Oil hits five-month high after US hits key Iranian nuclear sites
SINGAPORE - Oil prices jumped on Monday, local time, to their highest since January as Washington's weekend move to join Israel in attacking Iran's nuclear facilities stoked supply worries.
Brent crude futures rose $1.88 or 2.44% at $78.89 a barrel as of 1122 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude advanced $1.87 or 2.53% at $75.71.
Both contracts jumped by more than 3% earlier in the session to $81.40 and $78.40, respectively, five-month highs, before giving up some gains.
The rise in prices came after President Donald Trump said he had "obliterated" Iran's main nuclear sites in strikes over the weekend, joining an Israeli assault in an escalation of conflict in the Middle East as Tehran vowed to defend itself.
Iran is OPEC's third-largest crude producer.
Market participants expect further price gains amid mounting fears that an Iranian retaliation may include a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global crude supply flows.
Iran's Press TV reported that the Iranian parliament approved a measure to close the strait. Iran has in the past threatened to close the strait but has never followed through on the move.
"The risks of damage to oil infrastructure ... have multiplied," said Sparta Commodities senior analyst June Goh.
Although there are alternative pipeline routes out of the region, there will still be crude volumes that cannot be fully exported out if the Strait of Hormuz becomes inaccessible. Shippers will increasingly stay out of the region, she added.
Brent has risen 13% since the conflict began on June 13, while WTI has gained around 10%.
The current geopolitical risk premium is unlikely to last without tangible supply disruptions, analysts said.
Meanwhile, the unwinding of some of the long positions accumulated following a recent price rally could cap an upside to oil prices, Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a market commentary on Sunday.
(Reporting by Siyi Liu in Singapore; Editing by Himani Sarkar)
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Boston Globe
36 minutes ago
- Boston Globe
Shifting views and misdirection: How Trump decided to strike Iran
It was almost entirely a deception. Trump had all but made up his mind to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities, and the military preparations were well underway for the complex attack. Less than 30 hours after Leavitt relayed his statement, he would give the order for an assault that put the United States in the middle of the latest conflict to break out in one of the world's most volatile regions. Get Starting Point A guide through the most important stories of the morning, delivered Monday through Friday. Enter Email Sign Up Trump's 'two weeks' statement was just one aspect of a broader effort at political and military misdirection that took place over eight chaotic days, from the first Israeli strikes against Iran to the moment when a fleet of B-2 stealth bombers took off from Missouri for the first U.S. military strikes inside Iran since that country's theocratic revolution in 1979. 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So, he told the world, 'Stay tuned!' These public pronouncements generated angst at the Pentagon and U.S. Central Command, where military planners began to worry that Trump was giving Iran too much warning about an impending strike. They built their own deception into the attack plan: a second group of B-2 bombers that would leave Missouri and head west over the Pacific Ocean in a way that flight trackers would be able to monitor Saturday. That left a misimpression, for many observers and presumably Iran, about the timing and path of the attack, which would come from another direction entirely. The strike plan was largely in place when Trump issued his Thursday statement about how he might take up to two weeks to decide to go to war with Iran. Refueling tankers and fighter jets had been moved into position, and the military was working on providing additional protection for U.S. forces stationed in the region. 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He marveled to advisers about what he said was a brilliant Israeli military operation, which involved a series of precision strikes that killed key figures in Iran's military leadership and blasted away strategic weapons sites. Trump took calls on his cellphone from reporters and began hailing the operation as 'excellent' and 'very successful' and hinting that he had much more to do with it than people realized. Later that day, Trump asked an ally how the Israeli strikes were 'playing.' He said that 'everyone' was telling him he needed to get more involved, including potentially dropping 30,000-pound GBU-57 bombs on Fordo, the Iranian uranium-enrichment facility buried underneath a mountain south of Tehran. The next day, the president told another adviser he was leaning toward using those 'bunker buster' bombs on Fordo, while taking pride in both the bomb's destructive power and the fact that the United States is the only country that has the bomb in its arsenal. The adviser left the conversation convinced that Trump had already decided to bomb Iran's nuclear sites. Advertisement At the same time, the president's team was closely monitoring how their most prominent supporters were reacting on social media and on television to the prospect of the United States joining the war in a more visible way. They paid close attention to the statements of Tucker Carlson, the influential podcaster and former Fox News host, who was vehemently opposed to the United States joining Israel in taking on Iran. Trump became infuriated by some of Carlson's commentary and started complaining about him publicly and privately. Political advisers to Trump had been swapping notes on various public and private polls examining the popularity of military action against Iran, noting that American support for an operation depended in part on how pollsters asked the question. 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Advertisement Moreover, he said, if the United States were to strike Iran, the goal should be to decimate its nuclear facilities, not to bring down its government. The 'biggest threat to Opsec' By then, a small group of top military officials at the Pentagon and U.S. Central Command in Tampa, Florida, had already begun refining attack plans on the Fordo facility and other Iranian nuclear sites that military planners had drawn up years ago. The planning was led by Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, the Centcom commander, and Gen. Dan Caine, the chair of the Joint Chiefs. B-2 stealth bombers, based at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, are the only warplanes capable of delivering the GBU-57 bombs without detection by Iranian radar. B-2 bomber pilots have done extensive rehearsals for extended-range missions like the one before them -- crossing the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, refueling multiple times before syncing up with fighter jets for the final flight leg into Iran. 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'We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran,' he posted on Truth Social, adding, 'We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there -- We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now.' He demanded, in all-caps, 'UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!' By this point, several people in the anti-interventionist camp of Trump's advisers realized they most likely could not prevent the president from hitting the Iranian nuclear facilities. So, they turned their focus on trying to ensure the American war did not spiral into an expansive 'regime change' war. That day, June 17, Vice President JD Vance posted a long series of posts on social media that many within the anti-interventionist camp interpreted as him seeding the ground for a potential U.S. military operation and preemptively defending the president's likely decision. 'He may decide he needs to take further action to end Iranian enrichment. 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He was infuriated when The Wall Street Journal reported that he had already given a green light to putting the pieces of the operation in place but had not given the final order. On Thursday, Trump was joined for lunch at the White House by Bannon, one of the most prominent critics of U.S. involvement in Israel's war with Iran. Some wishful thinkers in the anti-interventionist camp interpreted the meeting as a sign that Trump was getting cold feet. Leavitt reinforced that sentiment when she delivered Trump's statement, not long after Bannon arrived at the White House, indicating that he had given himself up to two weeks to make a decision, a time frame he often invoked for decisions on complex issues when he had no clear plan. But Trump had already dictated Leavitt's statement before he met with Bannon. It was a calculated misdirection intended to buy some breathing room for the president while suggesting that no attack was imminent. 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'It's not politically correct to use the term, 'Regime Change,'' he wrote, 'but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn't there be a Regime change???' This article originally appeared in
CNN
37 minutes ago
- CNN
Trump floats Iran ‘regime change' even as the true impact of US strikes is far from clear
President Donald Trump's onslaught of Iran's nuclear plants was the most violent moment of his two terms and America's 46-year showdown with the Islamic Republic. Flush with the spoils of battle, he already seems to be toying with the idea of regime change. But the reality of whether Trump truly destroyed Iran's nuclear ambitions and the consequences of his aggression are far more ambiguous than his bullish claims of victory would suggest. The president insisted Sunday that the damage to three nuclear sites struck by the US was 'monumental.' He posted on social media that 'the hits were hard and accurate.' Round-the-world raids by B-2 stealth bombers out of Missouri using never-before-deployed 'bunker-busting' bombs demonstrated the unique reach of the US military and its continued potency despite Trump administration chaos at the Pentagon. If Trump's order eradicated Iran's nuclear program, or set it back years or decades, he could claim a legacy achievement that lifted an existential threat to Israel. If Iranian power is neutered, the Middle East could be transformed. The president effectively tried to bomb Iran to the negotiating table and to an effective surrender of its capacity to enrich uranium. But it's a long shot whether humiliation by an enemy Tehran regards as the 'Great Satan' will convince it to sue for peace. And questions are mounting over whether the strikes over the weekend truly 'obliterated' all of Iran's nuclear infrastructure as Trump claims. And the president has still not shared the intelligence that convinced him that Iran was 'a few weeks away' from building a nuclear weapon — even though US spy agencies assessed it had not yet decided to do so. It is now vital to establish whether Iran salvaged any enriched nuclear material or even relocated it ahead of the US strikes. If it did, Trump's bid to eliminate its path to a weapon could instead catalyze a race by Tehran to build a rudimentary device that would leave the world a far more dangerous place. 'Anybody who says that they have any idea whatsoever about whether these raids did anything other than create a big boom and a lot of dust has no idea what they're talking about,' Rep. Jim Himes, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, told CNN's Kasie Hunt on 'State of the Union' on Sunday. In the meantime, everyone is waiting on Iran's military revenge, with the Middle East on alert for new turmoil — and Americans potentially in the firing line. Tehran's decisions will be fateful. A slide into yet another open-ended Middle East war is not inevitable. But history shows that American attempts to reshape the region almost always fail to capitalize on 'shock and awe' openings. Amir-Saeid Iravani, the Islamic Republic's envoy to the United Nations, said on Sunday that 'the timing, nature and the scale of Iran's proportionate response will be decided by its armed forces.' There's growing uncertainty, meanwhile, about the president's intentions. Vice President JD Vance insisted on Sunday that the US wasn't at war with Iran or seeking to topple its leaders. But Trump on Sunday evening raised the possibility of mission creep, asking on Truth Social, 'Why wouldn't there be a Regime change???' That was likely music to the ears of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The situation inside Iran's leadership remains opaque. The country was already in a period of transition as the long rule of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei enters its sunset. But Israel's dismantling of Iran's regional power by crushing its proxies in Gaza and Lebanon, and now America's blow against its nuclear aspirations, could foment unpredictable political forces. It's unlikely that any loosening of the clerical regime's control would result in the more benign leadership that the US and Israel would prefer, and which millions of more moderate Iranians crave. Instead, political upheaval could bring even greater domestic repression. And any signs of state collapse in a nation twice the size of Iraq could send shockwaves throughout the region and across the globe. America's latest plunge back into the Middle East is already having profound political reverberations back home. Top Republicans heaped praise on what they see as Trump's strength, clarity and daring. But despite his deep bond with his base, some influential right-wing influencers fear he could be driving the MAGA movement into a quagmire. And a president with autocratic instincts who is severely straining the rule of law and the Constitution and is using his power to punish his perceived enemies has now led the US into a potential new conflict on a hunch without making any case to the public and after ignoring Congress's power to declare war. This cascade of uncertainties in the aftermath of Trump's strikes underline that he gave up total control of this new crisis as soon as US bunker busters dropped on the Fordow nuclear plant. The resolution of this clash with Iran — a seat of civilization laced with historic, sectarian, religious and political fault lines and a resentment of perceived US colonialism — is unlikely to be as clean as the decision to send a squadron of B-2 bombers around the globe to enforce the impulses of an American strongman. The next move probably belongs to Iran. Depending on the state of its military after days of pounding Israeli airstrikes, Tehran has options. It could target vast US military bases and assets in the region. It might close the Strait of Hormuz to spark a global energy crisis. It could send missiles into the oil fields of US allies. It might try to stage terror attacks against US interests in the region, or even in the American homeland. Each of these options comes with high risks. It may be counterproductive, for instance, for Tehran to close shipping lanes that would slow its own oil exports to China and Russia, its nominal allies. But each of these steps could also draw Trump deeper into a direct confrontation with Iran and a full-scale war — showing the limits of his ability to control a cycle of escalation. Vance told ABC News' 'This Week' that if Iran gave up its nuclear program 'peacefully' then it would find a willing partner in the US, but if it hit back against US troops, it would be met with 'overwhelming force.' But a president who vowed to avoid new wars sounds increasingly warlike. In his social media post announcing the strikes on Saturday, Trump called on Iran to negotiate with the US over the complete end of its nuclear program. But his subsequent address to the nation was far more belligerent, warning, 'There will be either peace, or there will be tragedy for Iran, far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days. Remember, there are many targets left.' The possibility of deepening hostilities therefore seems acute. This is not least because a regime that defined itself for nearly half a century through antipathy to the US may perceive an existential need to show strength. Still, a resort to all-out warfare by Iran could offer an opening for the US or Israel to move toward a regime decapitation strategy — despite the grave risks of turning Iran into a failed state. The exact state of Iran's remaining nuclear capability will be a top issue in the coming days. Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was noticeably far less bullish in immediate assessments of the results of Saturday's raids than Trump or Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. New battle damage assessments carried out by surveillance and other forms of intelligence could decide whether Trump may order follow-up raids that could further exacerbate tensions. Early independent examinations of the aftermath of the strikes suggest that the damage to one of the three key sites — Isfahan, which was targeted by US cruise missiles — was restricted to aboveground structures. Unlike the other two Iranian facilities targeted in the operation, B-2 bombers did not drop massive 'bunker-buster' bombs on the Isfahan facility, multiple sources told CNN. 'This is an incomplete strike,' said Jeffrey Lewis, a weapons expert and professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies who has closely reviewed commercial satellite imagery of the strike sites. 'If this is all there is, here's what left: the entire stockpile of 60% uranium, which was stored at Isfahan in tunnels that are untouched.' Himes warned that Iran could have moved some enriched uranium out of Fordow before the strikes. 'You have got the possibility — and I will stress possibility here — that there's a lot of highly enriched uranium sitting underneath a hornet-mad regime that has decided that the only way we're going to forestall this in the future is to actually sprint towards a nuclear weapon,' Himes said. If that is the case, Trump will have created a threat to the US and Israel that will rumble on for years to come. 'I think the more interesting thing other than retaliation, is reconstitution,' Richard Haass, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, told CNN's Fareed Zakaria. 'What lessons did the Iranians draw? It's quite possible they will decide that this never would have happened had they had nuclear weapons. So I think it's possible their retaliation is relatively modest. And what they really want to do is put themselves on a trajectory where some years down the road, when there's another crisis, they're in a different position.' 'So, this may not be quite as neat as we think. This could actually play out not just over weeks and months, but over many years.' Washington, meanwhile, is already buzzing with a familiar spectacle of officials, experts and pundits all making logical cases for why Trump was right to act, why the mission succeeded and how Iran could best serve its interests with a restrained response. But as the long list of lost US wars in the late 20th century and 21st century attests, things are almost never so simple.
Bloomberg
an hour ago
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Spain Wins Exemption From NATO's 5% Defense Spending Goal
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