Manning is going to be good. How good? We'll see. But the Longhorns, who won 13 games last season, should have a much more potent rushing attack with the tandem of Quintrevion Wisner and a healthy CJ Baxter. The front seven will be dominant. If Texas flops, it will be because a less-experienced offensive line took a significant step back. Alabama: Kalen DeBoer's 9-4 debut was a disaster, particularly on offense. But it's a big deal that he's reuniting with his former Washington offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb. Bama has a great receiving corps led by Ryan Williams, a huge offensive line and a defense teeming with vets like linebacker Deontae Lawson and defensive tackle Tim Keenan III. I'm all in on a Tide bounce-back. LSU: Brian Kelly has the pieces. Nussmeier threw for 4,052 yards last season, and he has targets galore in Aaron Anderson, Kentucky transfer Barion Brown and breakout tight end Trey'Dez Green. And the defense could be significantly better with all the transfer upgrades, to go with returning stud linebackers Whit Weeks and Harold Perkins. Texas A&M: This is my SEC sleeper team. The Aggies quietly fielded the league's top scoring offense in conference play (29.4), and dynamic QB Marcel Reed figures to be more advanced. The backfield is deep, led by Le'Veon Moss. Yes, the defense has questions. But I like the Aggies to go on the road in Week 3 and upset Notre Dame. Advertisement Georgia: Although it won the SEC last year, Georgia did not meet the standard of Kirby Smart's previous teams. The Dawgs should have a strong rushing attack with Nate Frazier and Josh McCray, but how will OC Mike Bobo best utilize Stockton? Even the defense has questions for once. I've got the Dawgs straddling the CFP bubble. Oklahoma: It's a make-or-break year for Brent Venables. With exciting ex-Washington State QB Mateer and his former OC, Ben Arbuckle, last year's miserable offense should be light-years better. But I still don't have full confidence in Venables, who has finished below .500 in two of his first three seasons. Would 8-4 be good enough to earn Year 5? Florida: Billy Napier earned a reprieve after November upsets of LSU and Ole Miss propelled the Gators to an 8-5 finish. Lagway is bursting with talent. But those now mentioning Florida as a CFP candidate may be overreacting. All of the Gators' best performances were at home. This year they visit LSU, Miami, Texas A&M and Ole Miss. South Carolina: I feel bad bursting Gamecocks fans' bubbles with a 6-6 pick. I realize excitement is through the roof thanks to Heisman contender Sellers. But it's asking a lot of Shane Beamer to turn around and reload after losing defensive stalwarts like Bronko Nagurski winner Kyle Kennard, All-American safety Nick Emmanwori and All-SEC RB Raheim Sanders. Hugh Freeze: I'm not sure Auburn can afford a third head-coach buyout in five years. I'm not sure it has a choice if Freeze finishes below .500 again. But he and ex-Oklahoma QB Jackson Arnold should help salvage each other's careers. Auburn was an explosive offense last season when it wasn't giving away the ball (which was often). Sam Pittman: Arkansas improved from 4-8 to 7-6 last season, but Pittman's program still feels like it's treading water. QB Taylen Green is decent but hardly spectacular, and the cast around him is ever-changing. And this year's schedule is brutal: Notre Dame, Texas A&M, at LSU, at Texas, at Ole Miss. Even on the road in Memphis is tricky. Advertisement Mark Stoops: The winningest coach in UK history isn't in trouble — yet. But he will be if this season goes as poorly as I'm predicting. The program has been struggling to keep up in the portal/NIL era, and Stoops has been struggling to find an offensive identity. But maybe journeyman QB Zach Calzada will make me look foolish for 3-9. (Photos of Arch Manning, left, and Kalen DeBoer: Brett Davis / Imagn Images; Gary Cosby Jr. / Imagn Images) Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Play today's puzzle
