GCB market could reel from trade tariffs and business uncertainty.

Business Times

a day ago

[SINGAPORE] Owning a detached home in a Good Class Bungalow (GCB) Area is arguably the ultimate status symbol for the super rich in land-scarce Singapore.
Located in leafy residential enclaves, these homes can be great for living and entertaining. They are also good stores of value, enabling owners to potentially enjoy robust capital appreciation.
Recent GCB Area bungalow deals include the purchase by Diona Teh, a daughter of the late tycoon Teh Hong Piow, who founded Malaysia's Public Bank, of a Tanglin Hill area bungalow for S$93.9 million; and shipping entrepreneur Guo Ningbo's purchase of a Leedon Park detached home for S$45.8 million.
The late pioneer architect Alfred Wong's Bin Tong Park GCB Area bungalow was also recently sold for S$45 million.
As economic growth prospects dim due to trade uncertainties, could some of the fizz come off this much coveted segment of the housing market?
There are 39 gazetted GCB Areas, of which the most prestigious include Chatsworth Park, Cluny Hill, Dalvey Estate and Nassim Road.
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Bungalows in GCB Areas have to follow strict planning conditions to preserve their exclusivity and low-rise character. For example, a minimum plot size of 1,400 square metres or 15,070 square feet (sq ft) is stipulated as the planning norm for newly created bungalows in GCB Areas.
GCB Area detached houses are also subject to generally more stringent development guidelines than bungalows outside GCB Areas, including maximum site coverage of 45 per cent.
There are around 2,700 bungalows in GCB Areas and the stock of such homes is seen to be relatively stable. Typically, only Singapore citizens can buy a landed property in a GCB Area.
One may need to spend S$35 million to acquire an old GCB Area bungalow, which sits on 16,000 sq ft of land, plus incur Buyer's Stamp Duty of over S$2 million. Building a new 12,000 sq ft home could cost an additional S$10 million.
Doubtless, scarcity value and Singapore's draw as a place to live and invest for the super rich support lofty prices of GCB Area bungalows.
Nonetheless, US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs could hurt prices of GCB Area bungalows.
To correct trade imbalances with partners and bring manufacturing jobs back to the US, Trump is erecting trade barriers. Superpowers US and China are locked in intense competition.
Much uncertainty surrounds how negotiations between the US and various trading partners will unfold as the US moves away from embracing multilateralism and free trade.
Tough business and stock market outlook
Against the above backdrop, corporate earnings in diverse sectors and economic growth in many countries including export dependent Asian nations will be significantly affected.
Business owners in disparate fields such as consumer goods, finance, logistics, pharmaceuticals, resources and technology may find the going tough and see their wealth accumulation slow or net worth decline.
As Asian business titans and their family members are key drivers of demand for trophy GCB Area homes here, the chilling effects of worsening business conditions could weigh on demand for such homes.
Add to that, many of the super rich are heavily exposed to global financial markets. Weaker equities markets due to uncertain corporate earnings outlook and risks of recession in major economies could hurt the net worth of wealthy families and temper their appetite for big ticket property buys.
Uncertainty and caution
Moreover, uncertainty linked to abrupt and disruptive changes in the US' trade policies and heightened mistrust among nations as they become more assertive on their self-interest, may drive the wealthy to raise their cash holdings instead of tying up funds in relatively illiquid chunky physical property.
A wealthy person may want to have more cash on hand to help deal with sudden cash flow difficulties in a business or declines in dividend income because of a global shock.
Importantly too, people may be more keen to make big ticket buys when they are optimistic about the future and vice versa.
If the super rich grow increasingly cautious and pessimistic on economic prospects because of disruption to the global trading system as well as America's retreat from providing security to allies and championing free trade, they could hesitate to commit to paying princely sums for GCB Area houses.
No Covid pandemic-like recovery
Certainly, the onset of the Covid pandemic induced much panic and fear among the super rich. Yet many billionaires and multi millionaires flourished during the pandemic as numerous governments generously helped business owners and interest rates fell.
Critically, as effective vaccines rolled out, many businesses and economies recovered from the pandemic's dark days.
As the US retreats from globalisation, businesses and stock markets may not reap the benefits of interest rates falling sharply, fiscal purses opening up to aid businesses or a new and effective trading system emerging rapidly.
Many vendors will likely be firm with asking prices for their prized GCB Area homes. However, some vendors may have weaker holding power because of hits taken to their businesses and investment portfolios.
In addition, recurring ownership-related costs of GCB Area homes, such as maintenance expenses and property tax, can be substantial.
Excluding any rebate, the annual property tax of an owner-occupied detached house in a GCB Area with Annual Value (AV) of S$200,000 amounts to S$38,220. The annual property tax of the said home for a non-owner-occupier is S$61,200.
A home's AV is the estimated gross annual rent of the property if it were to be rented out, excluding furniture, furnishings and maintenance fees.
Might GCB Area bungalow owners face stiffer property taxes if fiscal spending rises to help deal with the fall-out from higher US tariffs? As it stands, property taxes on homes here are progressive with higher rates applying to pricier homes.
GCB Area homes here will retain their shine especially as Singapore's safe haven premium may rise in an increasingly messy world.
Still, as deglobalisation, rising business uncertainty and geopolitical tensions dim prospects for many of the super rich, their buying appetite for pricey GCB Area bungalows could weaken.