MSTR, MARA, or RIOT: Which U.S. Crypto Stock is the Bitcoin Maestro?

Yahoo

21-03-2025

As Bitcoin gains adoption across all levels of society, from governments to institutions to individuals, it is fundamentally reshaping corporate crypto strategies, forcing a rethinking of how businesses engage with digital assets.
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Three U.S. companies, in particular, Strategy (MSTR), Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA), and Riot Platforms (RIOT), have emerged as high-profile pioneers in utilizing Bitcoin as a treasury asset. Each has taken a slightly different path, but all have doubled down on their Bitcoin bets regardless of the cryptocurrency's price tilts in recent months.
Let's examine how these three businesses navigate the surge in Bitcoin corporate adoption, tailoring their market strategies to fit their unique crypto approaches…
Strategy, the intelligence software business turned crypto whale, has pioneered what has since become known as 'Bitcoin treasury adoption' under its enigmatic CEO (now chairman) Michael Saylor, who famously started scooping up BTC in 2020. Fast-forward to March 2025, and MSTR has raked in almost 500,000 BTC at an average cost of $66,406 apiece. On paper, that's nearly $9 billion in unrealized gains. Not only has the plucky Bitcoin strategist continued buying, but management has also raised the leverage on their purchases while issuing more stock to obtain more funding. Just a couple of days ago, the company announced its second preferred stock issuance to raise more capital, once again, to buy more Bitcoin.
This strategy might sound brilliant in a bull market, as MSTR's share price tends to leap even faster than BTC itself. Each rally allows them to raise fresh funds (especially as past convertibles become more profitable and can essentially be considered as equity) and buy more Bitcoin, fueling a positive feedback loop. Then again, if Bitcoin tumbles, you're staring at a mountain of liabilities with no easy exit. So far, though, the market has rewarded the boldness, with Strategy's stock soaring roughly 600% in three years. And while the stock has slipped lately, the fact that capital raises continue to be value-accretive (as share issuances and debt offerings occur above NAV or above par, respectively), the company continues to generate substantial shareholder value.
On Wall Street, every analyst covering the stock is bullish. MSTR stock carries a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 11 unanimous Buy ratings over the past three months. MSTR's average price target of $548.91 per share implies over 80% upside potential over the next twelve months.
Unlike Strategy, Marathon Digital isn't just buying Bitcoin via exchange or OTC; it is also minting BTC through mining. With a massive hash rate of around 53 exahashes per second, Marathon's operation can generate a substantial flow of new coins monthly. Today, the company holds over 46,000 BTC in its reserves, marking another company following the 'Bitcoin as treasury' playbook.
Buy why does the mining operation matter? Because it allows Marathon to acquire coins at a cost below market value. Of course, that only works as long as Bitcoin's price stays high enough to cover electricity and overheads. With BTC cruising above $80,000, the strategy is paying off handsomely. If Bitcoin retreats, Marathon's profits will surely follow. The most significant difficulty for MARA is keeping up with energy costs, environmental scrutiny, and the relentless competition from other miners ramping up their hash rates.
Today, MARA owns the second-largest Bitcoin treasury in the world, second only to MSTR. Moreover, with over 90% of the stock price reflected in BTC book value, investors appear to be getting the mining business at a steep discount.
Nine analysts offer price targets on MARA stock via TipRanks, and the stock carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on four Buy and five Hold ratings over the past three months. MARA's average price target of $23 per share implies ~ an 84% upside over the next twelve months, mirroring MSTR's potential.
Riot Platforms joined the treasury strategy a bit later than the others but did it with flair. Last December, the company raised $525 million via convertible bonds and bought 5,000 BTC at about $100,000 each, lifting its holdings to roughly 15,019 BTC. Riot unlocked so much value through this move and attracted so much investor interest that the stock somehow outpaced both MARA and MSTR, rocketing over 550% last year. Since the beginning of this year, the Bitcoin buying spree has continued, with 18,692 BTC on the balance sheet today, making Riot the world's third-largest Bitcoin treasury company. So far this year, the stock is down 24%.
To provide some context about the mining business, Riot's hash rate hovers around 31.5 exahashes per second, lower than MARA's, but it's still substantial. Like any other mining business, the real challenge is juggling debt if Bitcoin's price dips. Mining is capital-intensive, so borrowing can accelerate expansion but also magnify risks.
I like Riot's approach of diversifying its operations slightly, leveraging its massive Texas mining facilities while exploring energy credits and grid balancing to manage costs. So far, so good. Yet, with around 59% of the stock price being backed by BTC, there is also a meaningful margin of safety when it comes to Riot's investment case.
Every analyst covering RIOT stock is bullish. RIOT carries a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 11 unanimous Buy ratings over the past three months. RIOT's average price target of $18.05 per share implies a 132% upside potential over the next twelve months.
The Bitcoin treasury strategy has turned MSTR, MARA, and RIOT stocks into high-risk, high-reward Bitcoin plays. Such plays amplify gains when the king of crypto surges and expose them to the downside if the market retreats. The investment case for any of these pioneering Bitcoin strategy stocks all comes down to whether you believe in Bitcoin's long-term prospects. If you are a BTC bull like I am, all three stocks present significant upside because they are essentially leveraged plays on BTC. Then again, if you're bearish on Bitcoin, they also offer compelling short opportunities.
For the time being, Strategy is the Bitcoin king, given its $73 billion market cap, early-mover advantage, and BTC war chest. However, one could argue that RIOT is the maestro of the three, given its Texas mining angle and diversification measures that somewhat mitigate the inherent risk in any crypto stock.
The alpha here is the extreme volatility and elevated options premiums, which create substantial profit potential for those who position themselves wisely. Personally, I've taken a bullish stance by owning MSTR and selling puts as a hedge. One thing is certain: if you're risk-averse or uncomfortable with volatility, these stocks are not for you.
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