Dollar Eyes Weekly Rise into US-China Trade Talks

Asharq Al-Awsat

09-05-2025

The dollar headed for a weekly gain on most major peers on Friday as a US-UK trade deal raised hopes of progress in looming US-China talks, while bets of imminent Fed rate cuts receded after the central bank indicated it was in no hurry.
Financial markets are heading into the weekend with the focus squarely on trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing due to begin on Saturday in Switzerland.
The euro touched a one-month low of $1.1197 in Asia and was down about 0.6% for the week. The yen has weakened about 0.4% this week and hit a one-month trough of 146.18 per dollar, before steadying around 145.48 on Friday.
Sterling, which had rallied on news reports of an impending US-UK trade deal, gave back gains when the agreement turned out to be pretty limited and struck a three-week low of $1.3220 in early trade on Friday.
The "general terms" agreement modestly expands agricultural access for both countries and lowers prohibitive US duties on British car exports, but leaves in place the 10% baseline.
"The market reaction of buying USD may reflect greater optimism that such tariff deals are doable," said Steve Englander, global head of G10 currency research at Standard Chartered, in a note to clients.
"Trump's dangling of the prospect of a trade detente with China may be adding to optimism that the global disruption from trade wars may not be as severe as markets have feared," he said.
"For the time being, G10 markets would be relieved if US and China bilateral tariffs were rolled back, even if they remain well above January 19 levels."
Bitcoin has surged back above $100,000, reflecting a refreshed appetite for risk-taking in markets' more speculative corners.
Announcing the UK deal, Trump said he expects substantive negotiations between the US and China this weekend and that tariffs on Beijing of 145% would likely come down.
The administration is weighing a plan to slash the tariff on Chinese imports by more than half, the New York Post reported, citing unidentified sources, though the White House dismissed that as speculation.
The Australian dollar headed for its first weekly drop in a month, with a 0.7% fall to $0.6407. The New Zealand dollar was likewise lower, clinging to support at $0.5895, just above its 200-day moving average.
On the central bank front this week moves were as expected with the Bank of England cutting, while Sweden, Norway and the United States left rates on hold.
However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks, emphasising the level of uncertainty, were taken as reducing the likelihood the Fed lowers rates any time soon and market pricing for a cut in June has drifted to about 17% from about 55% a week ago.
In contrast with G10 peers, the dollar was lower on several Asian currencies this week after a shock surge in the Taiwan dollar.
After a volatile few days it has settled around 30 to the dollar, more than 6% stronger from where it had finished April. The Singapore dollar is not far from decade highs. The Hong Kong dollar has retreated from the strong side of its band after heavy intervention from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
India's rupee opened under renewed pressure on Friday as conflict between India and Pakistan escalates. It dropped sharply on Thursday and, at 85.55 to the dollar, is eyeing its heaviest weekly fall since 2022.