Improving Weather Forecasts: New Buoys and Floats to Enhance Monsoon Predictions in Bay of Bengal
After numerical weather prediction models failed to detect several systems over the north Bay of Bengal during this southwest monsoon season, scientists are set to deploy more drifter buoys and Argo floats to relay more accurate ocean and atmospheric data.
'We want to deploy them from next year,' says M Ravichandran, secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences. 'What we understood this season is that many lowpressure systems formed over the Bay, but none of the models could pick them up. We can forecast cyclones, but these small circulation patterns, which bring intense rain to central India, are missed because we lack surface pressure data. Drifters with pressure sensors can provide the data needed for better forecasts.
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Part of the Mission Mausam initiative, INCOIS officials say they deployed three drifters in the Arabian Sea and will deploy two more in the next few days. Another 10 will be deployed in the Bay of Bengal soon. This year, the north Bay of Bengal generated multiple systems, including two depressions in July, one of which originated as the remnants of Typhoon Wipha, triggering extreme rainfall in Kolkata and surrounding areas.
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Such systems have driven heavy spells across central India, which, as of Aug 8, has recorded 7.1% above-normal rainfall: Madhya Pradesh (73cm, +34%), Gujarat (48cm, +8%), and Chhattisgarh (67cm, normal).
Former IMD deputy director-general Y E A Raj says that before satellites, ocean observations relied on merchant ship logs under IMD's Voluntary Observing Fleet and periodic research vessel missions. 'Satellite-based remote sensing provides indirect data through algorithms,' says Raj.
'For accurate forecasting, actualinsitu measurements from the ocean are essential.'
How do the buoys work?
Drifting buoys measure parameters such as surface current, atmospheric pressure, sea surface temperature, wind speed and direction, and transmit real-time data via satellite from wherever currents carry them
This mobility is especially valuable during the monsoon, when thick cloud cover hampers satellite remote sensing
The data not only validates satellite estimates but also helps detect and predict developing circulation patterns before they intensify near the coast
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