Canada's F-35 Nightmare

Newsweek

08-05-2025

Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
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There are "alternatives" to the U.S.-made F-35 fighter jet, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said before winning a new term in office amid a whirlwind of souring relations with Washington.
Some agree, others don't. Canada, in a marked dip in relations between the U.S. and its northern neighbor, put its planned F-35 procurement from the U.S. under review in March, although its defense ministry has been clear that it is not "canceling" the deal to receive dozens of the Lockheed Martin-made fighter jets.
Canada now faces a dilemma: Does Ottawa do away with billions of dollars of investment and all the work to prepare its air force for the U.S.-made F-35s, or does it continue with the planned purchase?
The process to extricate Canada from its F-35 commitments would be complicated, expensive and impractical, experts broadly say. But the discussions swirling around F-35s may lead Canada away from American airpower in the long term, as European-led programs to produce the upcoming generation of fighter jets gather pace.
An F-35A Lightning II fighter jet practices for an air show appearance in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, on September 6, 2019.
An F-35A Lightning II fighter jet practices for an air show appearance in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, on September 6, 2019.
Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press via AP
'Best Fighter Jet For Our Country'
The Canadian government announced at the start of 2023 that it had signed a deal worth $19 billion CAD, or roughly $13.7 billion USD in today's money, to buy 88 F-35s. The agreement was the biggest investment in Canada's air force in three decades, the defense ministry said in a statement.
"Canada is confident that the F-35 represents the best fighter jet for our country at the best price for Canadians," the government said at the time.
But the more than two years since the U.S.-Canada agreement was finalized have been turbulent. The return of President Donald Trump to the White House ushered in a moment of collective apprehension from the rest of NATO as he pursued a thaw of relations with the Kremlin, and launched a trade war with its partner in the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), a binational command vital for monitoring and sounding early alarms at any threats heading for North America.
Carney, meeting Trump in the Oval Office this week, insisted Canada will never be for sale, while the U.S. leader responded: "Never say never."
Trump has repeatedly called Canada the "51st state," a label slapped away by Ottawa. But the hint that the administration could annex Canada has lingered, albeit as an unlikely prospect.
Reports of a "kill switch" built into F-35s ran rampant earlier this year, suggesting Washington could effectively control the aircraft bought and operated by recipient countries as it pleased.
Experts and officials have downplayed these concerns but concede that the U.S. could have a noticeable impact on how well the aircraft operate, should it choose to influence software upgrades or halt access to intelligence and mission data.
NATO allies and other F-35 customers also watched on as the U.S. forced Ukraine into a corner over its dependence on the U.S., including for intelligence.
Trump's transactional-style diplomacy and events like Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's Oval Office meeting in February, became a wake-up call, said retired Lieutenant General Yvan Blondin, who served as the commander of Canada's air force from 2012 until 2015 and has pressed for a long, hard look at Canada's F-35 order.
"If this is happening to Ukraine," he told Newsweek, "what is the value of the agreement we have with NATO? What is the value of the agreement Canada has with NORAD?"
The Case For F-35s
Simply put, there are no real fifth-generation alternatives for Western or partner militaries, to the F-35. While there are plenty of choices for fourth-generation jets, and upgraded versions known as 4.5 generation aircraft, all of the eggs for the most advanced generation of fighter aircraft are in the F-35 basket.
"There's no better military option," Blondin said.
Canada is expected to receive its first deliveries of F-35s next year but will have poured significant investment into putting the vast infrastructure in place in time for their arrival.
There are a host of other problems that Canada would court if it pulled out of the deal, from making it harder to work seamlessly with its allies to risking the wrath of Trump.
There is a pressing need for Canada to replace its moribund CF-18 fleet that cannot wait, experts say. Canada's Hornet aircraft have "been desperately in need of replacement for more than a decade," said Justin Bronk, a research fellow for airpower and military technology at the U.K.-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank.
"The Canadian fighter force can't wait for another fighter procurement process," Bronk told Newsweek. "They just can't wait."
Other F-35 nations operating the jets in Europe have reassured one another they are still committed to the fifth-generation fighter jet, a central European official involved in defense planning told Newsweek.
Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans said in March it was in the "interest of all" for the F-35 to succeed, while British Armed Forces Minister Luke Pollard insisted the U.K. "maintains the freedom of action to operate the F-35 Lightning at a time and place of our choosing."
The Pentagon had not signaled any intention that the U.S. would restrict the use of partner nations' F-35s, the central European official said.
The Case Against F-35s
One school of thought suggests that Canada could supplement a handful of F-35s with a raft of fourth-generation fighters, like the Eurofighter Typhoon or French-made Rafale.
French President Emmanuel Macron appeared to allude to this in remarks earlier this year. "Those who buy the F-35, we must offer them the Rafale," he said.
Some analysts say a handful of F-35s could do enough to enhance a fleet of less advanced aircraft. Carney has signaled that Canada is on the hook for 16 of the 88 F-35s.
But fifth-generation jets are really needed to tackle the most sophisticated air defense systems wielded by an enemy, said Andrew Curtis, a retired air commodore in the U.K.'s Royal Air Force (RAF)—something a Rafale or a Typhoon couldn't do nearly as well.
"Militarily, the last thing you want to be doing these days is having mixed fleets," Curtis told Newsweek. "If Canada is committed to buying 16, the chances are they'll buy all 88."
Operating just a few F-35s—rather than the full 88—would mean a massive hike in how expensive each jet is for Canada, which would still have to put in place all of the infrastructure, Bronk added. Ottawa would then have to work out how to make sure supply chains, logistics and training for entirely different types of aircraft are there, too, Bronk said.
"I suspect what they will find is that there are no good alternatives to proceeding with the F-35 procurement as planned, and that the fighter force is just unable to wait," Bronk said.
If Canada axed the majority of the on-order F-35s, it would still take the better part of a decade to build an operational fleet made up of different jets, like Sweden's Gripen, Blondin said.
Referring to canceling much of the F-35 order, Blondin added: "If you do this, you better have something else to fly with or to defend your country, because, next month, you may not have an airplane to do it."
Current and former officials, as well as industry sources, say doubts over the F-35 are generating more interest in nascent, European-led sixth-generation fighter jet programs.
There are plans to build several different sixth-generation fighters, which could slowly come into service in the mid-2030s. The U.S. has its Next Generation Air Dominance program, with its F-47 manned fighter jet, but the U.K., Italy and Japan are jointly working on the Global Combat Air Program, or GCAP, initiative currently expected to bear fruit in 2035. France, Spain and Germany are working on a separate program, although it is further behind than GCAP.
The central European official said they expected more countries to want to have a look-in at the development of next-generation aircraft, and particularly to have their domestic industry contribute to sixth-generation programs.
"Could Canada, in its desire to diversify its economy [and] diversify its defense, get onboard a six-generation program?" Blondin said.
The GCAP program, for one, has had significant interest from across the world and would not necessarily exclude late entrants to the project, but there is an acknowledgment that the more parties involved, the slower the progress will be.
It's understood the workload has already been divvied up, meaning while it's not impossible for new countries to join GCAP, it is more likely nations coming in later would be involved in other parts of sixth-generation technology, such as drones, rather than the jet itself.
But the French, German and Spanish program to develop a sixth-gen fighter and drones to go with it, known as FCAS, is likely more interesting to Canada for the time being, said Blondin.
"Can we get our industry to work into companion drones; can we get our industry involved in all of this?" Blondin added. "This is probably where Canada needs to go."
The Unique Case Of Canada
Canada's calculus around the F-35 is somewhat different from the other nations ascribed to the F-35 program.
Canada is intertwined with the U.S. under NORAD, and Ottawa is also part of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance with Washington, London, Canberra and Wellington, as well as a supplier of parts for the F-35.
The U.S. under Trump—with his comments about a 51st state—likely sees Canada as under America's protection and wouldn't impose any restrictions on how Ottawa uses F-35s to defend itself, Blondin said. Any restrictions on F-35 use would likely involve Canada's involvement abroad in a conflict the U.S. government didn't back, such as in Ukraine, Blondin said.
Curtailing Canada's F-35 use could jeopardize the Canadian role in defending North America—likely unappealing to the U.S., according to Blondin.
"At least for Canada, there's no reason to cancel," despite the short-term vulnerability for Ottawa, Blondin said. "Just buy it," using the F-35 to defend North America alongside the U.S., he added, but also look towards European, earlier-generation jets and drones for Canada's operations abroad before sixth-generation jets start appearing.