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BBC News
9 hours ago
- Science
- BBC News
Why plane turbulence is really becoming more frequent and severe
Andrew Davies was on his way to New Zealand to work on a Doctor Who exhibition, for which he was project manager. The first leg of his flight from London to Singapore was fairly smooth. Then suddenly the plane hit severe turbulence."Being on a rollercoaster is the only way I can describe it," he recalls. "After being pushed into my seat really hard, we suddenly dropped. My iPad hit me in the head, coffee went all over me. There was devastation in the cabin with people and debris everywhere. "People were crying and [there was] just disbelief about what had happened."Mr Davies was, he says, "one of the lucky ones".Other passengers were left with gashes and broken bones. Geoff Kitchen, who was 73, died of a heart as a consequence of turbulence is extremely rare. There are no official figures but there are estimated to have been roughly four deaths since 1981. Injuries, however, tell a different story. In the US alone, there have been 207 severe injuries - where an individual has been admitted to hospital for more than 48 hours - since 2009, official figures from the National Transportation Safety Board show. (Of these, 166 were crew and may not have been seated.)But as climate change shifts atmospheric conditions, experts warn that air travel could become bumpier: temperature changes and shifting wind patterns in the upper atmosphere are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe turbulence. "We can expect a doubling or tripling in the amount of severe turbulence around the world in the next few decades," says Professor Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Reading. "For every 10 minutes of severe turbulence experienced now, that could increase to 20 or 30 minutes."So, if turbulence does get more intense, could it become more dangerous too - or are there clever ways that airlines can better "turbulence-proof" their planes? The bumpy North Atlantic route Severe turbulence is defined as when the up and down movements of a plane going through disturbed air exert more than 1.5g-force on your body - enough to lift you out of your seat if you weren't wearing a show that there are around 5,000 incidents of severe-or-greater turbulence every year, out of a total of more than 35 million flights that now take off the severe injuries caused to passengers flying throughout 2023 - almost 40% were caused by turbulence, according to the annual safety report by the International Civil Aviation Organization. The route between the UK and the US, Canada and the Caribbean is among the areas known to have been affected. Over the past 40 years, since satellites began observing the atmosphere, there has been a 55% increase in severe turbulence over the North the frequency of turbulence is projected to increase in other areas too according to a recent study - among them, parts of East Asia, North Africa, North Pacific, North America and the Middle East. The knock-on effect of climate change There are three main causes of turbulence: convective (clouds or thunderstorms), orographic (air flow around mountainous areas) and clear-air (changes in wind direction or speed).Each type could bring severe turbulence. Convective and orographic are often more avoidable - it is the clear-air turbulence that, as the name might imply, cannot be seen. Sometimes it seemingly comes out of nowhere. Climate change is a major factor in driving up both convective and clear-air the relationship between climate change and thunderstorms is complex, a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture - and that extra heat and moisture combine to make more intense this back to turbulence — convective turbulence is created by the physical process of air rising and falling in the atmosphere, specifically within clouds. And you won't find more violent up and downdrafts than in cumulonimbus, or thunderstorm was the cause of the severe turbulence on Andrew Davies's journey back in 2024. A report by Singapore's Transport Safety Investigation Bureau found that the plane was "likely flying over an area of developing convective activity" over south Myanmar, leading to "19 seconds of extreme turbulence that included a drop of 178 feet in just under five seconds". One study from the US published in the Science journal in 2014 showed that for 1C increase in global temperature, lightning strikes increase by 12%.Captain Nathan Davies, a commercial airline pilot, says: "I have noticed more large storm cells spreading 80 miles plus in diameter in the last few years, something you'd expect to be rare."But he adds: "The large cumulonimbus clouds are easy to spot visually unless embedded within other clouds, so we can go around them." Clear-air turbulence could also soon rise. It is caused by disturbed air in and around the jet stream, (a fast-moving wind at around six miles in the atmosphere, which is the same height as where planes cruise).Wind speeds in the jet stream travelling from west to east across the Atlantic can vary from 160mph to 250mph. There is colder air to the north and warmer air to the south: this temperature difference and change in winds is useful for airliners to use as a tailwind to save time and fuel. But it also creates the turbulent air."Climate change is warming the air to the south of the jet stream more than the air to the north so that temperature difference is being made stronger," explains Prof Williams. "Which in turn is driving a stronger jet stream." 'It should worry us all' The increase in severe turbulence - enough to lift you out of your seat - could potentially bring more incidents of injury, or possibly death in the most severe cases. And some passengers are Mr Davies, the prospect of more turbulence is worrying. "A lot. Not just for me, but my children too," he explains. "I'm pleased there hasn't been an incident as severe as mine but I think it should worry us all".More than a fifth of UK adults say they are scared of flying, according to a recent YouGov survey, and worsening turbulence could make journeys even more of a nightmare for these people. As Wendy Barker, a nervous flyer from Norfolk, told me: "More turbulence to me equals more chance of something going wrong and less chance of survival."Aircraft wings are, however, designed to fly through turbulent air. As Chris Keane, a former pilot and now ground-school instructor says, "you won't believe how flexible a wing is. In a 747 passenger aircraft, under 'destructive' testing, the wings are bent upwards by some 25 degrees before they snap, which is really extreme and something that will never happen, even in the most severe turbulence."For airlines, however, there is a hidden concern: that is the economic costs of more turbulence. The hidden cost of turbulence AVTECH, a tech company that monitors climate and temperature changes - and works with the Met Office to help warn pilots of turbulence - suggests that the costs can range from £180,000 to £1.5 million per airline includes the costs of having to check and maintain aircraft after severe turbulence, compensation costs if a flight has to be diverted or delayed, and costs associated with being in the wrong location. Eurocontrol, a civil-military organisation that helps European aviation understand climate change risks, says that diverting around turbulence-producing storms can have a wider impact - for example, if lots of aircraft are having to change flight paths, airspace can get more crowded in certain areas."[This] increases workload for pilots and air traffic controllers considerably," says a Eurocontrol to fly around storms also means extra fuel and 2019 for example, Eurocontrol says bad weather "forced airlines to fly one million extra kilometres, producing 19,000 extra tonnes of CO2."With extreme weather predicted to increase, they expect flights will need to divert around bad weather such as storms and turbulence even more by 2050. "Further driving up the costs to airlines, passengers and [increasing] their carbon footprint." How airlines are turbulence-proofing Forecasting turbulence has got better in recent years and while it is not perfect, Prof Williams suggests we can correctly forecast about 75% of clear-air turbulence."Twenty years ago it was more like 60% so thanks to better research that figure is going up and up over time," he have weather radar that will pick up storms ahead. As Capt Davies explains, "Before a flight, most airlines will produce a flight plan that details areas of turbulence likely throughout the route, based on computer modelling."It is not 100% accurate, but "it gives a very good idea combined with other aircraft and Air Traffic Control reports once we are en-route". Southwest Airlines in the US recently decided to end cabin service earlier, at 18,000ft instead of the previous 10,000ft. By having the crew and passengers seated with belts on ready for landing at this altitude, Southwest Airlines suggests it will cut turbulence-related injuries by 20%.Also last year, Korean Airlines decided to stop serving noodles to its economy passengers as it had reported a doubling of turbulence since 2019, which raised the risk of passengers getting burned. From owls to AI: extreme measures Some studies have taken turbulence-proofing even further, and looked at alternative ways to build wings. Veterinarians and engineers have studied how a barn owl flies so smoothly in gusty winds, and discovered wings act like a suspension and stabilise the head and torso when flying through disturbed study published in the Royal Society proceedings in 2020 concluded that "a suitably tuned, hinged-wing design could also be useful in small-scale aircraft…helping reject gusts and turbulence".Separately, a start-up in Austria called Turbulence Solutions claims to have created turbulence cancelling technology for light aircraft, where a sensor detects turbulent air and sends a signal to a flap on the wing which counteracts that can reduce moderate turbulence by 80% in light aircraft, according to the company's CEO. Then there are those arguing that AI could be a solution. Fourier Adaptive Learning and Control (FALCON) is a type of technology being researched at the California Institute of Technology that learns how turbulent air flows across a wing in real-time. It also anticipates the turbulence, giving commands to a flap on the wing which then adjusts to counteract Finlay Ashley, an aerospace engineer and member of Safe Landing, a community of aviation workers calling for a more sustainable future in aviation, explained that these types of technology are some time away. "[They're] unlikely to appear on large commercial aircraft within the next couple of decades."But even if turbulence does become more frequent, and more severe, experts argue this isn't cause for worry. "It's generally nothing more than annoying," says Captain it might mean more time sitting down, with the seat-belt Davies has already learnt this the hard way: "I do get a lot more nervous and don't look forward to flying like I used to," he admits. "But I won't let it define me."The moment I sit down, my seat belt goes on and if I do need to get up, I pick my moment - then I'm quickly back in my seat, buckled up again."Top Image credit: Ivan-balvan via GETTY BBC InDepth is the home on the website and app for the best analysis, with fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions and deep reporting on the biggest issues of the day. And we showcase thought-provoking content from across BBC Sounds and iPlayer too. You can send us your feedback on the InDepth section by clicking on the button below.
DW
18 hours ago
- Science
- DW
Why climate change causes more dangerous sinkholes – DW – 07/27/2025
Drought, falling groundwater levels and heavy rains have sped up the formation of huge craters suddenly appearing in the ground known as sinkholes. On the northeastern tip of the Brazilian Amazon, houses teeter on the edge of huge chasms that have suddenly opened up in the ground. The massive sinkholes put over a thousand people at risk of losing their homes, prompting the state government to declare an emergency. Such sinkholes have appeared in cities in all around the world, including the US, Turkey and Iran. They can appear suddenly, posing threats to lives and homes. Sinkholes are depressions in the ground formed when water erodes soil. This can happen naturally when rainfall trickles through the soil, dissolving underlying bedrock. But it can also be the result of leaky underground water pipes, fracking for fossil fuels and mining activity. Sinkholes are more likely to occur in regions with "karst terrain" — areas made up of soluble bedrock such as limestone, salt beds, or gypsum — that can be dissolved by groundwater, said Hong Yang, environmental science professor with the UK's University of Reading. Yang has recently published research on mitigating sinkhole hazards intensified by climate change. "In the United States, about 20% of the land is susceptible, with Florida, Texas, Alabama, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee and Pennsylvania experiencing the most significant damage," he told DW. Other hot spots include the UK, specifically areas like Ripon and the Yorkshire Dales in Northern England, Italy's Lazio region, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, parts of China, Iran and Turkey. Climate change is increasing the frequency of sinkholes by intensifying extreme weather events, according to research. "Droughts lower the water table, removing subterranean support for the land above. When followed by intense storms or heavy rain — which are also becoming more common due to climate change — the sudden weight and saturation of water can cause the weakened ground to collapse," said Yang. He pointed to Turkey's breadbasket, the Konya Plain in central Anatolia. It's a karst terrain where increasing drought means more sinkholes are now opening up in populated regions. Before the 2000s, researchers in the area used to register one sinkhole every few years, said Fetullah Arik, a professor at Konya Technical University who heads the university's sinkhole research center. In 2024 alone, they documented 42. Groundwater levels across the Konya Basin have dropped by at least 60 meters (197 feet) compared to 1970. "In some areas close to the basin edges, groundwater cannot be found, although wells deeper than 300 meters are drilled," he added. Drought linked to climate change is lowering groundwater levels because rainfall is not replenishing water sources. But because people still need access to water, they are pumping lots of it, which in turn, exacerbates the risk of sinkholes. In populated areas, that also means buildings are more vulnerable to collapse. "If you pull water out of a juice box too fast, the sides cave in," said Antonios E. Marsellos, associate professor of geology, environment, and sustainability at Hofstra University in the state of New York."That's like pumping too much groundwater, so the support of the underground weakens and may collapse just like the juice box that bent." Marsellos, who published research on climate change effects on sinkhole formations, said it's made worse in big cities with air pollution where water gets more acidic and breaks down rock faster. Marsellos and his team looked at freeze-thaw cycles in Long Island, New York, over a period of close to 80 years and found that increased temperatures due to climate change has weakened the stability of the soil and has a direct impact on sinkhole formations. Experts rely on technologies such as satellite remote sensing and ground-penetrating radar to detect subtle ground subsidence and underground voids to spot sinkholes before they collapse, said Yang. Other detection methods include monitoring groundwater levels and conducting geotechnical surveys before building in the area. If an empty void is found underground, experts then act like a dentist, said Marsellos. "It's exactly the same thing that we do — we check if there is any cavity, basically any empty space under the ground that eventually will not be able to hold that empty space." Depending on local conditions such as the makeup of the rock and tectonic activity, the cavity could then be filled, with cement, for instance, he said. In Turkey's Konya Basin region, where over 80% of the water consumed is used by agriculture, Akir said the most important factor is to regulate excessive groundwater use so the soil has that natural stabilizer underneath. Farmers have now switched to more efficient irrigation techniques. The region has also tried out a number of water transfer projects, such as the Blue Tunnel project, which takes water from Goksu River to help fill the Konya Plain. Other prevention strategies include controlling drainage and fixing leaks and enforcing strict building codes, Yang said. "Engineering solutions can stabilize the ground by injecting grout to fill voids, compacting loose soil, or using geogrid technology to reinforce the land."To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video
India Today
a day ago
- Business
- India Today
UK universities discuss study, future opportunities with Indian students in Delhi
Ten universities from the United Kingdom have connected with Indian students in New Delhi through a special pre-departure event ahead of the September 2025 half-day gathering, hosted by the British Council and OneStep Global, focused on linking UK education to long-term career and life outcomes for Indian 'Great Aspirations, Great Careers, Great Britain,' the event welcomed over 140 attendees, including students, university officials, and industry It featured panel discussions, expert insights, and interactive sessions on making the most of academic life in the participating universities included the University of Reading, University of Sussex, Lancaster University, University of Bradford, Nottingham Trent University, Kingston University, University of Westminster, and University of HEAR FROM INDUSTRY AND ACADEMIC VOICESThe event provided students with a deeper understanding of academic programmes, course preferences, and the real-world impact of a UK also featured practical advice from a distinguished panel of speakers representing organisations like Hindustan Unilever Foundation, Standard Chartered Bank, Student Circus, Pearson, and The World Houlgate, Deputy Director of British Council India, delivered the opening address, saying, 'Choosing the UK is about more than just getting a world-class education, it's about joining a global community and becoming part of the living bridge that brings the UK and India closer together.'He encouraged students to 'be open-minded, embrace the new, and enjoy every part of the journey both in and beyond the classroom.'FOCUS ON CAREERS AND LONG-TERM VALUEAritra Ghosal, Founder and Director of OneStep Global, said, 'Students today are making choices based on long-term value, careers, networks, and life outcomes. This event was about helping them connect the dots between education and employability.'The event underlined the importance of building professional networks, staying connected with alumni groups, and viewing university life as a launchpad for future more Indian students choose the UK for higher education, such events aim to ensure they begin their journey informed, inspired and well-prepared.- Ends
BBC News
4 days ago
- Science
- BBC News
Nepalese gardeners' compost praised for quality in Reading study
Gardeners from a town's Nepalese community have been taking part in a study into the quality of their homemade from the University of Reading, in Berkshire, found that mustard plants grown in composts, created from kitchen and garden waste, grew better than those in shop-bought Deepti Angra, from the university's department of crop science, said it showed that homemade composts can be a better medium to "supercharge plant growth".The researchers plan to analyse the nutritional content of the mature plants to determine whether the use of homemade compost has any effect on health when eaten. The research project involved the Integrated Research Development Centre (IRDC), which works with underrepresented communities in Reading, with a particular focus on the Nepalese initial trial saw mustard leaves - commonly grown and eaten by the Nepalese community - grown both in glasshouses and found that plants grown in the homemade composts developed more rapidly, produced larger flowers and leaves, and exhibited stronger root Angra said the study confirmed "what many gardeners have long suspected"."The nutrient composition analysis showed our community-made compost was at least comparable, if not better than store-bought options, as it exhibits higher concentrations of micronutrients," she said."This ensures soil enrichment, which better supports the growing plants."Through the project, community members learned to create two types of compost - one from wooden chips and garden waste, the other from kitchen waste, with both showing "excellent growing capabilities".Krishna Neupane, IRDC chair said: "This research has empowered our Nepalese community group to be personally involved in their own waste management and food production."The scientific evidence supporting our homemade compost practices gives confidence to households wanting to make more sustainable, more affordable choices." You can follow BBC Berkshire on Facebook, X (Twitter), or Instagram.
Daily Maverick
5 days ago
- Business
- Daily Maverick
Answering African questions: Why local research is the continent's next frontier
The rising demand for robust African research presents anyone considering a doctoral degree with an extraordinary opportunity to be part of something truly transformative. Imagine trying to solve a puzzle with pieces from a different box. That's often the case when research from other continents is simply parachuted into Africa to address local challenges, whether in health, education or business. And this happens far too often. While Africa's youthful population accounts for close to 20% of the global population, less than 1% of global research output is from this continent. 'This is an extraordinary statistic,' comments Jon Foster-Pedley, Dean of Henley Business School Africa and Associate Pro Dean at the University of Reading. 'But more than that, it's a profound challenge to those of us working in academia to build robust, relevant research capabilities with far-reaching implications for development, policy, and economic growth.' He adds that for those contemplating doctoral studies, this landscape presents an opportunity to be part of something truly transformative. Moving from dependency to partnership Why does local research matter so profoundly in an African context? For one thing, localised research ensures that solutions are genuinely contextual, relevant, and effective, says Professor Danie Petzer, Pro Dean of Research and Doctoral at Henley Business School Africa. 'Whether it's in public health, economic development, or business strategy, understanding the nuances of local realities, priorities, and perspectives can be transformational. When Africa generates its own data and ideas, interventions are far more likely to resonate with and directly benefit its diverse communities. 'This is about building a foundation of knowledge that genuinely serves the continent's unique needs,' he says. Take the work of Phano Ramoeketsi, for example. She is embarking on a PhD at Henley Business School, having won a scholarship for her work to uplift African women and girls. Herself a social entrepreneur who has grappled with the challenges of starting and running a business in Africa, her research will focus on dismantling the barriers that African women entrepreneurs face in the international business arena. DBA student Hugo Ndudzo meanwhile is exploring the development of organisational leadership capacity based on action research in manufacturing plants in South Africa and Zambia and Carol Maluleke is exploring reputation management in the context of non-profit organisations in Africa. 'A thriving African academic base directly elevates African perspectives like these,' comments Prof Petzer. 'When African research institutions foster leadership that can advocate for continental needs, challenge stereotypes, and inform international partners from a position of expertise and credibility, it fundamentally shifts the global narrative from one of dependency to one of partnership.' Advancing indigenous knowledge and promoting ownership Prof Petzer adds that another key benefit of localised research is that it can directly support the protection, documentation, and advancement of indigenous knowledge systems. 'Africa is a tapestry of rich cultural heritage and indigenous knowledge systems, vital for innovation and sustainable development. Investment in African academic growth, by acknowledging the worth of local epistemologies, Africa resists the marginalisation of its intellectual heritage and ensures its integration into modern development solutions, fostering a uniquely African approach to progress,' he says. Locally-led research ultimately promotes a profound sense of ownership. Solutions developed within Africa have significantly higher adoption rates, are more sustainable, and can adapt to emerging challenges quickly. 'African institutions need to support evidence-based policies that measurably improve lives – transforming academic advancements into tangible social and economic benefits that can make a difference,' says Prof Petzer. Andy Innes, musician, businessman and a DBA student at the University of Stellenbosch, is aiming to do just that. His work explores the nexus of culture and the psychological contract in postcolonial and polyculture societies, a complicated-sounding topic that boils down to helping people from different cultures understand each other and communicate better. 'I think our biggest problem in this country is social sustainability. And I think the key to unlocking that problem sits in the space of how people communicate and how they relate to one another,' he says. 'Right now, there is a chasm between people that hasn't really been examined in depth yet. We've looked at race a lot, but to my mind, race doesn't really tell you anything about anyone. It doesn't tell you anything about their culture or the myriad things that make them.' 'Society is not split so much across racial lines as across sub-cultural lines and people in separated or marginalised sub-cultures simply don't have access. They're pretty much excluded from everything that involves socio-economic advancement, which is, obviously, a problem. 'We've got to find ways of addressing this issue, and this starts by defining exactly what it is and how it works.' Sustainable economic growth starts with relevant knowledge creation Ultimately, a robust research and innovation ecosystem acts as a powerful engine for economic development. It fosters entrepreneurship, builds capacity for future industries, and strengthens the crucial ties between academia, business, and government. But growing that 1% of research contribution is no easy matter. Prof Petzer says that the journey to building this vital research capacity faces significant challenges, particularly in funding, infrastructure, and human capital. Institutions like Henley Business School Africa are actively working to address these gaps, fostering an environment where local research thrives. Henley's approach to encouraging local research is unique, especially as a private higher education institution. The model looks beyond the traditional academic and provides a flexible research support system to enable a wider net of consultants and practitioners in the production of thought leadership and research. Most recently, the school h as launched its DBA programme in Africa to ensure that more local students can sign up for this prestigious international degree while pursuing distinctly local research. 'The move is in response to the growing demand from our MBA graduates who are eager to continue studying with us. By leveraging technological advancement and local expertise, we are able to provide a pathway for doctoral studies through an internationally reputable business school right here in South Africa,' says Prof Petzer. 'We are really excited to be able to offer aspiring DBA candidates in business studies the opportunity to contribute to this vital African research landscape. It's about more than just earning a degree; it's about actively shaping the future of a continent through relevant, impactful knowledge creation.' DM
