Leinster v Bulls preview: If Leinster are on it, they're good enough to win
URC Grand Final: Leinster v Bulls, Croke Park, Saturday, 5pm – Live on TG4 and Premier Sports 1
At times the title Grand Final can seem, well, a little too grandiose. But rarely has the
United Rugby Championship
(URC) title decider seemed this aptly named, for
Leinster
and the Bulls are truly among the grandees of European and southern hemisphere
rugby
.
After all, only
Toulouse
have won more
Champions Cups
than Leinster and when the South Africans left Super Rugby only the Crusaders had won that competition more often.
Furthermore, the top eight qualified for the URC's knock-out stages, so the top four reached the semi-finals and now the first- and the second- placed sides will contest the final. This hasn't happened in the four-year iteration of this competition.
No other URC team would be less remotely in awe of the occasion, ground or opposition than the Bulls, who have won seven from nine away games. Lacking the stardust of the
Springboks
-laden Sharks, as they showed last week the Bulls are an altogether better coached, more cohesive team. They'll revel in taking on Leinster, or Ireland in a different colour, as Jake White has labelled them, at
Croke Park
after having won Leinster in two semi-finals at the RDS in 2022 and at Loftus last year.
READ MORE
Leinster finally cast away their
post-Northampton hangover
and rediscovered their mojo when
they convincingly beat the Warriors
in last week's semi-final. But much of Leinster's supremacy against the Warriors was founded in their scrum and lineout maul. They won't be able to squeeze the Bulls, who've had a 94.7 per cent scrum success rate while earning a competition high of 62 penalties (Leinster have forced 54) and conceding just 20.
Scrum dominance was critical when the Bulls inflicted Leinster with their first defeat of the season last March in Pretoria, and referee Andrea Piardi tends to favour the scrum which is going forward, by whatever means.
The Bulls will also bring more muscle to the collisions, witness them having the best metres per carry of any team in this season's URC.
Tommy O'Brien
,
Jimmy O'Brien
and
James Lowe
probably won't be able to dominate the air to the same extent as against Glasgow given Canan Moodie's brilliant chasing and aerial skills, in tandem with the assuredness of Willie le Roux and the inventive Sebastian de Klerk. That aerial contest promises to be worth the entry money alone and could well prove pivotal.
Canan Moodie and Mornay Smith in Croke Park in advance of the URC final. Photograph: Ben Brady/Inpho
As well as being first and second in the final table, these are the two most prolific try-scoring and points-scoring teams, and, as White also noted: 'The two teams that kick the most are Leinster, one, and Bulls, two.
'So, there's a reason why those two teams are one and two. That strategy works and that's why we have guys like Canan Moodie and you have James Lowe that can do it well. It will be very important, it's about who manages it the best. The team that manages that part of the game will be victorious.'
To that end, White added wryly: 'When I got here I couldn't believe the sunshine for two days in Ireland. I thought rain must be on its way. Hopefully on Saturday it rains.' White looks like being at least partially satisfied given showers are forecast.
Another concern from a Leinster perspective is the form of
Sam Prendergast
, and specifically his goal-kicking and tackling; his confidence seemingly as affected as any player by that Northampton defeat.
It's easy to forget he's still only 22, and he's been asked to take on a huge amount this season. Last season he started only four games for Leinster, all in the URC, and started all three games on the Emerging Ireland tour last September/October. This season, he has started 20 of his 23 games for province and country, including six for Ireland and all seven of Leinster's Champions Cup games. Maybe this is all taking its toll.
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Leinster coach Leo Cullen on facing Bulls: 'We know we're in for a serious bloody challenge'
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There must have been some discussion about starting
Ross Byrne
in his farewell game for Leinster, or even moving
Jordie Barrett
to outhalf to stiffen that channel defensively, given the Bulls are sure to go there.
As well as Barrett on his outside shoulder, at least Prendergast has the in-form heartbeat of the team,
Jamison Gibson-Park
, on his inside. Prendergast is also well capable of taking encouragement from an early place kick or two and having a belter.
Another concern from a Leinster perspective is the form of Sam Prendergast. Photograph: Laszlo Geczo/Inpho
Another concern is whether Leinster can again dip into the siege mentality of last week, all the more so as the Lions loom immediately into view next week, and 10 of their chosen dozen play here. How do they all successfully park that?
Leinster trail the head-to-head by 4-2 but this is a little misleading. The Bulls sent over a stronger side when beaten 47-14 at the RDS last season than Leinster did when only beaten in the last minute at Loftus in March, and Leinster have won all 11 home games in this competition this season.
If Leinster are, as
Jack Conan
put it last week, 'on it', then they're good enough to win.
Either way, it seems entirely fitting that these two are contesting the final, and that if Leinster are to win their first URC title per se they'll have to overcome the Bulls, and indeed vice versa.
Leinster have earned the right to sleep in their own beds this week and host the final in their capital city, whereas the Bulls have had to switch hemispheres, albeit that didn't prevent Munster and Glasgow winning the last two finals in Cape Town and Pretoria.
Ultimately, whoever wins the 2024-25 URC will be worthy champions.
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Matt Williams: Bulls have a simple, winning game plan, and Leinster must simply smash it
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LEINSTER:
Jimmy O'Brien; Tommy O'Brien, Garry Ringrose, Jordie Barrett, James Lowe; Sam Prendergast, Jamison Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, Thomas Clarkson; Joe McCarthy, James Ryan; Ryan Baird, Josh van der Flier, Jack Conan (capt).
Replacements:
Rónan Kelleher, Jack Boyle, Rabah Slimani, RG Snyman, Max Deegan, Luke McGrath, Ross Byrne, Jamie Osborne.
BULLS:
Willie le Roux; Canon Moodie, David Kriel, Harold Vorster, Sebastian de Klerk; Johan Goosen, Embrose Papier; Jan-Hendrik Wessels, Johan Grobbelaar, Wilco Louw; Cobus Wiese, JF van Heerden; Marco van Staden, Ruan Nortje (capt), Marcell Coetzee.
Replacements:
Akker van der Merwe, Alulutho Tshakweni, Mornay Smith, Jannes Kirsten, Nizaam Carr, Zak Burger, Keagan Johannes, Devon Williams.
Referee:
Andrea Piardi (FIR).
Previous meetings – 2021-22:
Leinster 31 Bulls 3;
Semi-final:
Leinster 26 Bulls 27.
2022-23:
Bulls 62 Leinster 7.
2023-24:
Leinster 47 Bulls 14;
Semi-final:
Bulls 25 Leinster 20.
2024-25:
Bulls 21 Leinster 20.
Route to final: Leinster 1st (76 points) – QF:
33-21 v Scarlets (home); SF: 37-19 v Glasgow (home).
Bulls 2nd (68 points) – QF:
42-33 v Edinburgh (home);
SF:
25-13 v Sharks (home).
Leading try scorers – Leinster:
Dan Sheehan, Jamie Osborne 7 each.
Bulls:
Canan Moodie 9, David Kriel 8.
Leading points scorers: Leinster –
Ross Byrne 78.
Bulls –
Kriel 90.
Betting:
1-7 Leinster, 30-1 Draw, 9-2 Bulls.
Handicap odds (Bulls + 11 pts):
10-11 Leinster, 20-1 Draw, 10-11 Bulls.
Forecast:
Leinster to win.
How can Leinster end their Bulls hoodoo?
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