This airline is facing the ultimate makeover test

Sydney Morning Herald

2 days ago

Virgin Australia has completed one of the largest corporate makeovers in Australian history. From bankruptcy five years ago, in a few weeks, investors large and small will get an opportunity to punt on its shares – to decide whether this is a quality reno or one with just a lick of paint and floorboard polishing.
The vendors, private equity outfit Bain, will be handsomely rewarded, as will a handful of its senior management who could pocket tens of millions of dollars if the airline's hockey stick earnings forecasts are met.
But what about the new band of shareholders who have been offered shares in the new public listing, or those who are thinking of buying into Virgin after it lists at the end of the month?
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Investing in aviation has a long history of being at the riskier end of the spectrum. Airlines are especially sensitive to black swan events such as COVID-19 or 9/11, but they are also susceptible to changing industry dynamics such as new entrants, disruption in market share, or the health of the economy.
In the 25 years since its launch as the cheeky disruptor airline funded by Richard Branson, Virgin Blue has had many corporate faces – not all of them attractive in an earnings sense.
In a financial sense, the period in which it sought to clone Qantas was a speculator failure.
But the common theme has been its position as a challenger to Australia's aviation queen – Qantas.
Virgin Blue was born in 2000 as a low-cost airline that carved out a new market, tapping into price-sensitive leisure customers who could not afford to fly Qantas or its then-rival Ansett, which collapsed the following year.