What Russia gets out of Trump-Putin meeting on Ukraine – DW – 08/12/2025

DW

4 days ago

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Donald Trump will meet in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine war. How will the summit benefit Russia?
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Donald Trump have agreed to meet in Alaska on August 15 to discuss the war in Ukraine. The meeting was announced shortly before Trump's ceasefire ultimatum was set to expire. Although experts doubt the summit will deliver any major breakthroughs, some factors could force Putin to agree to a ceasefire.
The upcoming meeting is the first time both leaders are coming together since US President Trump's reelection. In mid-July, Trump said he was disappointed with Putin over Russia's bombing of the Ukrainian capital Kyiv but also said that he was "not done with him yet."
The White House and Kremlin announced the meeting after US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff visited Putin in the Kremlin on August 6, though it is unclear what exactly will be discussed in Alaska.
We do know that the talks will focus on Ukraine, but the country itself will not be represented at the meeting. Washington and Moscow are not planning for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to attend the summit.
All experts DW interviewed about the upcoming summit expect it will primarily benefit the Russian president.
"Putin has always been keen to ensure that he and the US president — whoever holds that office — decide the fate of the world, and that corresponding images are broadcast around the world," Russia's former prime minister Mikhail Kasyanov told DW.
Russian exiled opposition politician Dmitry Gudkov told DW the Alaska meeting would provide a unique opportunity for Putin to shake hands with one of the leaders of the West.
"The mere fact that Putin has the chance to meet Trump is already a huge plus" for the Russian president, Gudkov said. "Trump is basically legitimizing a war criminal and allowing Putin to participate in negotiations with the West."
If it weren't for Trump, Gudkov said, no Western leader would be negotiating with Putin.
It became clear in late July that Trump was annoyed by Putin's unwillingness to end the fighting in Ukraine. Trump declared that he was no longer interested in talks with Putin and gave him an ultimatum of 50 days to find a peaceful solution to the Ukraine war, which he later shortened to just ten days.
Experts told DW they believe that the realization that Trump is losing patience may have prompted the Kremlin to agree to the upcoming talks.
Kirill Rogov, a political analyst who heads the Russian-language online media outlet which publishes analyses by Russian scientists, says a number of factors may compel Putin to seek an end to the Ukraine war.
Rogov points to the weakened Russian economy, the sluggish advance of Russian forces in Ukraine and secondary US sanctions that could harm Russia.
"Putin also hopes to extract the highest possible price for his approval at this moment. By the end of the year, Putin could be in an even worse position if it turns out that the Russian offensive has had little effect and the battlefield situation remains unchanged," Rogov said.
Further US sanctions could also cause Russia to lose India as a buyer of its crude oil and force it to prepare for yet another offensive in Ukraine for the third year in a row.
Last week US news outlet published a report citing anonymous sources indicating that the Kremlin had realized that Steve Witkoff's Russia visit represented the last opportunity to reach an agreement with Trump. said the Kremlin may now offer an airspace ceasefire by way of a concession.
Gudkov, however, believes this approach, coordinated with the Trump administration, would primarily benefit Russia rather than Ukraine. Gudkov said Ukraine has carried out "effective" counterattacks against Russia, which resulted in the temporary closure of Russian airports on numerous occasions. He said Ukraine had also struck weapons depots, military equipment and oil refineries in Russia.
This, he added, was important from a psychological point of view, making Russians understand the war is raging close to home, not far away, solely playing out on their televisions.
"If these [Ukrainian] air strikes stop, Putin will calmly continue his advance on land, where he has the advantage," Gudkov told DW.
Yet Russian President Putin may not face any serious consequences, even if both leaders fail to make any significant progress during the upcoming Alaska talks, says political analyst Rogov.
"Putin can count on Trump to be lenient with him because Trump's attitude toward Putin has always been special," Rogov told DW. "Trump always avoids situations where direct pressure is exerted on Putin. And every time pressure seems inevitable, Trump declares that a new opportunity to reach an agreement has risen and therefore no real pressure is needed." He cites talks between Putin and Trump against the backdrop of the expired ceasefire ultimatum as one such example.
Gudkov believes that there are no real means left to put pressure on Russia. For example, despite sanctions, hundreds of tankers continue to transport Russian oil across the world's oceans.
Gudkov thinks a quick ceasefire is more likely to result from domestic factors that could put pressure on the Kremlin rather than external factors. The longer the war lasts, Gudkov says, the harder it will be for Putin to sell it as a Russian victory.
"At some point, Russians won't care whether Ukraine is in NATO or how this war ends — they will only care about it ending," Gudkov said.