Small band of independents offer Liberals and Labor a path to power in Tasmania

The Guardian

5 days ago

The independents who hold Tasmania's political future in their hands have indicated they could support a premier from either major party.
The incumbent Liberals claimed 14 seats at Saturday's snap election, ahead of Labor on nine.
But the result leaves both parties short of the 18-seat mark required for majority government.
The Liberal leader, Jeremy Rockliff, has begun courting crossbench support in his bid to return as premier, while Labor's Dean Winter has left the door ajar to governing with the five-seat Greens plus independents.
It could take more than a week for three in-doubt seats to be confirmed via preferences and any minority agreements might not be arranged until after the numbers are settled.
Rockliff has said he would go to the governor after the count finished to ask for his government to be recommissioned.
'I do have a mandate, given we've got the largest number of seats,' he told reporters on Monday.
'For Dean Winter to govern, he'll need to do a deal with the Greens for which he does not have a mandate from the Tasmanian people.'
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Rockliff said he has had good conversations with all members of the crossbench and would have more talks in the next week or two.
Winter, who has also reached out to the independents, has said he would not do a deal with the Greens to govern but would accept their votes of confidence and supply.
There are three re-elected independents – Kristie Johnston, Craig Garland and David O'Byrne – while Peter George has been voted in for the first time.
One of the undecided seats could go to the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party, expanding the crossbench.
Johnston, Garland and George are opposed to the Liberal- and Labor-backed $945m AFL stadium.
Garland and George also oppose commercial salmon farming, an industry supported by the two major parties.
Garland, who scraped into parliament at the 2024 election, more than doubled his first-preference vote.
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He said he was prepared to back a Liberal or Labor premier but did not indicate whether he would seek any policy concessions.
'We're just waiting for the dust to settle and see where the numbers end up,' he said.
'There are going to be some interesting conversations, put it that way.'
George does not plan to sign any formal agreements and said he was open to Rockliff or Winter as premier.
'Let's hear what they have to say and let's hear what their plans are for rebuilding Tasmania's future,' he told the ABC.
Johnston, who did not sign a formal agreement with the previous minority Liberal government, has indicated she would take the same approach and consider issues on merit.
O'Byrne, a former Labor leader and stadium supporter, is also open to Rockliff or Winter as premier, noting all MPs needed to collaborate.
'It's not about going in with a shopping list of demands … that will be problematic,' he said.
Rockliff's proclaimed mandate 'wasn't clear cut' and it was about who could preside over a functioning parliament, O'Byrne said.