Iran's Strait of Hormuz Gambit
Iran's Parliament voted Sunday to close the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea passage out of the Persian Gulf. If the regime does this, it will be consistent with Iran's recent behavior, which is to go for its own jugular. Iran is run by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, so the Supreme National Security Council will make the final decision.
Some 20% or more of the world's oil supply moves through the Strait after loading from oil terminals in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Iran. There's no doubt that closing the Strait would send oil prices higher, probably above $100 a barrel for a time. A risk premium for a possible closure has already bumped the oil price to the mid-$70 a barrel range since Israel launched its attacks on Iran.
The world supply of oil is more diverse than it was 20 years ago, thanks in part to American frackers. Some Gulf oil can also move via pipeline from Saudi Arabia. China would be one of the biggest losers from a Hormuz shutdown, as much of its oil comes from the Gulf. Secretary of State Marco Rubio made that point on the Sunday talk shows, urging China to advise Iran against closing the Strait.
Iran can certainly do some short-term damage. The shipping passage through the Strait is two miles at its narrowest and vulnerable to sea mines. Iran could harass ships with its naval forces, notably high-speed patrol boats, as well as drones and missiles from onshore.
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He bombed. Two words and the world went akilter. We get that. Visions blind us: a blocked Strait of Hormuz; $100 per barrel oil; a de-stabilized Iran and mullah revenge; our troops in harm's way; and no end to Israel-Iran missile volleys. Monday's reaction in the market? Always the same. Big institutions sell stocks, which are so-called risk assets, even as we know from the rise in the S & P 500 all of these last 40 years that stocks are hardly risky. No matter, the institutions want cash. They always want cash. They don't know any better. They want to sell the high price-to-earnings ratio stocks and look for safety. They are the drivers of the lower bond yields we will get, especially the 10-year Treasury. To which I say to these institutions, "Whoa there, cowboy." That's been the playbook for them ever since 1982. It's been wrong every time except 2007 when the Great Recession struck. Why did selling fail as a strategy every time but once? Because all of the major waves of selling in the wake of some incident of uncertainty were caused by momentary risk that did not ultimately threaten stocks, or the banking system — or, ultimately, the economy. This time is no different, unless the Strait of Hormuz is closed by Iran. Following Saturday's President Donald Trump -authorized strikes at three Iranian nuclear sites, Iran is said to be considering such a move. On Sunday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called for China to prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the most important trade routes for oil in the world. Crude prices rose in Sunday trading, and U.S. stock futures were lower. I think a conflict with a deeply hobbled non-nuclear, fourth-rate power, that is the current Iran does not create systemic risk even with higher oil. Let's take that off the table. This is not China. This is not on par with a seizure of strategically important Taiwan, which China has threatened to do, or a shutdown of all rare earth materials, which are dominated by China and needed for manufacturing in sectors including autos, semiconductors, and defense. Iran isn't a trading partner. It isn't even much of a trading partner with Russia or China. It lost its proxies through a stealth war against Israel that you could argue they have been winning for ages, simply because they are a terrorist condoning regime. They are no longer winning. They are losing big and seem hellbent on reducing their state to rubble. Given the apparent extent of the damage at the heavily deepened Fordo nuclear site, I also want to take existential risk off the table. Iran has not and will not be allowed to create a nuclear weapon. Israel seems to be able to anticipate everything they do, as Israel seems to have someone(s) infiltrated at a high level. I will not take the Strait of Hormuz off the table because it's the only gambit left of the terrorist regime. We will play that out momentarily — but, spoiler alert, it's not a meaningful plot. I don't detect a possibility of regime change in Iran, however, despite what some of the Western press says, because "the people" there are not going to rise up. And, the Western types are not going to push to overthrow. So, what works then for the CNBC Investing Club's portfolio? Monday's schematic The stock market is controlled, in moments like these, by the S & P futures markets, which overwhelm the opening bell in New York, as they have every time since the 1987 crash. It's axiomatic. It doesn't matter if it is mistaken, which it is. It's just what happens. The S & P futures sellers don't know a health care stock from a semi. They are using the futures as a hedge for their long-side portfolio. So are the hedge funds, except some will use the futures as a way to get short — bet against the market. The money goes into bonds, which due to their inverse relationship, means bond prices go up and bond yields go down. We know that tends to be positive for stocks. Some will choose to buy traditional safety stocks. Again, a mistake. There are now too many flaws. When a Procter & Gamble or a Johnson & Johnson doesn't offer protection — and, they most certainly do not, stay away. Think of how horrendous the food and drug stocks really have been. Most of these are nightmares. Our plan involves knowing and accepting the constraints forced upon us by the overwhelming negative power of the S & P futures out of Chicago. Selling doesn't let you get any palatable prices for your stocks. The good prices were Friday's close. You can sit on your hands and do nothing, which can work in times of uncertainty. Or you can buy, but you have to remember that there will be big institutions that will, all day long, be selling the stocks you want to buy. They will bury you. Here's why: Their sell orders will be huge. The prices they will get on the first parts of their orders will be ugly at the start of the day because of the negative power of the S & P futures sellers. Their sell orders are so large they will be "worked" all day. The traders handling these orders at the brokerage houses, like a Goldman Sachs or JPMorgan, are now you're enemy because they need to demonstrate their selling prowess. That means getting a price for their client that is, in aggregate, better than the closing price of the day. The best way for a trader to handle large sell orders on days like Monday is to skillfully sell when buy bids build and walk away for a bit to let bids build. That's careful selling. Cat and mouse. The worst way to do it is to sell all day at any price and then save a big chunk of the client's sell order for the closing bell, blowing the stock to smithereens. That causes a price that is the low of the day. Therefore, the trader will be giving the customer an average price that is better than the self-controlled, marked-down closing price. The client is oblivious and grateful for an average price that is better than the closing price, even as the execution was sub-optimal. All they know is they "did better" than the closing price. That's why it is so hard to buy on the first day of any sell-off. No matter what you do, whatever price you pay, you will most likely have a loss at the end of the day because of that process. Knowing this, you can't be heroic at the opening. Those who do will try to catch what they think will be the low of the day. When stocks start sinking again, as they almost always do, these opportunists will end up trying to scalp for pennies and will be gone by 10:30 a.m. ET. They will most likely be losers. Day trading stinks. Now, I am presuming if you are a Club member, you aren't on margin, or you wouldn't be reading this. Who wants to read an article by someone who has nothing but contempt for you? If you do have cash, and because the S & P Short Range Oscillator , a market momentum indicator that I have trusted for decades, is flat and will most likely be negative by the end of the day, I am going to err on the side of buying. After all, as long-term investors, one day of trading is not make or break for us. We're in the market for the long haul. If you don't have cash on hand, you sell some of your losers and use the day to reposition. What to buy It's very counterintuitive. The institutions sell the highest multiple stocks. They do so because they are up a lot. Those are the ones we want. These sell-offs give us a chance to get a better average cost basis. Our only obstacle here is that Micron Technology reports this week — and I fear, after this run, that it won't be good enough. Still, I will scan to see what we can buy that will matter. We can buy some industrials. They have been rock solid, and given that we don't see a recession on the horizon, that might be a great bet. I also think that the dollar store stocks will finally come in, and Club name TJX Companies will finally stop going down. Intriguing. Low multiple tech like Bullpen name Cisco Systems or the redoubtable IBM makes sense. I like the data center. I like Club name Amazon as well as Netflix and Tesla with a flat-fee robotaxi. The "normal" winners, the J & J and P & G's, just don't work anymore. After J.M. Smucker two weeks ago, forget food, especially General Mills , which reports this week. FedEx reports, too, making it tough to buy any transports. How about the oils. I would prefer to be a seller, not a buyer. We are pumping roughly 13.5 million barrels a day . We can up that by a million barrels on command from Trump. The Russians are pumping like mad. Who knows what Iran is doing, but it's probably trying to sell as much as it can to pay the bills. Do we really think the Saudis are against what Trump did Saturday? They are grateful and will sell whatever is necessary to keep oil down. Which is why I think that the Strait of Hormuz is not a sustainable worry. It's a big reason why I would be a buyer of the rest of the market. When to act Everyone I know is worried about a big down day. So, I am worried about a big up day. We will know what happens if the selling dries up at 2:45 p.m. ET. Why then? If nothing bad has happened by then, some sellers might walk away. The margined sellers are done. If the selling slows down, shorts will start covering, and some intrepid longs will wade in. There is time for a rally to build, and it won't be met by new sellers because there isn't enough time. If a rally starts earlier than 2:45 on Monday afternoon, it will be overwhelmed by sellers who are grateful for better prices. If it starts much later than 2:45, there won't be time to mount a rally before the 4:30 p.m. ET close. So, if you do wade in, think about waiting an hour after the 9:30 a.m. ET open and some by 3:30 p.m. ET — the latter being hard for us because of the constraints of the Club, which puts our trade alert deadline before 3:15 p.m. ET, because we always wait 45 minutes to execute our trades to give members a shot at the best prices. Be prepared for a long day. Be prepared for plenty of rumors. Be prepared for the Trump haters to say everything is going to be wrong. Be prepared to buy. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
