What I'm hearing ahead of the 2025 NHL Draft: Penguins trading up? Where does James Hagens land?

New York Times

6 hours ago

LOS ANGELES — It's NHL Draft Eve, so I'll cut to the chase and spare you the intro. Here's everything I've been hearing in the final hours ahead of Friday night at the Peacock Theater, plus a last-minute draft ranking tweak I'd make and some quotes and insights that I gathered over the course of this season.
There are a few names that I've been hearing a lot in recent weeks and days that I wanted to draw some attention to: Russians Daniil Prokhorov, Alexander Zharovsky and Semyon Frolov, Acadie-Bathurst Titan defenseman Will Reynolds and Czech forward Vaclav Nestrasil. There are multiple teams prepared to take Prokhorov, a 6-5 winger with secondary scoring and a nose for the dirty areas, in the first round. Zharovsky got mixed reviews coming out of Dan Milstein's Gold Star camp in Fort Lauderdale because of just how far behind the curve he is physically, but there are some that still rate him higher than people realize. I believe Prokhorov is gone in the early 20s and won't be surprised if he goes late teens. Zharovsky and Nestrasil could both go late first, and if they don't, they will be gone very early on Day 2. Frolov is viewed by some as the 1A or 1B goalie in this class to Joshua Ravensbergen. Don't be surprised if Ravensbergen slips out of the first round, either. I'm less and less convinced the Predators take him with one of their late firsts.
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Reynolds' name came a little out of nowhere in the second half. He's a big, strong, competitive D who can really skate, and while his production (16 points in 69 combined regular-season and playoff games) doesn't scream second-rounder, I believe he's going to go there now; multiple teams have him rated firmly there. It sounds like he's a couple of inches bigger than his 6-foot-2.5 listing as well. Plus, he's an August 2007 birthday, which puts him on the younger side of this class. His game translates to the NHL and what teams are now looking for in D.
'From (January) to now, he had his development trajectory skyrocket,' said one source on Reynolds.
I was already hearing a lot about the Penguins before the Rangers made the decision to transfer the No. 12 pick to them to complete the J.T. Miller trade. As I've reported, I know they'd inquired with the Blackhawks about the No. 3 pick and have been aggressive in looking into moving up. It sounds like they like both Porter Martone and James Hagens a lot. I've also heard they like Roger McQueen. I believe Martone's going top five, so they'd have to jump into the 3-5 range to grab him. I'm less sure Hagens goes top five, but I also believe the Flyers and Bruins like him at No. 6-7. So those are your scenarios. After polling scouts about McQueen, I believe he goes in the 8-10 range and could see any of the Kraken, Sabres and certainly Ducks take him (multiple people have linked McQueen and the Ducks to me). If McQueen's gone and they stand pat, the names I've heard tied to the Penguins are lefty defensemen Kashawn Aitcheson and Jackson Smith (who they both spent extra time with in Buffalo at the combine and would give them a top left-shot D prospect opposite emerging righty Harrison Brunicke) and winger Lynden Lakovic, who I think is in play starting with the Penguins. Kyle Dubas has never been shy to move back, either, so I don't think that door is shut (though they need quantity more than quality after acquiring more of the former since Dubas took over).
A little more than a year ago, Hagens set the U18 Worlds single-tournament points record with 22 points in just seven games in Finland, and entered the summer before his draft year as the front-runner to be the No. 1 pick. Now, I'm starting to get the sense he's not going to be a top-five pick. As things stand right now, I don't think the Sharks, Blackhawks or Mammoth take him at 2, 3 or 4. And while I think he makes a lot of sense for the Preds at No. 5 — and I'd take him there — they've shown a lot of interest in Martone throughout this year, and I think he's likely their selection if he's there. If Martone goes before the Preds' pick at No. 5, which is a real possibility, I could see Nashville circle back to Hagens. But the chalk version that I've got in my head right now has Hagens going No. 6 or No. 7 to the Flyers or Bruins.
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I do know there are teams that have Hagens as their target in potential trade-up scenarios, however, and the Islanders have explored trying to add a second top-five pick, presumably to take Hagens, who's from Long Island. (Those trades almost never happen, but wouldn't that be something?).
I mentioned it briefly on the pod last week, but I wanted to highlight a note on Malcolm Spence. (If you're faint of heart, maybe don't read ahead.)
I was a little surprised when Spence, who'd previously been listed at 201 pounds by NHL Central Scouting, weighed in at 190 pounds at the combine in Buffalo, and it was enough of a loss that I decided to ask around.
As it turns out, the weight loss happened after he 'split his tongue in half' earlier this year. After getting it stitched, it got infected, swelled and eventually grew a blood clot. Spence ended up in the hospital after one particularly tough bus ride home, and the hospital had to bring in a dentist and an oral surgeon to lance the growth off. He struggled to eat for a while and even had trouble breathing for a time. Though he played with a bubble cage, he lost 10 pounds, and it sounds like it impacted his season.
Spence still finished the year with a respectable 36 goals (including five shorties, second-most in the OHL) and 82 points in 74 combined regular-season and playoff games, but he moved from the front half of the first round entering the season to the back half of the first round exiting it.
He has since committed to the University of Michigan and projects to play at 215 pounds in the NHL. He also did well in his interviews at the combine, by the sounds of it. I'll be interested to see where he goes on Friday night, but I'd guess early 20s.
Every year, in the days between the release of my final draft board and the draft itself, continued conversations and video work (normally prompted by those conversations) always seem to lead me to some flip-flopping and hair-pulling about my list.
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This year, there's only one that I've kept coming back to, and it's a minor one: I think I'd move Cullen Potter down two or three spots to No. 18 or No. 19, which would move Jackson Smith and Lynden Lakovic up one spot each to No. 16 and No. 17, respectively, and maybe Cameron Reid up one to No. 18 as well.
Skating coach Jordan Trach on Roger McQueen: 'I think he has got substantially better in the last couple of years. He was always very big and awkward and had very good skills. His skating, his body just seemed to never catch up to his muscles. He always just skated like he was too weak. He catered to his own body. When you're skating, you want to load your legs, and he would always unload his legs because he wasn't strong enough to keep them going. And truth be told, I think he is still growing. I just saw him last week, and I think he's like 6-foot-6 or 6-foot-7 now, and I think he's just going to get stronger, and stronger and stronger in his skating ability. If I'm looking at my draft list, I'm so excited about a 6-foot-6, right-handed shot centreman with skill. Those guys don't come around often. There are still a lot of GMs and scouts that won't argue that fact that a big, skilled guy is better than a small, skilled guy. Everyone loads up on a little more meat on their bones for playoffs. It's a part of the game.'
A scout on Matthew Schaefer: 'I think when you see him, the first thing that pops out at you is that he's an effortless skater. The second thing that jumps out is his high IQ and his ability to make plays with and without the puck. And I think when you watch games, shift after shift and game after game, he's the best player on the ice a lot of times. And he has done that at the U17 level, he's done that at the world U18 level, he's done that at the Ivan Hlinka level, and he's just a very mature, responsible player where nothing is too big for him, no situation is too big for him offensively or defensively. It's a lot of smart, simple plays. You see a lot of highlight reel plays, but he doesn't have to do highlight reel plays to be a very effective player. People talk about it being a 19-year-old tournament and the reason you talk about it being a 19-year-old tournament is because a lot of the younger guys might be physically mature enough but they don't have that pro mentality or that of a 19-year-old world junior player where a lot of the time the simple play is more effective. Schaefer has that ability to just make smart, simple, quick plays, which is what wins you hockey games.'
A scout on Porter Martone: 'Porter brings size, a high-skill package, he's got hockey sense and good hands, and he's a big body who is always in the middle of everything. When you see Porter Martone play, he's not a great skater but he gets to where he needs to be and he's kind of a Ryan Smyth type of guy where he's always around the action, he's always around the net, he's always in the corners, pluys he's got the hand skills and the offensive creativity to be a aprt of a lot of offensive chances. I think you're looking at a pretty complete player who's got size and brings an edge to his game, so he can complement a lot of players. He can be up and down your lineup. He can be with a lot of skill players and be net-front or working the corners or he can be on the fourth line and be more physical.'
(Photos of Kyle Dubas and James Hagens: Jeff Vinnick / NHLI via Getty Images and Michael Miller / ISI Photos / Getty Images)