Trump's Pakistan embrace: ‘Tactical romance' or a new ‘inner circle'?

Al Jazeera

a day ago

Islamabad, Pakistan – In his first address to a joint session of Congress on March 4 this year, after becoming United States president for a second time, Donald Trump made a striking revelation.
He referred to the deadly Abbey Gate bombing at Kabul airport in August 2021 – which occurred as thousands of Afghans tried to flee following the Taliban takeover – and said the alleged perpetrator had been apprehended.
The country he credited with the arrest: Pakistan. 'I want to thank especially the government of Pakistan for helping arrest this monster,' Trump declared.
A little more than three months later, Trump hosted Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir for lunch at the White House on Wednesday — the first time a US president has hosted a military chief from Pakistan who isn't also the country's head of state. Munir is on a five-day trip to the US.
For a country that Trump had, just seven years earlier, accused of giving the US 'nothing but lies and deceit' and safe havens to terrorists – and one that his immediate predecessor Joe Biden called 'one of the most dangerous nations' – this marks a dramatic shift.
It's a reset that experts say has been in the making for weeks, under Trump's second administration, and that was solidified by the brief but intense military confrontation between India and Pakistan in May, during which the US tried to mediate a ceasefire.
Some analysts warn that the evolving relationship should be viewed as a product of Trump's personal position, rather than institutional policy.
'We are dealing with an administration which changes its tune by the hour. There is no process here,' Marvin Weinbaum, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute (MEI), told Al Jazeera.
'One minute the US has no interest, and the next minute priorities change rapidly. You're dealing with an administration that is mercurial and personalised, and you don't associate that with traditional US foreign policy,' he added.
However, others point out that even the optics of Trump hosting Munir are significant.
'Trump's lunch invite to Pakistan's army chief isn't just protocol-breaking, it's protocol-redefining,' said Raza Ahmad Rumi, a distinguished lecturer at the City University of New York (CUNY). 'It signals, quite visibly, that Pakistan is not just on Washington's radar, it's in the inner circle, at least for now.'
The meeting between Trump and Munir came amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, where Israel has been conducting strikes inside Iranian cities since June 13. Iran has retaliated with missile attacks of its own on Israel.
The Israeli offensive – targeting Iranian generals, missile bases, nuclear facilities and scientists – has killed more than 200 people. Iran's missile and drone attacks on Israel over the past six days have killed about 20 people.
The Benjamin Netanyahu-led Israeli government has been urging the US to join the offensive against Iran, which shares a 900-kilometre-long (559-mile) border with Pakistan.
Speaking to the media in the Oval Office after the lunch with Munir on Wednesday, Trump noted that the Pakistanis 'know Iran very well, better than most,' but added that they are 'not happy'.
According to Trump, however, the main reason for meeting Munir was to thank him for his role in defusing the May conflict between Pakistan and India, a confrontation that brought the region, home to more than 1.6 billion people, to the brink of nuclear war.
'The reason I had him here was that I wanted to thank him for not going into the war [with India]. And I want to thank PM [Narendra] Modi as well, who just left a few days ago. We're working on a trade deal with India and Pakistan,' said Trump, who is known to enjoy a warm relationship with Indian leader Modi.
'These two very smart people decided not to keep going with a war that could have been a nuclear war. Pakistan and India are two big nuclear powers. I was honoured to meet him today,' he added, referring to Munir.
The crisis had begun after an April attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that killed 26 Indian civilians. India blamed Pakistan, which denied the charge and called for a 'credible, independent, transparent' investigation.
On May 7, India launched strikes inside Pakistani and Pakistan-administered Kashmir territories. Pakistan responded via its air force, claiming to have downed at least six Indian jets. India confirmed losses but did not specify numbers.
The conflict escalated as both sides exchanged drones for three days and eventually launched missiles at military targets on May 10. It ended only after intense backchannel diplomacy, particularly involving the US, led to a ceasefire.
Trump reiterated his role on Wednesday. 'I stopped the war between Pakistan and India. This man [Munir] was extremely influential in stopping it from the Pakistan side, Modi from the India side, and others,' he said.
While Pakistan has acknowledged the US role, India insists the ceasefire resulted solely from bilateral dialogue. Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri stated on Tuesday that Indian PM Modi had spoken to Trump by phone to underscore New Delhi's view that there was no US-led mediation between India and Pakistan.
Arif Ansar, chief strategist at Washington-based advisory firm PoliTact, said Pakistan's military performance during the confrontation prompted Trump's engagement.
'It demonstrated that despite its political and economic challenges, the country can outmanoeuvre a much bigger adversary,' Ansar told Al Jazeera. 'This has led President Trump to engage with Pakistan's traditional power centres based on core strategic interests.'
That engagement has a long history.
Pakistan's relationship with the US dates back to its 1947 independence, after which it aligned with Washington during the Cold War. After the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Pakistan supported US objectives there, and the two collaborated closely to support the mujahideen that eventually forced Moscow to pull out its troops.
Subsequently, Pakistan also backed the post-9/11 US 'war on terror'.
However, over the years, many within the US strategic community also started questioning Pakistan's credibility as a reliable security partner, especially after 9/11 architect Osama bin Laden was found in Abbottabad, close to Rawalpindi, home to Pakistan's military headquarters in 2011.
Since the Taliban's return to power in August 2021, the strategic partnership has waned further. Pakistan has increasingly turned towards China for economic, military and technological support.
But Weinbaum said that since Trump returned to office, Pakistan has been getting respect that was lacking under the previous Biden administration.
Trump wanted 'counterterrorism assistance,' Weinbaum said – and seemingly got it.
On June 10, General Michael E Kurilla, chief of the US Central Command (CENTCOM), detailed how that cooperation led to the capture of the suspected Abbey Gate bomber.
'They [Pakistan] are in an active counterterrorism fight right now, and they have been a phenomenal partner in the counterterrorism world,' Kurilla said, in a testimony before the House Armed Services Committee in Washington, DC.
According to Kurilla, who also oversees the US military's Middle East operations including Iran, this progress, including the arrest of the Abbey Gate bombing suspect, was made possible due to direct coordination with Pakistan's army chief. 'Field Marshal Asim Munir called me to tell me they had captured one of the Daesh-K [ISKP or ISIS-K] individuals,' he said.
As the icing on the cake for the bilateral relationship, Weinbaum suggested, Pakistan has thrown in 'more goodies, such as a trade deal with no tariffs, offering rare earth minerals, and crypto'. Weinbaum previously served as an analyst for Pakistan and Afghanistan in the US State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research.
Rare earth minerals, critical for industries like defence, robotics and electronics, are among Pakistan's assets now being offered to foreign investors, including the US and Saudi Arabia.
Pakistan has also recently formed a crypto council and held talks with US officials to attract investment and partnerships.
Rumi called the Munir-Trump meeting 'historic'.
'The US wants Pakistan's help in de-risking regional volatility without offering much in return. For Munir, it's an opportunity to reassert relevance and perhaps negotiate manoeuvring space at home,' he said.
Historically, Pakistan's ties with the US have been largely transactional, particularly in the security sphere. US aid and investment often followed Pakistan's alignment with US strategic goals, helping build its infrastructure and military.
But the relationship has also been marked by distrust, with US administrations accusing Pakistan of double-dealing, while Pakistan claims the US has failed to respect the sacrifices it has made while siding with them.
Whether this latest engagement proves to be another fleeting phase or a more durable alignment remains to be seen, say experts.
Rumi, the New York-based academic, said the US has traditionally engaged Pakistan when it needed to, and retreated when it could.
'Unless this relationship is institutionalised, beyond the security lens with which it is viewed, it's another tactical romance. And like past dalliances, it could fade once strategic goals are met or regimes change,' he said.
Ansar added that Pakistan again stands on the brink of a major strategic choice amid the global power shift.
'Much depends on whether it leans toward China or the US. That decision is also tied to the evolving Israel-Palestine conflict and the role of Iran,' he said.
But Weinbaum, the former State Department official, described the reset in ties as temporary, as 'nothing is permanent in this administration'.
'If Pakistan does play some role in the Iran crisis, they have could have more substantial meaning to these ties. But it needs to be prepared that there is nothing settled with this administration. It can change on a dime, at any hour,' he said.
The military remains Pakistan's most powerful institution, exerting enormous influence over politics and society.
It has ruled directly for more than three decades, and the current government, elected in a controversial vote last year, is widely seen as secondary to the military leadership under Munir.
This is consistent with historical precedent. Pakistan's first military ruler, Field Marshal Ayub Khan, had close ties with the US in the 1960s. Subsequent military rulers, including General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq in the 1980s and General Pervez Musharraf in the 2000s, also maintained strong US relations. All three were hosted by US presidents at the White House – but only after they became heads of state.
Munir, now only the second Pakistani to hold the rank of field marshal after Khan, reinforces the perception that Pakistan's real power remains with the military, despite the presence of a civilian government, say experts.
Still, CUNY's Rumi said it was important not to 'confuse symbolism with transformation'.
'This [Trump-Munir] meeting validates the enduring military-to-military track in US-Pakistan [ties], but it also bypasses the civilian setup, which should worry anyone rooting for democratic consolidation. If this is the 'reset,' it's one where khaki once again trumps ballot,' he cautioned, referring to the colour of the military's uniform.
Ansar from PoliTact concurred, saying that the meeting reflects adversely on the civil-military balance in Pakistan, as it showed who remains the 'real power bearer' in Pakistan.
'In the long run, these dealings in the past have led to tremendous political, economic and security-related repercussions for the nation [Pakistan],' he said.
'But additionally, it has promoted a norm that critical decisions impacting the nation must be made in private without discussion, consensus or public ownership. This results in increased societal and political disillusionment regarding the future of the country.'