Why the new Jeremy Corbyn party is a problem for the SNP
Jeremy Corbyn is going to formalise his "Independent Alliance" of MPs and, alongside Zarah Sultana, work on a new party on the left of British politics.
It's a big move. Polling tells us that such a party could cost Labour up to 10% of their vote. Corbyn, nearly six years after announcing he'd quit as Labour leader, still has significant influence over and pull among UK leftists.
With widespread anger over how the Labour Government has handled issues like Gaza, disability cuts, the two-child cap, Waspi women, and NHS England reform – all part of the party's general move rightwards under Keir Starmer and Morgan McSweeney – it seems likely that disenfranchised left-leaning folks could be won over by a new outfit.
But what it means for Scotland is especially interesting.
Recent polling tells us that Scottish independence is supported by at least half of the population. At the same time, the link between independence support and SNP voting intention is broken. The SNP are polling in the low 30s, struggling to regain the highs of three years ago despite this shambolic Labour Government limping along from week to week.
We've seen from a number of elections now that the SNP voters are just not that motivated to get out and vote. Different people I speak to inside the party and out offer various explanations. Operation Branchform removed trust, John Swinney isn't enthusing the electorate, there's a lack of vision being put forward, disappointment over the SNP going quiet on Gaza, and, most commonly, independence isn't on the agenda.
We know basically nothing about Corbyn and Sultana's new party. We don't know its name or who it will entice into its fold. However, thanks to Govanhill-based poet and writer Jim Monaghan, we know there is a "Scottish secretariat" – basically a working group looking at how to set up this new project north of the Border. According to Jim, Corbyn's policy will be that he wouldn't stand in the way of independence, and members and representatives would be free to advocate for a Yes vote should they wish.
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Looking ahead, I think this poses a new challenge for the SNP – and the Scottish Greens – particularly with young Scots who are outraged by what they have seen play out in Palestine.
I am 27. I have friends and peers from various backgrounds, but many of them not really political. They care deeply about Gaza and are, to say the least, absolutely infuriated that the UK establishment hasn't done more to stop Israel's actions. The message from Corbyn and Sultana is one that resonates. Angus Robertson's meeting with the Israeli ambassador (which we still don't have meeting notes for) does not.
Young Scots are also extremely concerned about climate change and how it will impact their futures. Seeing the SNP move increasingly towards a pro-oil position, after years of Nicola Sturgeon pledging no new drilling, does not impress.
The SNP have lost some support to the Greens, while other supporters have given up on the whole democratic system altogether. While I wouldn't want to predict the fortunes of a new party I'm currently fairly in the dark about, it wouldn't be unreasonable to think Corbyn and Sultana's apparently indyref-friendly, pro-Palestine, climate-conscious outfit could pose a new threat to Swinney's ailing team. Especially when they don't have concrete proposals for delivering independence for Scotland.
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As Labour leader, Corbyn's plans for England always sounded familiar. Free tuition fees, free prescriptions, nationalised water and rail, etc ... that's just SNP policy. What was presented in the English tabloids as radical, extreme, 1970s socialism, is already in place north of the Border. The long-serving MP has been criticised for failing to acknowledge that – and like most London-based leftists is often accused of "not understanding Scotland". With those in charge of Corbyn's project largely within the confines of the M25, this could be a major hurdle for them to overcome in courting Scottish voters.
Whatever happens, we've already seen how the British media is going to treat this new party. On social media last night you could hear the guffawing of the Westminster reporters as rumours emerged that Corbyn wasn't happy with how Sultana announced the move. This out-of-touch, smug attitude from those at the top of the media food chain is exactly what will propel people towards an alternative party like this.
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