
Texas Christian summer camp flooding eerily similar to 1987 disaster on same river
The 1987 Guadalupe River flood caught campers by surprise on the evening of July 16 after an unexpected thunderstorm strengthened by a cold front dumped nearly 12 inches of rainfall over Hunt, Texas.
4 A flood at the Guadalupe River in 1987 claimed the lives of 10 teenagers at a church camp.
National Weather Service
The camps located along the river quickly started to evacuate early the next morning as water levels swelled to 29-feet high — after rising a frightening 25 feet in just 45 minutes, according to the National Weather Service.
More than 300 campers from multiple churches were staying overnight at the Pot O' Gold Ranch, including one group of 43 from a Seagoville Road Baptist Church and Balch Springs Christian Academy, according to a memorial plaque erected at the entrance to the ranch.
The campers were loaded onto their buses and caravans around 7:45 a.m. on July 17, according to the National Weather Service as water levels continued to surge, stretching from Ingram to Comfort, Texas and extending almost a mile beyond its typical bank.
4 Most of the 300 campers escaped, but flooding cut off one bus and van.
National Weather Service
As the fleet was leaving the ranch, the flood reached the camp gate, forcing them to try an alternate route. But not every vehicle managed to escape.
The final bus in the caravan, carrying members of the Seagoville Road Baptist Church, and a small van behind them slammed into the backwash and became stranded, according to the NWS.
4 Campers and staff aboard the stranded vehicles formed a human chain to try and stay together, but were swept away.
National Weather Service
Church leaders rushed the teenagers out of the vehicles, but encountered a wall of water nearly half a mile wide while they were trying to wade through the flood to dry ground.
The group formed a human chain to try and best the current, but were quickly scattered.
Ten of the teenagers swept away died in the flood, including a girl named Melanie Finley who fell to her death during a rescue attempt, KSAT reported.
The remaining 33 children and adults clung to treetops until they were rescued via helicopter by the Texas Department of Safety, members of the US Army and a local television station.
4 Some of the 1987 flood victims plummeted to their deaths.
National Weather Service
In the years since the devastating flood, few additional safety measures have been put in place.
On Friday, Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly said at a news conference that the area doesn't 'have a warning system' and that they 'didn't know [Friday's] flood was coming.'
Around 23 girls with Camp Mystic are unaccounted for after their cabins fled the area on Friday. Hundreds of rescue personnel are scouring the area for them and any other survivors.
Thirteen people are reported to have died in the flood so far, local authorities said.
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Time Magazine
28 minutes ago
- Time Magazine
Texas Floods: Search for Camp Girls as Death Toll Rises
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National Hurricane Center increases odds of tropical development near Florida over July 4th weekend
Chances for a tropical system to develop continue to increase, although there is a bit of good news for Florida over the Fourth of July holiday weekend, according to forecasters. Well, maybe not great news if rain over a holiday weekend isn't your thing. An area near the U.S. coast is being monitored for slow tropical development in the coming days. The large area of interest is located a few hundred miles to the east of Florida's Space Coast, according to AccuWeather. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location The system has a 60% chance for development over the next seven days and 30% chance over the next 48 hours, as of the 2 p.m. advisory July 3. The good news is that forecasts call for potential development to occur in the Atlantic, instead of in the Gulf, which could have sent the system over Florida. 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Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts northward or northeastward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S.,particularly across the west-central Florida coast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on the Fourth of July, if necessary. Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 30 percent. Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 60 percent. "Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across West-Central Florida," the Florida Department of Emergency Management said. "Those heading to the beaches for the holiday weekend from northern Florida and the Alabama and Mississippi panhandles to the Carolinas are urged to monitor the forecast, as there may be rough surf and rip currents and perhaps gusty winds should a tropical depression or storm develop," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, adding, "We feel the development window is from around July 4 to early next week." "From July 4 through early next week, conditions will favor rounds of drenching thunderstorms from parts of Florida to the coastal Carolinas, fueled by tropical moisture and lingering atmospheric instability," AccuWeather said. The system of low pressure expected to develop over the holiday weekend is being squeezed between a high-pressure system moving east from the Ohio Valley and the Bermuda High over the central Atlantic, according to AccuWeather. "Which high ends up exerting more influence may determine the track of the tropical area of interest, should it develop," DaSilva said. "If the Bermuda high is stronger, it could push the tropical feature close to the U.S. coast and potentially shorten the development window. "On the other hand, should the high building in from the Midwest be stronger, it could shunt the tropical feature more offshore over the Atlantic, where it might have more time to evolve and strengthen." Flossie has weakened and is now a tropical storm with 60-mph winds, according to the National Hurricane Center at 2 a.m. MST. Steady weakening is expected during the next day or so, with the system forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later July 3. Flossie is expected to move toward the west-northwest at 9 mph. This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome. The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high. The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception. "If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said. Named storms historically develop close to the U.S. in July, especially in the Gulf and off the Atlantic coast between Florida and the Carolinas. Later in the season, tropical storms and hurricanes develop out of tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa. Elsewhere in the tropics, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring four tropical waves, including one in the Caribbean. A second wave in the Caribbean on July 2 has moved across Central America and is now in the eastern Pacific: Tropical wave 1: A tropical wave has an axis along 29W in the eastern Atlantic, from 16N southward, moving west at around 11 mph. Tropical wave 2: Another tropical wave is along 43W, south of 15N, moving westward at around 11 mph. Tropical wave 3: A third tropical wave is along 54W, south of 15N, moving westward at around 11 mph. Tropical wave 4: A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 18N, moving westward at near 17 mph. The wave is helping to induce some scattered moderate convection over and near Haiti. Florida weather forecast for July 3, 2025 Pensacola, western Panhandle: It is looking more likely that any impacts from a potential tropical system will remain well east of the area, according to the National Weather Service Mobile. High 93 and sunny July 3. Tallahassee, central Panhandle: "Our typical summer showers/storms will continue through the weekend," the National Weather Service Tallahassee said. High July 3 near 92 with 50% chance for showers and thunderstorms after 1p.m. Jacksonville, North/Northeast Florida: "Daily rounds of storms are expected through the weekend. This will elevate the flood risk for Northeast Florida, especially across north-central Florida, where amounts will be the greatest," the National Weather Service Jacksonville said. High July 3 90 with showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2 p.m. Daytona Beach to Stuart, East/Central Florida: Regardless of tropical development, high rain chances and the potential for locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding will persist through at least Saturday, the National Weather Service Melbourne said. Highs range from 87 in Daytona Beach to 86 in Stuart. West Palm Beach to Naples, South/Southwest Florida: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today may again result in localized flooding, especially over east coast metro areas. Expect another warm day with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to around 90, the National Weather Service Miami said. Highs range from 90 in West Palm Beach to 86 in Naples. Fort Myers to Sarasota, West/Southwest Florida: Showers and storms expected throughout the day. First near the coast in the morning, then shifting inland late, the National Weather Service Tampa Bay said. Highs today range from 84 in Fort Myers to 81 in Sarasota. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said. The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories. The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center. Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include: Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin. To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi. Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated: : for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific. : for storms in the Northwest Pacific. : for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean. We will update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This story has been updated to include new information. This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: NOAA tracking system off Florida showing potential for development