Red Wings NHL Draft scenarios: The steal, the trade-up, the chalk

New York Times

a day ago

The NHL Draft is always good for a few surprises.
Last year, the right permutation of picks led to exciting young defenseman Zeev Buium still being available at No. 12, where Minnesota picked him. In 2023, the uncertainty around thrilling Russian winger Matvei Michkov allowed Philadelphia to snag him at No. 7. We've seen exciting young players such as Cole Caufield, Zach Benson and Jonathan Lekkerimaki hang around into the teens.
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The point is: No matter how many mock drafts you make (or read), there's always something that can throw it all out the window. And in a year where the Detroit Red Wings once again moved down in the draft lottery, dropping to Pick 13, they could use that kind of break.
With enough talent in the top half of the first round to find a good fit, the Red Wings should get a good player regardless. It helps that their range is particularly rich in skilled wingers, which is one of their top needs.
But with a little luck in front of them, and perhaps some creativity, could Detroit benefit from a draft-day surprise? That's what this article is meant to explore, looking at three different scenarios: the (broadly) expected outcome, one way the Red Wings could get a steal, and one path that could entice them to trade up.
1. New York Islanders: Matthew Schaefer, LHD, Erie (OHL)
2. San Jose Sharks: Michael Misa, C, Saginaw (OHL)
3. Chicago Blackhawks: Anton Frondell, C, Djurgårdens (Allsvenskan)
4. Utah Mammoth: Caleb Desnoyers, C, Moncton (QMJHL)
5. Nashville Predators: James Hagens, C, Boston College (NCAA)
6. Philadelphia Flyers: Porter Martone, RW, Brampton (OHL)
7. Boston Bruins: Jake O'Brien, C, Brantford (OHL)
8. Seattle Kraken: Roger McQueen, C, Brandon (WHL)
9. Buffalo Sabres: Brady Martin, C, Soo (OHL)
10. Anaheim Ducks: Radim Mrtka, RHD, Seattle (WHL)
11. Pittsburgh Penguins: Kashawn Aitcheson, LHD, Barrie (OHL)
12. New York Rangers: Jackson Smith, LHD, Tri-City (WHL)
For the chalk scenario here, I mainly used the results of The Athletic's latest staff mock draft — with one exception. As much as the Rangers could use a young center in their pipeline, I think the better value at 12 would be with Smith, a 6-foot-4 left-handed defenseman with real upside who should go right in this range. Defense is still a premium position worthy of the 12th pick, and New York could use more young blueliners, especially if it trades K'Andre Miller.
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Odds are, not every center listed above will stick at the position in the NHL, but they all at least have a chance to. Seeing so many centers and defensemen going in the top 12 wouldn't be a surprise with how hard it is to find top players at those positions outside the top of the draft.
But because Detroit has done well to stockpile centers and blueliners with its own early picks in recent years, the Red Wings are well suited to take a winger who slips as the premium positions fly off the board.
The pick: Victor Eklund, LW, Djurgårdens (Allsvenskan)
Earlier in this draft cycle, Eklund still being on the board at 13 would have qualified as a steal — and you could still argue that it is, with the tenacious Swede rated the eighth-best player in the class by both Corey Pronman and Scott Wheeler. He's a speedy winger with great goal-scoring ability, which he's proven translates against men.
You can't quite call it a perfect fit. Eklund is a smaller winger (5-11, 169 pounds) and a right-hand shot, and Detroit is arguably over-leveraged on both traits. But it's hard to argue with Eklund's talent, and his competitiveness (and track record in a European pro league) certainly tracks with the Red Wings' M.O.
Perhaps more importantly, Eklund's speed, skill and scoring ability would add more of a dynamic element to Detroit's system. This would be a great chance to pounce on a potential top-line forward.
If Smith makes it to 13, it would be a good debate between his upside as a potential top-four, two-way defenseman and Eklund — or even one of the other top forwards, such as Carter Bear, Justin Carbonneau, Cole Reschny and Lynden Lakovic. But if things go as expected in the top 12, I keep coming back to Eklund as the choice.
1. Islanders: Schaefer
2. San Jose: Misa
3. Chicago: Frondell
4. Utah: Desnoyers
5. Nashville: O'Brien
6. Philadelphia: Martin
7. Boston: Hagens
8. Seattle: Martone
9. Buffalo: Mrtka
10. Anaheim: Eklund
11. Pittsburgh: Smith
12. Rangers: Aitcheson
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There's one obvious name missing from the group of 12 above Detroit here.
McQueen was confident enough in his recovery from a back injury to participate in fitness testing at the NHL Combine, which is a good sign. He discussed the issue being 'past' him, and if team doctors agree with that assessment, it's very hard to envision a 6-5 center with his skill set lasting to the 13th pick on draft day.
But he's still an 18-year-old who has already experienced a back injury, and that's something teams will have to weigh when it comes time to actually pick him. With lots of other centers and defensemen high in the draft, maybe that introduces just enough doubt to sway some decisions against him in that No. 6-12 range — leaving a rare young talent on the board.
The pick: McQueen
Of course, Detroit's own doctors would need to be on board here, which is not a given, especially because this scenario requires some hesitation from other teams that would presumably have the same information.
But McQueen's upside as a skilled, big-bodied center who can skate is immense. That would make this a risk worth taking for the Red Wings to get the kind of talent the draft lottery has seldom afforded them a swing at. Pronman compared him to Quinton Byfield, who went second in the 2020 draft.
He would also give the Red Wings a ton of future options with their center group, which already includes Dylan Larkin, Marco Kasper and Nate Danielson. Larkin is soon to be 29, and if McQueen hits, it would take some pressure off of Kasper to grow into a No. 1 center as Larkin ages. It would also open up the possibility of moving someone to the wing down the line, while still having enviable center depth.
That said, if teams are confident in McQueen's back, it's hard to imagine this one coming to fruition. It would take a lot of things going Detroit's way. But you never know for sure, especially when there are injury questions this high in a draft.
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1. Islanders: Schaefer
2. San Jose: Misa
3. Chicago: Frondell
4. Utah: Desnoyers
5. Nashville: Martin
6. Philadelphia: Hagens
7. Boston: McQueen
8. Seattle: Mrtka
9. Buffalo: Martone
Let's get this out of the way first: Teams picking in the top 10 rarely trade down. That being said, we did see Buffalo move back a few spots (from 11 to 14) last year, at the cost of a second-round pick, so it's also not impossible.
In this scenario, there's a heavy run on centers in the top seven, with the Kraken deviating from the trend and taking Mrtka. O'Brien and Martone are highly talented forwards whose skill and size could fit the still-building Kraken, but Seattle has taken forwards with its first-round pick in all four drafts in franchise history. At some point, you'd think the Kraken would opt for a blueliner, and maybe that happens this year.
If it does, Buffalo would be sitting pretty at No. 9, getting to pick between two big playmakers in Martone and O'Brien. O'Brien has the center factor going for him, but the potential physicality from Martone would be something the Sabres' highly skilled prospect pool lacks. So in this scenario, they take the 6-3 winger.
Anaheim could very easily take whichever of the two falls to 10, of course. But you can argue the Ducks are pretty well-stocked with both playmakers and responsible centers and could use more of an up-tempo scorer to complement Leo Carlsson, Mason McTavish, Beckett Sennecke, Trevor Zegras and Cutter Gauthier in their young core (though Gauthier is certainly a scorer). The Ducks also have a pair of extremely promising young LHD in Jackson Lacombe and Pavel Mintyukov, which means that side of the blue line isn't a glaring need.
Could that put a trade-up in play? In that scenario, Anaheim would drop back a few spots, add an asset on the right side of the blue line via the trade and target a scoring winger such as Eklund, Carbonneau, Bear or Lakovic with Pick 13.
The deal: Detroit trades Pick 13 and RHD Anton Johansson for Pick 10
The pick: O'Brien
Parting with Johansson could sting for Detroit. Watching him in the AHL playoffs (which he jumped right into, having spent the whole year in the SHL), I was actually more impressed by the 6-4 Swede than I was by Grand Rapids Griffins regulars William Wallinder and Shai Buium, both high second-round picks in recent years. He's a smooth skater, he plays with an edge, and he has some offense in his game, too.
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So while Johansson was a fourth-round pick in 2022, I'd put his value in line with a second-rounder, and he's closer to the NHL than a pick would be. If I'm a little off on that valuation, Detroit also has two back-to-back third-rounders (75 and 76) and could also include one of those if needed — though I'd already be hesitant to part with Johansson, who has some serious tools.
The draw, though, would be in O'Brien's promise as a 6-2 center with plenty of offensive upside. O'Brien nearly put up 100 points in the OHL this season, finishing at 98 (32 goals, 66 assists) in 66 games. That was good for eighth in the league, and he won't turn 18 until next week.
Adding a playmaker of his caliber would be worth the big swing to get him, even if, again, his right-hand shot isn't quite ideal for the Red Wings' forward makeup. Whether Detroit wants to use him as a center or on the wing, the appeal is his skill and brain in a bigger body. That should allow him to create more in the middle of the ice, a key need for the Red Wings.
It's not a likely scenario. But if you're looking for something to dream on as the June calendar drags on, this would be one path to a draft-day splash.
(Top photo of Jake O'Brien: Dennis Pajot / Getty Images)