Champions League final picks, odds: Inter and PSG's four most overlooked scoring threats

New York Times

26-05-2025

For more stories like this, click here to follow The Athletic's sports betting section and have them added to your feed.
It's important to remember as we await the Champions League final that football is a weird, wild sport. When it comes to the likely goalscorers who could emerge in Munich, names like Ousmane Dembélé and Lautaro Martínez will undoubtedly dominate the conversation. Yet this journey for Paris Saint-Germain and Internazionale has seen several surprising players chip in with crucial goals.
Advertisement
As time ticked away and all hope seemed lost for Inter in the second leg of their Champions League semi-final showdown against Barcelona, 37-year-old centre-back Francesco Acerbi scored his first goal of the season in extra time to draw things level. Then, not long after that, Davide Frattesi, a player who has only started 16 matches for the Italian side across all competitions this season, slotted home the winning goal.
PSG's second-leg triumph against Arsenal wasn't exactly filled with traditional goal-scorers either. Unheralded midfielder Fabián Ruiz netted the opening goal, while fullback Achraf Hakimi nailed the Gunner's coffin shut with a second in a 2-1 victory. Those two players have just 13 combined goals across all competitions this season and yet two of them came in a match that sent PSG to the final.
If players like Acerbi, Frattesi, Hakimi and Ruiz are popping up with goals in key matches, what is stopping an unexpected hero from emerging in this coming final? Let's look at four unlikely goalscorers whose odds offer the most value for your money.
If PSG have an obvious Achilles' heel, it's their set-piece defence. Not only did Luis Enrique's men allow the second-most goals off set-pieces in Ligue 1 this season, they had the highest percentage of goals allowed in all of France. Inter, meanwhile, led Serie A in goals scored via set-pieces. Unstoppable force meets a movable object.
At 6-foot-4, Bisseck will be the player to watch whenever Inter have a chance to attack the box off a dead-ball situation. The big German will tower over a PSG starting XI built on small, technical players rather than aerial giants. What's even more intriguing is that Bisseck averages nearly a shot per match (0.95 to be exact) despite occupying a central defender role for the Italian side.
Advertisement
It seems weird to say this, but Bisseck can almost be expected to get a shot off at some point during the match. With PSG's set-piece problems, it might be worth a bet that it goes in.
With all the attacking accolades his counterpart Hakimi receives, it's easy to forget that there's another PSG fullback capable of scoring goals. If you're looking for a long shot, Mendes has some sneaky solid attacking numbers working in his favour. The Portuguese left-back isn't exactly Lamine Yamal, but does average 1.00 shots per match worth 0.12 expected goals (xG) per attempt.
That latter figure is quite interesting as it puts him ahead of Hakimi's 0.08 mark. The Moroccan international shoots more often, but because of the greater quality of Mendes' shots, those two have virtually the same chance of scoring in a given match per their non-penalty xG marks.
Yet given his reputation, the odds for Hakimi to find the back of the net are down to nearly 13/2. With much lower expectations to produce something spectacular, Mendes has managed to see his odds come in at nearly double.
They have done it again.
Paris Saint-Germain make it look easy as they double their lead on the night — this time Nuno Mendes converting at the end of a counter-attack.#AVLPSG | #UCL
🎥 @primevideosport pic.twitter.com/67FxpLWBsQ
— The Athletic | Football (@TheAthleticFC) April 15, 2025
At first glance, the Turkish midfielder averages a relatively robust 1.96 shots per 90 minutes. That's by far the most of any player on this list. Unfortunately for Çalhanoğlu, those attempts on goal aren't exactly what you'd deem high-quality. Çalhanoğlu's xG total per shot is just a measly 0.03, meaning there's roughly a three per cent chance of the ball finding the back of the net anytime he shoots. If that's all the 31-year-old had going for him, I wouldn't include him on this list.
Advertisement
The real reason Çalhanoğlu is worth a look at 7/1 is that he's Inter's penalty-taker. Penalties are awarded in somewhere around 21 per cent of all football matches. If Inter land one of those penalty decisions, it assures a nice payout, as spot-kicks are converted almost 80 per cent of the time.
While you may quibble with the value or whether a team's primary penalty-taker should make this list, you can't argue with Çalhanoğlu being the most fascinating player to back. That's because the seasoned midfielder will either have to convert from the spot under the immense pressure of a Champions League final or by blasting the ball into the back of the net from deep outside the box when we least expect it. Those two types of attempts exist on opposite ends of the spectrum, but either one will cash the bet.
Speaking of players who seem to be overshadowed by their teammates, the 20-year-old Portuguese midfielder also finds his way onto this list. Like most players mentioned here, you aren't counting on a high volume of shots from Neves to get the job done. The diminutive midfielder takes just 1.39 shots per 90 at a league-average conversion rate of 0.10 xG per attempt. Against a team like Inter that's happy to concede possession, there's a chance Neves sees his shot total increase in the upcoming match. But like with Bisseck and Mendes, this bet could very well come down to one shot turning into one goal.
Betting/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo of Nuno Mendes: Thibaud Moritz / Getty Images)