NASA issues alarming warning: 'City killer' asteroid could strike Moon in 2032, threatening Earth's satellites
A potentially catastrophic
asteroid
, dubbed a 'city killer', is on a collision course with the Moon, and scientists warn the impact could have dangerous ripple effects for
Earth
. The asteroid, named 2024 YR4, no longer poses a direct threat to our planet, but
NASA
has identified a 4.3% chance of it striking the lunar surface on December 22, 2032. If it hits, the resulting explosion could eject around 10,000 tonnes of debris from the
Moon
into space, with Earth's gravity potentially pulling a significant portion of it into orbit, putting vital satellites and infrastructure at serious risk.
NASA simulations reveal asteroid may trigger historic lunar impact
According to simulations by Dr. Paul Wiegert of the University of Western Ontario, the asteroid, measuring 60 metres in diameter, could crash into the Moon at speeds exceeding 29,000 mph. The impact would likely create a crater 0.6 miles wide, making it the largest lunar collision in over 5,000 years. Though the Moon would absorb the direct hit, the concern lies in the debris that would be hurled into space from the blast.
Earth may be in the line of fire
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Dr. Wiegert's team estimates that between 10% and 30% of the ejected lunar material, ranging from 0.1 to 10 millimetres in size, could be funneled toward Earth by its gravitational pull. While seemingly small, these high-speed fragments could cause major disruption by damaging or disabling satellites. 'We were a little bit surprised at the possibility of there being a substantial amount of material at the Earth,' Dr. Wiegert told New Scientist.
A decade's worth of satellite damage in days
The simulations show that this space shrapnel could increase particle impact rates by 10 to 1,000 times above normal levels, potentially causing satellite failures across multiple orbits. Dr. Wiegert warns that systems like SpaceX's Starlink and other satellite constellations could suffer 'hundreds to thousands' of micro-impacts. This could result in widespread communication blackouts and GPS malfunctions.
Risks to lunar missions and astronaut safety
The threat isn't limited to Earth. NASA's upcoming Lunar Gateway space station and Artemis lunar missions could also be in harm's way. Rovers, landers, and even astronauts on or near the Moon could be exposed to debris travelling at lethal speeds. A 1mm particle could damage solar cells or pierce space suits, while larger fragments up to 10mm could breach spacecraft interiors.
A coordinated space response needed
Professor Mark Burchell of the University of Kent emphasised the severity of multiple satellite failures occurring at once. 'A lot of satellites failing at once is worse than occasional failures spread over a decade,' he said, noting that simultaneous outages would stretch resources and emergency response systems. Preventive strategies and shielding technologies may become urgent priorities in the coming years.
Although the risk of impact is currently calculated at 4.3%, NASA and other international agencies are continuing to monitor asteroid 2024 YR4 closely. Emergency observations by the James Webb Space Telescope initially helped rule out an Earth-bound strike, but as new data comes in, the trajectory toward the Moon will be reassessed. Scientists agree that while the event is far from certain, preparing for its potential consequences is critical.
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