Air Turbulence Increases As Air Travel Peaks On Memorial Day

Forbes

20-05-2025

Air turbulence influenced by climate change is expected to double over the next decade. These ... More volatile high-altitude winds can be dangerous, especially clear air turbulence which offers no visual cues and limited time for pilots to respond.
A record-number of people are eager to travel, according to AAA's annual Memorial Day forecast, and many of them are taking to the skies. Nearly 4 million passengers are expected to fly this holiday, a 2% increase over last year, and part of the record-breaking year for air travel. Researchers say many of those travelers can expect bumpier flights as clear air turbulence events are expected to more than double over the next decade.
This convergence of increased flight volume and atmospheric instability raises new questions about passenger protection, airline preparedness and the broader influence of climate change on aviation.
While turbulence has long been an occupational hazard of air travel, evidence is mounting that it is becoming more frequent and severe with climate change as the driver.
The jet stream, a high-altitude river of fast-moving air, is influenced by the temperature contrast between the equator and the poles. As global temperatures rise, especially in the Arctic, this contrast diminishes. However, the warming is also increasing wind shear in some areas of the atmosphere.
This disruption leads to more unstable air layers and gravity wave formations, creating ideal conditions for clear air turbulence. A 2023 study from the University of Reading found that severe clear air turbulence over the North Atlantic increased by 55% between 1979 and 2020. A 2024 study published in JGR Atmospheres expanded the scope, showing increases in moderate-to-severe turbulence of up to 155% across parts of the North Atlantic, Middle East, and East Asia.
This form of turbulence is especially hazardous because it occurs at high cruising altitudes, often between 30,000 and 40,000 feet, and is invisible to radar. Unlike thunderstorms or frontal boundaries, clear air turbulence offers no visual cues and limited time for pilots to respond.
With summer travel poised to break records a string of high-profile turbulence events is reigniting concerns about safety in the skies. In March, a United Airlines flight from San Francisco to Singapore was rocked by severe turbulence over the Philippines, leaving five people injured. This follows an incident a year earlier when a Singapore Airlines flight encountered severe clear air turbulence that resulted in one death and dozens of injuries, drawing global attention to the growing threat of invisible atmospheric hazards.
These are not isolated events but part of a rising trend impacting major global carriers.
For the traveling public, the risk of significant injury during flight remains low. Flying continues to be one of the safest forms of transportation. Still, turbulence remains a leading cause of in-flight injuries, particularly when passengers are not wearing seat belts. Cabin crew members face an even higher risk, as they are frequently standing or moving about in the cabin when turbulence strikes without warning.
Turbulence events pose significant operational and financial challenges for airlines. When aircraft are damaged, routes must be diverted, emergency landings arranged and planes taken out of service for inspection. These events disrupt schedules, strand travelers and increase operating costs.
Legal risks are also mounting. Injuries incurred during turbulence have led to lawsuits, especially in situations where warning systems failed or the seatbelt sign was not illuminated in time.
There is also a reputational cost. In the age of social media, videos of chaotic cabins during turbulence quickly go viral, amplifying public concern and affecting brand perception.
The good news is that advances in detection and forecasting are giving airlines more tools than ever to manage this growing hazard. Turbulence detection has evolved from reliance on pilot reports to a sophisticated network of real-time data sharing and advanced forecasting techniques.
Public and private weather enterprises are using advanced turbulence tools such as IATA Turbulence Aware, the FAA's GTG4, and DTN Enhanced Flight Hazards to help deal with the threat. Many aircraft are now equipped with accelerometers and send objective measurements of air disturbances, known as eddy dissipation rate, back to a central platform. Pilots, dispatchers and flight planning systems can access this live data to adjust routes in real time.
Some carriers, like United Airlines and Lufthansa, are deploying smartphone and tablet-based tools. These use onboard devices to measure turbulence and warn crews before rough air is encountered. Others are integrating next-generation weather feeds directly into flight management systems.
Forward-looking onboard radars are also advancing. These systems can now scan for turbulence up to 60 nautical miles ahead of the aircraft. This gives pilots valuable minutes to change altitude, communicate with the crew or secure the cabin.
Even experimental long-range LIDAR systems are showing promise. These sensors measure the movement of dust particles ahead of the aircraft to detect invisible wind shear layers before they become dangerous.
This summer's record-breaking travel volume will test the limits of airline operations, from route planning and aircraft readiness to real-time communication between the cockpit, cabin and ground crews. With more fully booked flights, tighter turnaround times and an increasingly unstable atmosphere, even a single turbulence incident can trigger cascading delays, costly aircraft inspections and injuries that erode public confidence.
Passengers can do their part by heeding seatbelt signs and remaining buckled when seated. Airlines, for their part, must invest in a layered defense strategy. Integrating turbulence forecasts into pre-flight briefings, using real-time sensing during flight and communicating effectively between cockpit, cabin and ground operations are essential.
As the busiest months of air travel approach, the combination of innovative forecasting, real-time turbulence detection and operational transparency will be critical in keeping passengers safe and flights running smoothly, even when the skies look calm.