logo

UK employers group says tax hike has hit hiring hard

Zawyaa day ago

LONDON: Almost one third of small and medium-sized British employers have made staff redundant or are thinking about job cuts as a direct result of the increase in their social security bills, an industry group said on Thursday.
The British Chambers of Commerce said 13% of more than 570 member firms it surveyed had cut jobs and 19% were actively considering such a move as result of April's hike in employers' National Insurance Contributions ordered by finance minister Rachel Reeves.
"We were unprepared for the huge burden placed upon us, and it led many of us to rethink our growth plans," BCC Director General Shevaun Haviland said ahead of the group's annual conference. "As a result, our business confidence measures have fallen to their lowest levels since 2022."
The Bank of England said last week that employers' hiring plans were "mildly negative" due to higher labour costs with the tax hike the biggest factor. The main response was to cut pay awards followed by headcount reduction and other measures.
Reeves has said she does not plan further tax increases on the scale of last year's 40 billion pound ($54 billion) rise. But many economists say she might be forced into fresh revenue-raising measures later this year to remain on course to meet her own budget rules. ($1 = 0.7344 pounds) (Writing by William Schomberg; editing by David Milliken)

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

BoE echoes central banks' long bond sensitivity: Mike Dolan
BoE echoes central banks' long bond sensitivity: Mike Dolan

Zawya

time42 minutes ago

  • Zawya

BoE echoes central banks' long bond sensitivity: Mike Dolan

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.) LONDON - Central banks sense that their once-bloated balance sheets are closing in on the fabled 'steady state', meaning they can concentrate solely on setting interest rates rather than fretting about the monetary effects of adding or shedding bonds. A curious event at the Bank of England this week was the latest sign of G4 sensitivity to shaky investor demand for so-called long-duration government debt, suggesting policymakers are going to start scrutinizing the effects of their balance sheet activity more closely. In a parliamentary testimony on Tuesday, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said the upcoming annual review of the BoE's balance sheet rundown - or 'quantitative tightening' policy - would be "interesting" this year in light of the sharply steeper UK yield curve. What's more, he added that central bank reserves in the financial system could reach the top end of estimates from banks for their 'neutral' level during the second half of 2026. Bailey's deputy Dave Ramsden - who oversees the annual QT review - later concurred with the governor without giving details away, adding "movements at the long end of the curve were a particular focus for us more generally in the Bank." Partly drawn into the slipstream of sharp moves in long-term U.S. Treasuries, as Donald Trump returned to the White House this year and upended trade and diplomatic policies, long-dated British gilt yields have been on edge all year too. Even after two quarter-point cuts in BoE policy rates since January, 30-year UK government borrowing costs are 15 basis points higher on the year - and were almost 50bp higher on the year at one point during a turbulent April when they hit their highest in 27 years. The result has been a near doubling of the yield curve gap between 2- and 30-year gilts - the steepest curve in almost eight years. BALKING AT LONG BONDS Britain has its own home-grown debt worries, memories of a fiscal shock three years ago and limited borrowing room under the current Labour government's own rules at a time of mounting spending demands from defence to health. There's also a complicated dance between the BoE's bond holdings, how they are funded with interest on commercial bank reserves and the extent to which government is on the hook for losses incurred. But the nod and wink from the BoE's top brass this week also reflects some concern across major economies about growing indigestion among investment funds for very long-dated debt even as short-term interest rates fall. Worries about rising public debt and long-term uncertainty about inflation add to the concerns and even changing demographics may be altering the appetite of pension funds for the sort of ultra-long dated debt they once demanded. Japan's experience has been the spotlight too, with poor auctions of its super-long government bonds lately forcing the Bank of Japan and finance ministry to rethink both the amount of debt it sells at this maturity as well as how much the BOJ will buy and hold. And the U.S. Federal Reserve has already slowed its QT process to a trickle, with little more than a token monthly runoff now underway. BOE PECULIARITIES The Bank of England is unusual, however, in that its QT plan involves both active sales of gilts as well as allowing the bond pile to just mature and roll off in a way other major central banks wholly rely on. The big question is whether BoE wariness of yield curve swings forces it to reconsider QT altogether or just play around with the range of maturities it's shedding. A report from Bank of America this month said it expects the BoE to slow the overall bond runoff to 60 billion pounds over the year from October from the 100 billion pace in the current year. As that would include about 49 billion pounds of maturing debt, active sales would then drop to little over 10 billion. Keeping QT unchanged at this year's pace would mean about half of the drop in 2025/2026 would need to come from active selling. Even though the BoE continues to say that its QT process has a relatively modest impact on the market, some of its policymakers and the BofA team doubt that and suspect it is actually tightening lending conditions in a way that dampens the effects of its main policy rate cuts. As the BoE's QT process runs down commercial bank reserves and potentially squeezes lending capacity eventually, the Bank has set up special securities repurchases facilities and urged banks to use them more to manage their liquidity needs. But BoE rate-setter Catherine Mann said this month that the central bank needs to pay closer attention to the impact of QT. "Now that the MPC is reducing restrictiveness, I believe that we need to consider the differing effects of our policies on different parts of the yield curve and their effects on monetary policy transmission as a more salient issue," she said. BofA's team tend to agree, adding the fiscal impact of slowing QT would be 'negligible'. "We are sceptical whether QT is really operating in the background, not least in light of long-end Gilt price action developments as of late," the BofA report said. "At a time when the BoE is trying to ease monetary conditions by cutting rates, QT could be diluting the pass-through of cuts by tightening monetary conditions at the long end." Whether the effects are enough to see the end of active gilt sales on the horizon is another question and the debate about where the 'steady state' is for a balance sheet that is still some 130 billion pounds of gilts above pre-pandemic levels will likely build too. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters (by Mike Dolan; editing by Shri Navaratnam)

UK government faces fresh questions over legality of F-35 exports to Israel
UK government faces fresh questions over legality of F-35 exports to Israel

Middle East Eye

time13 hours ago

  • Middle East Eye

UK government faces fresh questions over legality of F-35 exports to Israel

The chair of the UK parliament's international development committee has raised major concerns over the government's legal justification for continuing to send British-made F-35 components to Israel. In a letter sent to business secretary Jonathan Reynolds on Thursday, Labour MP Sarah Champion said that she was troubled by the government's decision to allow the export of the parts indirectly to Israel, given its own assessment that there were clear risks of serious violations of international humanitarian law by Israel in Gaza. "I remain concerned that there is a real risk that weapon components, manufactured in the UK, could be used in attacks, including those on aid workers or humanitarian infrastructure," she wrote. "Adherence to the rule of law, including international law, is fundamental if we are to take a position of leadership on the world stage. We must respect, and ensure respect for [international humanitarian law]." Last September, the government suspended around 30 arms export licences after a review ordered by the newly elected Labour government found that Israel might have used British-made weapons in serious violations of international law in Gaza. New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters UK-made F-35 components sent to the F-35 programme's global pool were exempt over concerns that there was no way to stop sending British parts destined for Israel without disrupting the entire global fleet and endangering international peace and security. Court documents in a legal challenge to the government's arms exports to Israel show that senior British officials talked to their American counterparts shortly before the announced suspensions to try to stop UK parts from going to the pool, but concluded that there were too many obstacles. One main issue was that, under the governing MOU, the F-35 programme is overseen by an executive steering board, which is chaired by the US and comprises representatives of participating states, and makes decisions by consensus. All participant states would have to agree for components being used in Israeli F-35s to be limited, and logistics that are not currently used would have to be put in place to separate out components destined for Israel, the court documents outlined. However, Champion questioned whether the exemption of the UK-made F-35 parts from the suspension was compatible with the UK's legal obligations, particularly under the Arms Trade Treaty and the Genocide Convention. She has asked Reynolds 10 questions focused on these issues, including what legal authority the government has relied upon for the exemption. She also asked whether the government accepted that the duty to prevent genocide in Gaza had been triggered. If so, what steps "is the UK taking to employ 'all means' and do 'all in their power' to prevent genocide, as far as possible?" she wrote. Similar concerns have been raised by the UK-based Global Legal Action Network (Glan) and the Palestinian human rights organisation Al-Haq, which have challenged the UK government's decision in the High Court. They have also been raised by business and trade committee chair Liam Byrne in a series of letters sent to Foreign Minister Stephen Doughty over the past seven months. Most recently, Byrne has proposed that Doughty and other Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence ministers appear before his committee before the summer recess to answer questions, among other issues, about government data which shows that licences for the export to Israel of $169m worth of military equipment were approved in the three months following the September 2024 supensions. Champion's questions come as the UK government announced this week plans to purchase 12 new F-35 jets that can carry US nuclear weapons. She has asked Reynolds for answers by 11 July.

Bank of England's Bailey notes jobs market slowdown but says inflation outlook uncertain
Bank of England's Bailey notes jobs market slowdown but says inflation outlook uncertain

Zawya

time17 hours ago

  • Zawya

Bank of England's Bailey notes jobs market slowdown but says inflation outlook uncertain

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Thursday that a recent pickup in inflation created more uncertainty about the medium-term picture for price growth but he also noted signs of a slowdown in the jobs market in Britain. "In recent months, the evidence that slack is opening up has strengthened, especially in the labour market," Bailey said in a speech at a conference held by the British Chambers of Commerce. "But there remain uncertainties around the overall balance between supply and demand in the economy as well as the remaining inflation persistence in the system." (Reporting by William Schomberg; editing by Suban Abdulla)

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store