Top weather forecasters are predicting several years of deadly heat. Here's what to know
There's an 80% chance the world will break another annual temperature record in the next five years, and it's even more probable that the world will again exceed the international temperature threshold set 10 years ago, according to a five-year forecast released Wednesday by the World Meteorological Organization and the U.K. Meteorological Office.
'Higher global mean temperatures may sound abstract, but it translates in real life to a higher chance of extreme weather: stronger hurricanes, stronger precipitation, droughts,' said Cornell University climate scientist Natalie Mahowald, who wasn't part of the calculations but said they made sense. 'So higher global mean temperatures translates to more lives lost.'
With every tenth of a degree the world warms from human-caused climate change 'we will experience higher frequency and more extreme events (particularly heat waves but also droughts, floods, fires and human-reinforced hurricanes/typhoons),' emailed Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. He was not part of the research.
And for the first time there's a chance — albeit slight — that before the end of the decade, the world's annual temperature will shoot past the Paris climate accord goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) and hit a more alarming 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) of heating since the mid-1800s, the two agencies said.
There's an 86% chance that one of the next five years will pass 1.5 degrees and a 70% chance that the five years as a whole will average more than that global milestone, they figured.
The projections come from more than 200 forecasts using computer simulations run by 10 global centers of scientists.
Ten years ago, the same teams figured there was a similar remote chance — about 1% — that one of the upcoming years would exceed that critical 1.5 degree threshold and then it happened last year. This year, a 2-degree Celsius above pre-industrial year enters the equation in a similar manner, something UK Met Office longer term predictions chief Adam Scaife and science scientist Leon Hermanson called 'shocking.'
'It's not something anyone wants to see, but that's what the science is telling us,' Hermanson said. Two degrees of warming is the secondary threshold, the one considered less likely to break, set by the 2015 Paris agreement.
Technically, even though 2024 was 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times, the Paris climate agreement's threshold is for a 20-year time period, so it has not been exceeded. Factoring in the past 10 years and forecasting the next 10 years, the world is now probably about 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter since the mid 1800s, World Meteorological Organization climate services director Chris Hewitt estimated.
'With the next five years forecast to be more than 1.5C warmer than preindustrial levels on average, this will put more people than ever at risk of severe heat waves, bringing more deaths and severe health impacts unless people can be better protected from the effects of heat. Also we can expect more severe wildfires as the hotter atmosphere dries out the landscape,' said Richard Betts, head of climate impacts research at the UK Met Office and a professor at the University of Exeter.
Ice in the Arctic — which will continue to warm 3.5 times faster than the rest of the world — will melt and seas will rise faster, Hewitt said.
What tends to happen is that global temperatures rise like riding on an escalator, with temporary and natural El Nino weather cycles acting like jumps up or down on that escalator, scientists said. But lately, after each jump from an El Nino, which adds warming to the globe, the planet doesn't go back down much, if at all.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
CNN
9 minutes ago
- CNN
Hurricane Erin is one of the fastest rapidly intensifying storms in Atlantic history
Powerful Hurricane Erin has undergone a period of astonishingly rapid intensification — a phenomenon that has become far more common in recent years as the planet warms. It was a rare Category 5 for a time Saturday before becoming a Category 4, churning through the Atlantic Ocean north of the Caribbean. Erin went from a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds at 11 a.m. Friday to a Category 5 with near 160 mph winds just over 24 hours later. It put Erin in the history books as one of the fastest-strengthening Atlantic hurricanes on record, and potentially the fastest intensification rate for any storm earlier than September 1. Erin is still 'a formidable Category 4 hurricane', the National Hurricane Center said before Saturday midnight, and is forecast to return to Category 5 strength as it undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle, a process that will cause the storm's windfield to grow in size. Rapid intensification is when a hurricane gains at least 35 mph of wind speed in at least 24 hours. Extreme rapid intensification historically tends to happen in September and October. Even more hurricanes are rapidly intensifying in the Atlantic as the oceans and atmosphere warm in response to fossil fuel pollution and the global warming it causes. This likely makes Erin another example of the increasing extremes of a warming world. Furthermore, Hurricane Erin is now one of only 43 Category 5 hurricanes on record in the Atlantic – which makes it rare, though not as rare in the context of recent hurricane seasons – as peak strength is becoming easier for storms to achieve. It is the 11th Category 5 hurricane recorded in the Atlantic since 2016, an unusually high number. It's also unusual to see a Category 5 storm form so early in the season, particularly outside of the Gulf of Mexico. Mid-August is around the time of peak hurricane activity, but the strongest storms tend to occur later in the season. The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is now the fourth straight season to feature a Category 5 storm, with two occurring last year, hurricanes Beryl and Milton. Hurricane Erin is still expected to avoid a direct hit on any land mass, passing north of Puerto Rico, then curving north-northeast into the open Atlantic between the East Coast and Bermuda next week. As it does so, it is expected to double or even triple in size. Erin is about 150 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico and about 160 miles northwest of Anguilla as of Saturday evening. A flash flood warning has been issued for northern Puerto Rico until midnight Saturday and tropical storm watches remain in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands and parts of the Leeward Islands. The outer bands of the storm will continue to produce areas of heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, the Hurricane Center said. Considerable flash flooding, landslides and mudslides, are possible, it added. The storm is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the US East Coast, and Atlantic Canada next week, according to the National Hurricane Center. Erin sustained winds near 150 mph as of Saturday night, according to the National Hurricane Center. Fluctuations in intensity are expected for the rest of the weekend, as Erin brings rain and strong wind gusts to the Caribbean islands south of it. Erin is expected to persist until Monday, when it will start to slowly weaken. Erin's powerful wind field is forecast to at least double or triple in size next week, resulting in rough beach conditions on the East Coast. The storm is passing just north of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend while making a gradual turn toward the north. It's unlikely it will make a direct landfall on any of the northeastern Caribbean islands, though tropical alerts are in place for some of these areas cautioning potential threats. Erin is forecast to track north over the western Atlantic next week, away from the United States and Bermuda, but that could change if the storm turns more or less sharply than currently forecast. Even if the forecast remains consistent, Erin could cause issues for both places in the form of rough surf and dangerous rip currents. n anticipation of the hurricane, the US Coast Guard captain for the port of San Juan has directed that the ports of St. Thomas and St. John in the US Virgin Islands, and six seaports in Puerto Rico be closed to all inbound vessel traffic unless specifically authorized. Rough seas and rip currents around the islands will continue into early next week. Gusty wind and rain – which could be heavy at times – are also impacting the islands as Erin slides by. Some spots could record 2 to 4 inches of rain this weekend with localized amounts up to 6 inches possible in the heaviest downpours. Intense rain could also cause flash flooding or mudslides. There's plenty of fuel in the region for Erin to tap into as sea surface temperatures are much warmer than normal. They aren't quite as warm as the record levels reached in 2023 and 2024, but are still far warmer than they'd be in a world that wasn't heating up. Erin is the Atlantic's first major hurricane of the season. Four other systems roamed the Atlantic basin before Erin – Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter – but none were stronger than a tropical storm. The first hurricane of the season typically forms around August 11, so Erin was slightly behind schedule, particularly compared to early arrivals in recent seasons. There had already been three hurricanes – Beryl, Debby and Ernesto – by August 15 last year. There will be more chances for tropical systems to develop this month. Longer term forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center highlight the same part of the Atlantic Erin developed in as a place to watch for new storms into at least early September. August is when the tropics usually come alive: The busiest stretch of the season typically spans from mid-August to mid-October. Forecasters expect above-average tropical activity this year. This story has been updated with additional information.
Yahoo
38 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Sick Gazan children denied life-saving medical care by UK visa delays
When Keir Starmer announced last month that he was 'accelerating' efforts to evacuate sick children from Gaza, there were celebrations among medical charities horrified by the humanitarian crisis. Yet Whitehall bureaucracy means that the first children to be treated by the NHS will not arrive until the start of September, nearly six weeks after the prime minister's pledge. The delay may be fatal, according to Project Pure Hope, the charity that has funded the medical evacuations of the only three children to be granted medical visas for the UK. Omar Din, the charity's co-founder, said: 'Each day of delay is costing children their lives. Needless death. A n entire list of patients that Project Pure Hope has readied could die before the UK finally implements its scheme.' On Saturday, 96 MPs wrote to ministers asking them to give a timeline and adequate funding for the evacuations. The letter, coordinated by Dr Simon Opher, a Labour MP, said they should act "without delay" as the children were at risk of imminent death, the BBC reported. Italy took in 31 children and their families on 13 August last Wednesday, having accepted 17 in June. The United States allowed 11 children in early August. The UK's approach contrasts with the previous government's decision to send a team to Kyiv to evacuate 21 Ukrainian children with cancer to the UK for treatment by the NHS days after the Russian invasion. Delays may lead to medical complications. Doctors in Jordan and Lebanon told The Observer they have been forced to postpone treatment for some children because they are too malnourished to recover from surgery. More than 17,000 children in Gaza have been killed and another 33,000 have been injured, Unicef said last month. Din said some of those deaths were due to a lack of basic medical care in Gaza, since many of its hospitals have been destroyed. He said the charity was 'pleased' that the government had accepted its proposal to bring 30 to 50 children and their families to the UK to be treated by the NHS. 'However, the delays establishing a UK scheme for Gazan children are unacceptable and must now proceed at pace and scale,' Din said. 'When a patient arrives with severe acute malnutrition on top of a war-related injury, our first priority is stabilisation, not surgery' Since the Gaza war began on 7 October 2023, EU countries including Spain, Italy, Ireland, Norway and Romania have accepted more than 200 children, mostly with complex medical needs. Most of the 5,000 children needing treatment have been evacuated to other countries in the region, including Egypt, the UAE, Qatar, Lebanon and Jordan. Six children arrived on 6 August at a reconstructive surgery hospital run by MSF, the international medical charity, in the Jordanian capital Amman . Dr Earnest Emetole, deputy clinical director at the hospital, said two of them arrived with 'severe acute malnutrition'. They have been put on a high-protein diet so that they can be stabilised. 'When a patient arrives with severe acute malnutrition on top of a war-related injury, our first priority is stabilisation, not surgery,' he said. 'Malnutrition severely weakens the immune system, causes anaemia, delays wound healing, and can also affect mental health. Operating immediately in such cases carries very high risks, so we focus first on gradually restoring nutritional status.' One of the two malnourished patients who has severe burns requires frequent visits to the operating theatre for dressing changes to prevent infection and protect the wound, a process that is often painful. Once the patient's condition allows, our plastic surgery team will plan a skin graft.' MSF's clinics in Khan Younis and Gaza city are screening more than 1,000 people a week, and there has been 'a marked increase in severe acute malnutrition rates' since the end of June, Emetole said. 'The arrival of these two malnourished patients in Amman reflects the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza and is a direct consequence of the ongoing siege and resulting food deprivation in the Strip.' Project Pure Hope has helped another 30 children from Gaza go to the American University of Beirut hospital, for treatment by a team from the Ghassan Abu Sittah Children's Fund, who have expertise in treating war wounds based on decades of experience of other conflicts. Professor Ghassan Abu-Sittah, a plastic and reconstructive surgeon from London who has worked in conflicts in Gaza, Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, said it was disappointing that the UK government had not done more to help Gazan children. 'The first you know about the fact that the Spanish are doing it is when you see kids landing in Spain,' he said. 'That's the difference [with the UK]. Do you talk about it for six or seven months or do you just get up and do it?' His team is also not able to treat some children because they are severely malnourished, he said. A government spokesperson said they were 'accelerating plans to evacuate children from Gaza who require urgent medical care, including bringing them to the UK for specialist treatment where that is the best option for their care'. Photograph by Abdallah F.s. Alattar/Anadolu via Getty
Yahoo
38 minutes ago
- Yahoo
How to weigh the benefits and risks of disclosing a disability to your employer
Whether you decide to tell your employer about a disability or a long-term health condition is a personal decision. In an ideal world, disclosing this kind of information should be easy – and enable you to access support and accommodations, should you need them. But in reality, it often carries the risk of bias and discrimination. 'I have had long-term mental health issues, autism and ADHD (attention deficit hyperactivity disorder),' says Claire Fisher, head of communications and engagement at Inclusion Barnet, an organisation for deaf and disabled people. 'When I tried to advocate for myself in a previous role, the board had no understanding or expertise in reasonable adjustments,' she explains. 'Instead, they reacted by focusing on why I had not previously disclosed my disability. In fact, I had done so but they had failed to document it or provide any follow up support. At the time I'd not understood myself what should have happened.' Read more: How to stay motivated during a long job hunt Legally, nobody has to tell their employer they're disabled, have a health condition or that they are neurodivergent. But if you have an informed and supportive employer, telling them can give them the opportunity to provide support. For many, though, deciding whether to tell an employer about a disability or condition involves weighing up the benefits and risks. So what should you take into consideration before deciding what is best for you – and how can you approach the conversation? Consider your employer's attitude First, do your research on the organisation. 'What do existing employees say, how do they talk about health, disability, long-term conditions?' says Fisher. Have a look on the company's website and social media accounts to see if there is any mention of inclusivity. You could also look at reviews left by current or former employees on sites like Glassdoor, which can provide an insight into an organisation's culture. Think about your needs It can help to consider your wants, needs or requirements before disclosing personal information about yourself. For example, if workplace adjustments like working from home or an adapted desk are non-negotiables, telling your employer may be the right move. Equally, it may be important to you to be able to speak openly about yourself – which is a valid reason. Consider the pros and cons Some positives of disclosure include legal protections from discrimination, the chance to discuss health-related needs, support from management and access to accommodations. 'Often, a few simple adjustments can make a world of difference to both the employee and the employer – everyone wins,' says Fisher. However, it's common for a disability disclosure to lead to negative attitudes – both intentional and unintentional. Studies show that telling an employer can lead to accusations of 'faking' it, as well as stigmatisation and bullying. According to a 2025 survey by the TUC, half of disabled workers reported being bullied or harassed in the past year, with experiences ranging from exclusion from activities to verbal and physical threats. 'Employers may make assumptions about what you can and cannot do based on misinformed knowledge of your condition or impairment,' adds Fisher. 'Awareness of others mistakenly feeling like they need to tread on egg shells around you or protect you from certain duties can be patronising.' Know your legal rights It's essential to know your legal rights so that you can spot discrimination in the first place and decide if and how you want to address it. 'If an employee does not disclose a disability to their employer, it cannot generally be held that they discriminated against the employee because of it,' says Kate Palmer, employment services director at Peninsula. 'If they were to bring a claim of disability discrimination, it would fail.' Read more: How to give your job applications a 'human touch' in the AI era However, Palmer explains that if an employer could reasonably have known about a disability – for example, seeing an employee use a walking aid – they have 'constructive knowledge' and can be liable for any unfair treatment. 'Employers have a legal duty to make reasonable adjustments for employees with a disability,' says Palmer. 'Where this does not happen, the employee is entitled to make a claim to an employment tribunal. It's important, therefore, for employers to discuss with their employees any adjustments that may help and, where these are reasonable, to make them.' Choose the right time Disclosing may help you access accommodations, but choosing the right time is important. Whether you talk about your condition in a job interview is your choice, but it can lead to discrimination. 'Employers should not ask job applicants any questions about their health or medical history until after a job offer has been made and accepted, except in specific circumstances permitted by the law,' says Palmer. If a candidate discloses a medical condition after accepting a job offer, employers must ensure they make reasonable adjustments to remove any barriers to work caused by a disability. Focus on your skills If or when you do disclose, focus on your skills, experience and expertise – and how these align with the company's goals and values. 'Be clear about what reasonable adjustments you need, if you know,' says Fisher. 'It would be impossible for any employer, even if they had other staff with the same condition or impairment as you, to know exactly what you need to succeed in the role. You might not fully know yet yourself. If you can go in with possible solutions and an open mind to work together with your employer you can usually work something out.' Read more: What to expect from a maternity discrimination employment tribunal Deciding whether to disclose a disability at work is rarely simple. It's a balance between protecting your privacy and ensuring you have the support you need to thrive. By weighing the culture of your workplace, understanding your legal rights and thinking about your personal needs, you can make a choice that feels right for you. Ultimately, the responsibility for creating inclusive workplaces lies with employers – but until that's the norm, only you know what the right decision is. Read more: How to speak to your boss about miscarriage How to stay motivated during a long job hunt Does mental health first aid work?Sign in to access your portfolio
