Tory councillors CAN form pacts with Reform at local elections, says Kemi Badenoch
Predictions circulating in Conservative Campaign HQ suggest that as much as 80 per cent of the 960 council seats the party gained four years ago will be wiped out in Thursday's local elections, it can be revealed.
The Tories believe they will suffer the 'loss of control in all currently Conservative-controlled local authorities', according to documents seen by the Mail.
And the 'majority of anticipated losses' will be to surging Reform UK, which is projected to pick up 500 seats.
A gloomy assessment states the upcoming elections are in a 'markedly different electoral landscape' compared with the 'exceptionally high water-mark' of 2021 when the council seats were last fought, as the party and government enjoyed a Covid vaccine bounce.
'Given the challenging nature of the national political landscape, we should be prepared for our on-the-night performance to be in line with current national polling, if not worse,' the internal Tory memo warns.
Yesterday party leader Kemi Badenoch repeated her insistence that the Tories would not enter into an official pact with Reform on a national level, despite calls among some in the party to defeat Labour by 'uniting the Right'.
But she agreed Tory councillors may end up working with their opponents in town halls where they lose overall control.
She told Sky News: 'I'm not going into any coalition whatsoever with Nigel Farage or Reform at national level. At local level, it's different . . . there might be no overall control.
'We are in coalition with Liberal Democrats, with Independents, we've been in coalition with Labour before at local government level. They have to look at who...they're going into coalition with and see how they can deliver for local people.
'What I don't want to hear is talks of stitch-ups or people planning things before the result is out. They have to do what's right for their communities.'
It comes despite Tory Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen telling the BBC: 'If at the next election, there is a number of MPs from the Tory Party and Reform that would create a significant majority, obviously there will be a conversation to create a coalition or a pact.'
Maurice Glasman, the founder of the influential Blue Labour group, said Labour 'will get its head kicked in' by Reform in the local elections.
In an interview with The Observer, he said: 'Labour must be a pro-worker, patriotic party, not talking gibberish about diversity.'
Reform is the favourite to win mayoral votes in two Red Wall Labour heartlands in East Yorkshire and Hull, and Greater Lincolnshire, as well as council seats across the country.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Guardian
an hour ago
- The Guardian
More countries added to UK's ‘deport first' scheme for foreign criminals
Foreign criminals from 15 more countries face deportation before they have a chance to appeal in an expansion of the UK government's 'deport first, appeal later' scheme. Ministers are extending the scheme, which applies in England and Wales and was restarted in 2023, to cover 23 countries including India, Bulgaria, Australia and Canada. The policy, which was introduced by the Conservatives in 2014, removes the right of foreign criminals to appeal against their conviction in the UK unless they show they are at risk of harm if they are deported to their country of origin. It is already operational in eight countries including Tanzania, Finland, Estonia and Belize. Other countries brought under the scheme by Labour ministers include Angola, Botswana, Brunei, Canada, Guyana, Indonesia, Kenya, Latvia, Lebanon, Malaysia, Uganda and Zambia. The move is part of the Labour government's efforts to step up the deportations of foreign criminals to deal with overcrowded prisons and public concerns about crime. Shabana Mahmood, the justice secretary, announced proposals on Sunday to allow foreign criminals given fixed-term sentences to be deported immediately after sentencing and barred from re-entering the UK. Those serving life sentences, such as terrorists and murderers, are exempt and will serve their full prison sentence in the UK before being considered for deportation. The policy has come under fire from two former Conservative justice secretaries who say it risks making the UK a soft touch for foreign criminals, because offenders would not be serving sentences at home. The former justice secretary Alex Chalk told the Guardian: 'I have real misgivings about this, and it could make people in Britain a magnet for crime from foreign national offenders.' He told Times Radio that 'rapists, people who commit child cruelty, aggravated burglars, knife crimers, domestic abusers' who were deported to their home countries 'would not have to spend a day in custody'. 'If you have been the victim of an appalling rape that has shattered your life, and you pluck up the courage to go to court, the jury convict this guy [and] within two weeks he's in Tirana, drinking a cocktail paid by the British taxpayer, and on TikTok laughing at his victim,' Chalk said. 'The real danger is you're giving a green light to foreign national offenders. You come to Britain, you're not going to get punished. You're thinking: the worst that happens to me is I'm released immediately and put on a plane.' He added: 'You've got to have a measure of justice so if you come to our country and commit a crime, you expect punishment. I would urge parliament to scrutinise this extremely carefully'. Robert Buckland, another former justice secretary, said Chalk was right to express concerns. 'Many victims of these crimes want justice to be served here first before deportation. Has the government taken the views of victims into consideration in all of this?' The Ministry of Justice confirmed to the Guardian that foreign offenders deported under the expansion of the 'deport first, appeal later' scheme would not necessarily face prison in their home country. After a legal challenge, the supreme court ruled in 2007 that the 'deport first, appeal later' system was unlawful because it infringed on people's right to give live evidence to their appeal. The government dealt with the court's concerns by setting up agreements with several countries for foreign criminals to give live evidence to their appeal hearings using a video link. The scheme was restarted in 2023. Yvette Cooper, the home secretary, said that 'for far too long, foreign criminals have been exploiting our immigration system, remaining in the UK for months or even years while their appeals drag on. That has to end. 'Those who commit crimes in our country cannot be allowed to manipulate the system, which is why we are restoring control and sending a clear message that our laws must be respected and will be enforced.' David Lammy, the foreign secretary, said ministers were in talks with several countries about extending the scheme. Foreign offenders make up about 12% of the prison population in England and Wales, with each prison place costing an average of £54,000 each year, according to the government. Of the new countries covered by the scheme, only Indians are in the top nationalities in the prison population. Officials said that in the year since Labour came to power in July 2024, 5,179 foreign nationals who had been convicted of crimes had been deported, a 14% increase on the year before.
Daily Mail
2 hours ago
- Daily Mail
Kemi Badenoch suggests housing asylum seekers in 'camps' instead of hotels - as figures reveal 50,000 migrants have crossed Channel since Labour came to power
Kemi Badenoch has suggested migrants should be homed in 'camps' as an alternative to hotels. Some communities feel unsafe as a result of migrant hotels, the Conservative leader said yesterday during a visit to Essex. It is expected that official figures will today show more than 50,000 migrants have crossed the Channel since Labour came to power. Speaking yesterday in Epping – which has been the centre of anti-asylum seeker hotel protests – Mrs Badenoch said: 'Is it possible for us to set up camps and police that, rather than bringing all of this hassle into communities?' She added: 'As a party, we need to also hear from the community about what you think the solutions are. We don't have all the answers; it's important that we make sure that the community is part of the problem solved.' During her visit, Mrs Badenoch warned that some communities 'don't feel safe'. Speaking about the possibility of putting asylum seekers in camps, she said: 'We need to make sure that communities like Epping are safe. 'What a lot of the parents – the mothers and even some of the children – have said to me is that they don't feel safe. 'It is unfair to impose this burden on communities... lots of people here have been talking about being harassed by a lot of people in the hotels.' Her trip to Essex followed weeks of protests at the Bell Hotel, which hosts migrants, after an asylum seeker was charged with allegedly attempting to kiss a 14-year-old girl. Mrs Badenoch said yesterday: 'Not everyone here is a genuine asylum seeker. People are arriving in our country illegally. 'That is why we have a plan to make sure that people who arrive here illegally are deported immediately. 'We need to close down that pathway to citizenship that means that lots of people get here not making any contributions, claiming welfare, claiming benefits. We also need a deterrent.' The Labour Government has previously set out its intention to close asylum hotels by the end of the Parliament. But Mrs Badenoch warned that things were likely to get worse as Labour tried to move people out of hotels and into private accommodation. Mrs Badenoch also rounded on Keir Starmer's pledge to deport foreign criminals, pointing out that he tried to stop flights when the Tories were in power. She questioned Labour's plans to remove foreign offenders from the UK, saying the Prime Minister had previously condemned the practice. Labour has announced plans to deport foreign criminals as soon as they are sentenced, and before they can appeal, to free up much-needed space in prisons. She said: 'When we were deporting criminals, Keir Starmer was writing letters trying to stop our deportations, so I'll believe it when I see it. This is the sort of stuff they should have been doing on day one. The fact that they tried to stop deportations before means I don't really believe it. 'The Government has released 26,000 prisoners since they came to power, released them early, there are now more criminals on our streets, that's what I'm really worried about.' In 2020, Sir Keir, then a shadow minister, wrote to then prime minister Boris Johnson calling for charter flights from the UK to Jamaica to be suspended. He co-signed the letter saying he had 'grave concern' over the Home Office plans to deport 50 people to Jamaica by charter flight on February 11, 2020.
Daily Mail
3 hours ago
- Daily Mail
MATT GOODWIN: White working-class children have never been fashionable enough to warrant the attention of today's Left
Even a broken clock, as the proverb goes, is right twice a day. Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson proved that nugget of old English wisdom this week, when she admitted that white, working-class British students are in danger of being 'written off' by the rest of society. That is something most people in the country already know to be true. She might have gone further still and pointed out the glaring truth that it is white, working-class boys in particular who are being written off, even before they sit their GCSEs. But recognising the gender gap might have been a reality too far for a Labour Cabinet minister, in a Government that has shown a worrying obsession with woke identity politics. For the first time, the Government is expected to publish data on the number of white, working-class pupils excluded from school – a figure that has risen sharply since the pandemic. Promised analysis of that data, using enhanced AI software, could reveal how much worse these children fare, compared with those from other classes and ethnic backgrounds. We can already guess the answer. White boys from poorer and broken homes do badly in comparison with just about every other group. Fewer than 19 per cent of white children who qualify for free school meals, for example, achieve a Grade 5 (equivalent to C+ at O-level) in their maths and English GCSEs. By contrast, the overall average for all state pupils is more than 45 per cent – a depressingly low statistic, to be sure, but more than double the pass rate for white, working-class pupils. For me, as the son of a white, working-class single mother, who grew up in a household where money was always short, this feels personal. Phillipson tries to simplify the problem, by tying it to low attendance at school. 'Children with good attendance have twice the odds of achieving strong GCSE results compared to their peers who miss just ten more school days,' she said. But raising attendance rates will not be nearly enough. The truth is that white, working-class children have never been fashionable enough to warrant the attention of today's Left. They are left behind by progressive establishments that show far more interest in helping minorities. By conceding even a part of that statement is true, Phillipson will win no friends in the Labour Party because it contradicts the Left's great lie – that Britain is an 'institutionally racist' society in which sinister 'power structures' are holding back minorities while the white majority pushes ahead. The figures disprove that. As pupils queue up to collect their A-level results this week, 62 per cent of black children are expected to progress to higher education – a leap from 44 per cent just two decades ago. That's a laudable success story. Yet it is not matched among white, working-class children. According to statistics from the Department for Education, just 40 per cent of them will be going to university. That's lower than any other group: among mixed-race students, the figure is 48 per cent; for Asian students, it's more than 65 per cent; and among the Chinese community it's an exceptional 81 per cent. The same patterns hold true for Oxbridge and the prestigious Russell Group universities. Poor, white teenagers lag behind every time. Often, only children from traveller, Roma and gipsy families do worse. In many cases, children from the white, working-class have fallen behind those who are 'looked after' in council care and those who speak English as a second language. Despite the Education Secretary's invervention this week, Labour has persisted with the fashionable narrative that it is children from immigrant backgrounds who are being suppressed. This is worse than lazy – it is deeply dishonest. As Peter Edwards, emeritus professor of chemistry at Oxford University, said in 2022: 'White, working-class young males are now the truly disadvantaged group in Britain. In this age of levelling up, how can this be allowed to happen? 'What we are seeing is a terrible waste of talent on an enormous scale. This appalling situation also sows the seeds of social unrest.' In 2021, I worked with the House of Commons education committee to explore the deeper reasons behind this. Our report pointed to myriad factors: persistent deprivation that has cascaded over multiple generations; a historic failure of governments on both the Left and Right to invest seriously in levelling up communities away from London, Oxford and Cambridge; a tendency among white, working-class parents not to see education as a pressing priority for their children; a lack of strong social networks in their declining towns; and a failure by politicians to address these disproportionately low rates of participation seriously. Even before Covid lockdowns disrupted education for an entire generation, researchers at the think-tank Neon highlighted this. In 2019, they analysed university records and found that more than half of English universities took 5 per cent or fewer of their admissions from poor, white backgrounds. At Oxford, the figure was just 3 per cent, and at Cambridge 2 per cent. They also found a yawning gender divide, with young white women from working-class homes far more likely to apply to university than their brothers and boyfriends. At the same time, universities were expending considerable efforts to increase their intake of students from other backgrounds, while falling over themselves to remove statues and 'decolonise' reading lists. Any suggestion that the same energy and resources ought to be devoted to initiatives for students from the white working-class met seething opposition. In 2018, the rapper Stormzy provided scholarships for black students to study at Cambridge. But the following year, when philanthropist Sir Bryan Thwaites offered scholarships to help under-privileged white children into private schools, he was turned down due to fears his generosity might be seen as racial discrimination. I'm one of the fortunate few who beat the odds. My roots are solidly working-class. My grandfather worked in a steel factory in Salford for most of his life. One memory that sums up my schooldays is waiting at the gates every afternoon for my mum to come dashing round the corner, after finishing her shift at the local NHS trust. By the time I reached the sixth-form at my all-boys' secondary school, I was working two jobs to help pay the bills. One of these was at a fast-food restaurant, where the manager was keen to take me on full-time. There was pressure on me to do a management training course – which would have meant abandoning my A-levels – so that I could start to earn proper money. Turning that job offer down meant some serious soul-searching – and more financial sacrifices by my endlessly supportive mother. I really do understand how hard it is for many children from white, working-class families to go on to university. But Labour ministers don't understand, even when they get the right answer by accident, like Bridget Phillipson this week. They continue to see boys from poor, white families as the problem – like the teenage killer in the Netflix drama Adolescence, filled with misogynistic anger and destructive hatred. In the Britain of Two-Tier Keir, the white working-class makes up the lower layer. And disadvantaged boys are right at the bottom.
