Why the NBA's tanking debate is about more than just losing games
On March 30, 2018, Marc Gasol came out cooking. The Memphis Grizzlies' 7-foot center was matched up against that season's eventual Defensive Player of the Year in the Utah Jazz's Rudy Gobert, but that barely slowed him down. Gasol made 11 of 12 shots, including going 6-of-7 from 3, and scored 28 points in 23 minutes through the first three quarters.
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And that was the end of the night.
Gasol was healthy but didn't play the fourth quarter of that game. The Grizzlies ended up losing 107-97 to take Memphis' record to 21-55. I was the Grizzlies' vice president of basketball operations at the time, so I'm intimately familiar with what happened that night. There were good reasons for it, which we'll get to in a minute, because I think it's more complex than you might suspect. (While we're here: Gasol wanted to play and wasn't shy about telling us.)
Anyway, I'm reminded of this particular game every time I see the Toronto Raptors restrict the minutes of star forward Scottie Barnes this spring. He's played fewer than 30 minutes six times in the last nine games, despite being fully healthy, and topped out at just 33. The Raptors have pulled other starters in multiple fourth quarters; in what is perhaps a related story, Toronto is in a tight race for NBA Draft positioning with the Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers.
The Raptors aren't the only example; Utah All-Star forward Lauri Markkanen played 28, 19, 26 and 24 minutes in the four games he's played since Feb. 22. Only five of those 97 minutes came in fourth quarters. Toronto and Utah played each other in that stretch, and the fourth-quarter box score from that game on March 14 is its own bit, a sort of silent monument to quiet quitting. In a close game, the two All-Stars (Barnes and Markkanen) combined to play just 2:09 of the fourth, while Orlando Robinson and Johnny Juzang led their respective sides in minutes. The teams also pulled their best guards (Collin Sexton and Immanuel Quickley) after 2:09 of the fourth as well; game respects game, I guess.
It's easy to point to cases such as these and blurt out 'TANKING!' Certainly, incentives remain in the system for teams to reverse-engineer their place in the standings to maximize their draft pick. Those incentives undoubtedly strengthen in a year like 2018, which was one of the strongest drafts in recent memory, or in one like 2025, with a clear prized prospect at the top of the draft.
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But there's another factor that gets lost when people just point to tanking. Yes, despite the league's recent efforts, incentives remain for teams to lose to maximize the value of their draft pick. But the other angle gets back to my Gasol story and the one with Barnes. You see, it's not just that there is an incentive for losing. It's also that there is no incentive for winning.
Here's what I mean: Let's suppose there was no draft at all. Tanking, then, would be irrelevant. How much would these teams' behaviors have changed? Less than you think perhaps.
For instance, would the Grizzlies have had any more motivation to play Gasol in that meaningless game in Utah? At the time he was 33 years old, one year removed from a serious foot injury and still signed to a max contract with two years left to run. Why on earth would the Grizzlies put that asset at risk in a meaningless game?
Thus, he was on a 24-minute restriction that night; I forget every detail from the other contests that spring, but you can tell from his game log that other late-March games had similar restraints, and Gasol didn't play a back-to-back after the All-Star break. Again, you can point to tanking — Memphis ended up tied for the league's second-worst record and landed the fourth pick in the draft — but that leaves the other part of this question unanswered: How much would really have been different if there were no draft at all?
That takes us back to Toronto, Utah and the other teams in similar straits this spring. Is Toronto really supposed to put Barnes at risk in games that don't matter when it owes him five years and $225 million after this one? Should Utah be forced to put its remaining $196 million investment in Markkannen on the line chasing win No. 17 next Monday in Charlotte? Compared to that, a $100,000 fine for sitting him out is a pittance. For that matter, should the Hornets feel compelled to put LaMelo Ball's ankles in the line of fire when they play the Raptors and Jazz twice in four days soon?
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I think the answers to those questions are pretty clear, and the draft doesn't bear very heavily on them. Asking a team to put meaningful players at risk in meaningless games is inherently a contradiction, regardless of whether there is a draft pick cherry on top of this particular sundae.
We've already seen it in cases where teams are going nowhere but also don't have control of their pick; they still follow the similar formula of giving minutes to developmental players who can benefit from them and shutting down older players who stand to lose more than they gain from playing.
This, then, hints at the next potential step for the league. Between flattening the lottery odds and adding a Play-In Tournament that effectively pushes competitive impulses further down the standings table, the NBA has done about as well as it can do when it comes to disincentivizing the most abject forms of tanking. Nonetheless, as our Eric Koreen noted, March basketball still sucks in the NBA, especially if you root for one of the seven teams guaranteed to be golfing on April 14.
We've done about all we can to prevent teams from actively prioritizing losing, but that's not the same as incentivizing them to pursue winning. To that end, various structures are possible, each of which has its pros and cons, and my aim isn't to litigate those proposals here. But as I watch the Jazz and Raptors handle their most valuable players, I'm reminded of what our thought process was with Gasol. (Mike Conley, Memphis' other expensive star at the time, was already out for the year.)
Sure, getting a high draft pick was nice (the Grizzlies landed a future All-Star in Jaren Jackson Jr.). But getting to the finish line with a max-contract veteran in one piece was just as consequential; the game result was a distant second in our goals behind Gasol not re-breaking his foot. Thus, playing Gasol only 23:04 that night in Utah might seem like draft-focused tanking, but in reality, the draft was a minor concern. Absent any draft considerations at all, it still was probably 23:04 too many.
Changing that part of the equation — to not just disincentivize tanking but actively incentivize winning, for even the worst teams — is the only way to lift March basketball to something approaching what we get in November. It's a distinction that hasn't received nearly enough attention.
The Suns suddenly reintroduced their second-round pick to the rotation in mid-March, and he played 44 minutes in Phoenix's win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday. Ighodaro often switched out against guards while also having to deal with the Cavs' formidable frontcourt, as the Suns posted an unexpected 123-112 win over a full-strength Cavs squad. While he only scored seven points, the 6-foot-10 big man from Marquette has a skill set that makes him useful without needing to rack up big point totals.
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In particular, Ighodaro offers two skills in high demand at the center position: switchable defense and short-roll passing. For a team that has spent the year toggling among various atrocious centers, the belated discovery of Ighodaro's existence has seemed particularly impactful. His ability to slide his feet and hang with smaller players allows for much greater scheme variety, up to and including having him switch onto players like Darius Garland.
The Suns only give up 106.9 points per 100 possessions with Ighodaro on the floor this year, compared to 118.3 when he doesn't play. That is, by far, the biggest defensive impact of any Suns player who has received meaningful playing time this season. While Ighodaro is not a true rim protector and requires help on the boards (just a 12.5 percent rebound rate), he's so good at preventing opponents from getting high-percentage shots in the first place that his team wins on the exchange.
At the offensive end, meanwhile, Ighodaro is a helpful short-roll distributor when opponents double-team Devin Booker or Kevin Durant because he can advance the ball with his handle, reliably spots the open man and delivers the rock. He's not exactly tearing up the league as a scorer, but Ighodaro averages nearly two assists for every turnover, and even when his plays don't produce an immediate bucket, he keeps the offense moving by rarely holding the ball.
If there's a next step for Ighodaro, it's that it would help if he did score a bit more. Ighodaro has a nice floater game that he can use to great effect as a short-roller, but he struggles to operate against length in the paint and has a penchant for shying away from the rim, either to pull up from floater range or pass out of the shot entirely.
For example, would you please dunk this?
Nonetheless, the Suns seem to have found something recently with Ighodaro, fellow rookie Ryan Dunn (wahoowa!) and two-way player Collin Gillespie joining the mix, winning key recent games against the Kings, Cavs and Bulls. Phoenix will need more of it in its ongoing attempt to sort of salvage the season, as the Suns' remaining schedule is the league's toughest and they're in the midst of a chase for the Western Conference's final Play-In spot. Unexpectedly, however, the 40th pick in last year's draft is having an impact on the race.
While everyone else lives and dies with the NCAA Tournament, NBA scouts have kept at least one eye on the NIT.
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That tournament also had games this past week, most notably those involving Yaxel Lendeborg's Alabama-Birmingham squad. The senior power forward has been under the radar much of the year, but his last five games have made him hard to ignore. In that span, he's recorded five straight double-doubles while also averaging 5.3 assists and 2.8 steals; in three of the five games, he didn't have a turnover.
Lendeborg lifted UAB into the quarterfinals of the NIT on Sunday with 22 points, 11 boards and seven assists in a road win against a quality Santa Clara team, but scouts probably paid more attention to his matchup against another mid-major sleeper, St. Joseph's Rasheer Fleming (highlighted here) in Tuesday's first round. Lendeborg struggled shooting in that game but ripped down 17 boards and had three steals and two blocks in the Blazers' road win.
In terms of the next level, Lendeborg's ability to handle the ball for his size is his differentiating skill. Combined with his rebounding prowess, it makes him very threatening in grab-and-go situations; he's a savant at tipping balls to himself, can pass on the move and usually makes the right decision in transition. Watch this pass, for instance.
Better yet, get a load of this minuscule window, one that he likely would have slipped the ball into if his intended recipient hadn't tripped over a defender's feet.
Lendeborg isn't quite as facile in the half court because of his iffy shooting and still-developing craft as a finisher. He's a 34.3 percent career 3-point shooter, and his pull-up game inside the arc can be quite an adventure. Closer to the rim, Lendeborg has a strong frame and a decent vertical and draws a lot of fouls. He does some nifty Euro steps off his left foot, but he doesn't explode off the floor or show tremendous craft against length. Still, his switchability, defensive event creation and transition speed combine to generate some easy buckets.
Lendeborg is still figuring things out as his age belies his playing experience. Although he will be 23 this fall, he only has two years of major college experience after starting at Arizona Western junior college.
That start also adds another wrinkle: Lendeborg is eligible for a sixth college season should he choose to return. The name, image and likeness math on this is tempting, as some Power Five schools could offer him a better paycheck than he'd get as a late draft pick.
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Nonetheless, the numbers are eye-popping. Lendeborg's age, competition level in the American Athletic Conference and shooting questions all conspire to keep him out of the draft's upper crust. However, his intersection of size and handle to go with a late-bloomer story would seemingly put him in play anywhere outside the first 20 picks.
Nobody talked about Lendeborg for most of the year, but that's rapidly changing. If he isn't tempted by NIL riches, he could be a fast riser at the NBA Draft Combine.
(Top photo of Scottie Barnes: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
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