Russian Crude Flows Hold Near Four-Month High While Putin Stalls
(Bloomberg) -- Russia's oil exports remained near a four-month high ahead of talks between President Vladimir Putin and US counterpart Donald Trump aimed at bringing a halt to the war in Ukraine.
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Crude flows from all Russian ports in the four weeks to March 16 were little changed at 3.37 million barrels a day, near the highest since the period to Nov. 10.
The US is pressing Russia to sign up to a 30-day ceasefire that Ukraine has said it is ready to accept. While Putin has said Moscow is willing to consider a truce in principle, he has insisted on a number of conditions before he'll commit to any halt to the invasion that he launched in February 2022.
European leaders worry that President Trump may concede too much on Ukraine's behalf in a direct exchange with Putin. Advisers to the president are considering lifting or tweaking Russia sanctions, including a cap on oil export prices, if there's progress in the talks with Moscow, according to people familiar with the matter.
Meanwhile, Washington has tightened sanctions on Russia ahead of the call by allowing the expiry of a license covering payments for energy to Russian banks that were still permitted to receive US dollars. And Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this month that the US will not hesitate to go 'all in' on sanctions on Russian energy if it helps lead to a ceasefire.
Delivery Difficulties and Covert Transfers
Still, there are initial signs that difficulties in discharging some Russian cargoes may be easing.
Three tankers hauling crude from Murmansk are signaling destinations in India. While the ships themselves haven't been sanctioned by the US, they have been blacklisted by the UK and the European Union, and the cargoes spent part of their journey on US-sanctioned shuttle tankers and passed through a sanctioned floating storage unit. It remains to be seen whether the cargoes will be accepted at India's ports, where they are due to arrive toward the end of the month.
In the Pacific, cargoes of crude from the two Sakhalin projects continue to be transferred from sanctioned shuttles onto other ships in Nakhodka Bay for onward delivery to China. Even so, there have been some lengthy delays in offloading cargoes.
A supertanker that took about 2 million barrels of Sokol crude through such transfers in the first 10 days of February finally discharged its cargo at the Chinese port of Huangdao. The delivery took seven weeks from initial loading at De Kastri, a trip that was typically completed in seven days before sanctions.
The Zaliv Vostok shuttle tanker was anchored full for two weeks off the Sakhalin island loading terminal before departing for Hong Kong. The Galaxy, which departed the same export facility in early February, has been anchored off Hong Kong for the past three weeks.
About 4.2 million barrels of Russia's Pacific crude is on tankers that have been idle for at least seven days, that's down from 7.7 million barrels two weeks ago.
Crude Shipments
A total of 32 tankers loaded 24.15 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to March 16, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume was down slightly from 24.39 million barrels on the same number of ships the previous week.
Crude flows in the seven days to March 16 were little changed at about 3.45 million barrels a day. A week-on-week drop of 30,000 barrels a day is well within the margin of error.
A surge in shipments of Russian crude from the Baltic port of Primorsk was largely offset by fewer cargoes from Ust-Luga.
Less volatile four-week average flows were also little changed at about 3.37 million barrels a day, compared with 3.4 million in the period to March 9. On this measure, flows remained close to their highest level in four months.
One cargo of Kazakhstan's KEBCO crude was loaded during the week from Novorossiysk, with another departing Ust-Luga.
Export Value
The gross value of Moscow's exports fell by about $20 million, or 2%, to $1.42 billion in the week to March 16.
Export values of Russian Urals crude moved in opposite directions, with Baltic cargoes down by about $0.40 a barrel, while those loading in the Black Sea edged higher by about $0.10 a barrel. The price of key Pacific grade ESPO was virtually unchanged from the previous week. Delivered prices in India were down by about $0.10, all according to numbers from Argus Media.
On a four-week average basis, income edged lower in the period to March 16 to about $1.43 billion a week, down from $1.47 billion in the period to March 9.
Flows by Destination
Observed shipments to Russia's Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, were also little changed at 3.21 million barrels a day in the four weeks to March 16, keeping them 2% above the average level seen during the previous peak in October.
The figures include about 600,000 barrels a day on ships showing their destination as Port Said or the Suez Canal and another 180,000 barrels a day on vessels yet to show a destination.
Turkey is now the only short-haul market for shipments from Russia's western ports, with flows in the 28 days to March 16 slipping back to average about 160,000 barrels a day from a revised 180,000 barrels a day in the period to March 9. Turkey's biggest refiner confirmed it has halted purchases of Russian oil after earlier signaling that it would restrict them to avoid falling foul of US sanctions.
NOTES
This story forms part of a weekly series tracking shipments of crude from Russian export terminals and the gross value of those flows. The next update will be on Tuesday, March 25.
All figures exclude cargoes identified as Kazakhstan's KEBCO grade. Those are shipments made by KazTransoil JSC that transit Russia for export through Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga and are not subject to European Union sanctions or a price cap. The Kazakh barrels are blended with crude of Russian origin to create a uniform export stream. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan has rebranded its cargoes to distinguish them from those shipped by Russian companies.
Bloomberg classifies ship-to-ship transfers as clandestine if automated position signals appear to be switched off or falsified — a tactic known as spoofing — to hide the two vessels involved coming together to make the cargo switch.
Vessel-tracking data are cross-checked against port agent reports as well as flows and ship movements reported by other information providers including Kpler and Vortexa Ltd.
If you are reading this story on the Bloomberg terminal, click for a link to a PDF file of four-week average flows from Russia to key destinations.
--With assistance from Sherry Su.
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