What's the alternative? The many AUKUS questions the PM must answer
The AUKUS submarine program, announced in September 2021, is the most complex defence project in this nation's history, costing an estimated $368 billion over the next 30 years. But though delivery of vessels is still many years away, it has already reshaped Australia.
Its most obvious effect is on our national purse. A report in April by the Strategic Analysis Australia think tank put spending on the submarines over the next four years at $17.3 billion, compared to the Royal Australian Air Force's capital budget of $12.7 billion. Writing in that report, defence economist Marcus Hellyer said the proposed outlay made the submarine program effectively a fourth branch of the Defence forces, adding: 'It's hard to grasp how unusual this situation is.'
AUKUS has also altered our place in the world of scientific and technological research, with the Defence Trade Controls Amendment Bill, passed last year, eliminating defence trade barriers between the three signatories while putting a question mark over our future collaborations with states outside the agreement.
The most difficult change to measure is in our foreign policy and military posture. While Defence Minister Richard Marles has insisted the deal as signed does not tie us into any US war over Taiwan, our international editor, Peter Hartcher, has described the Morrison government's decision to seek US nuclear submarines as 'Australia … choosing sides emphatically' in Washington's rivalry with Beijing.
As Hartcher noted in his May 2022 account of those talks, Scott Morrison opted not to take then opposition leader Anthony Albanese into his confidence, presenting him with a fait accompli on the eve of the deal's announcement. At the time, the Biden administration was anxious to ensure AUKUS had bipartisan backing in Canberra. Today the boot is very much on the other foot.
The revelation this week of a review into whether AUKUS meets Donald Trump's 'America First' criteria, led by US defence undersecretary Elbridge Colby, who has styled himself an 'AUKUS agnostic', comes as Albanese heads for North America and a probable first meeting with the US president.
It is an event without any of the guardrails of normal diplomacy. From the imposition of his 'Liberation Day' tariff regime to belittling and berating foreign leaders in the Oval Office, Trump's transactional approach leaves everyone guessing.
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Is the Pentagon's AUKUS review just standard operating procedure, as Albanese's ministers insist? Or is it a lever to force increased defence spending by Canberra, something both Colby and his boss, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, have called for? Will it be tied to a change in the terms of trade between our two nations? Or is it, as shadow defence minister Angus Taylor suggested this week, linked to bringing us back into line with Washington on policy towards Israel?
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Tensions between two countries have ebbed and flowed in recent days after Australia, alongside several other countries, was criticised by the US for sanctioning two top Israeli government ministers. Meanwhile the US has called on Australia to increase its defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP and launched a review into the AUKUS agreement to ensure it aligns with its "America first" agenda. The prime minister arrived in Seattle after holding bilateral talks in Fiji, and is expected to depart for the G7 on Sunday local time. Tariffs have also loomed over Mr Albanese's Seattle trip as he prepares to sing the praises of "free and fair trade" to US business leaders. "Free and fair trade has transformed the economies of our region," the prime minister will say in remarks to the Technology and Business Reception on Saturday. "We should not lose sight of the profound opportunities that can be realised by closer and deeper co-operation - the businesses in this room are proof of that. "In a time of global uncertainty, all of you represent cause for optimism." Mr Albanese also visited the Amazon corporate headquarters in Seattle to highlight the company's $20 billion dollar commitment to expanding, operating and maintaining Australian data centres. The global tech giant also announced it would invest in three new solar farms in Victoria and Queensland to help support its infrastructure growth. Though Australia is not a member of the G7, Canadian prime minister Mark Carney invited Mr Albanese to attend. The summit is often used to discuss solutions to major global issues like trade, security, economics and climate change, and in a year largely defined by trade tariffs, the topic is expected to take the spotlight. Throughout the multi-day event, the prime minister is also expected to hold talks with Mr Carney, UK prime minister Keir Starmer and other world leaders.
