Will Israel's interceptors outlast Iran's missiles? The answer may shape the war
Jerusalem: Aside from a potentially game-changing US intervention that shapes the fate of Iran's nuclear program, two factors will help decide the length of the Israel-Iran war: Israel's reserve of missile interceptors and Iran's stock of long-range missiles.
Since Iran started retaliating against Israel's fire last week, Israel's world-leading air defence system has intercepted most incoming Iranian ballistic missiles, giving the Israeli air force more time to strike Iran without incurring major losses at home.
Now, as the war drags on, Israel is firing interceptors faster than it can produce them. That has raised questions within the Israeli security establishment about whether the country will run low on air defence missiles before Iran uses up its ballistic arsenal, according to eight current and former officials.
Already, Israel's military has had to conserve its use of interceptors and is giving greater priority to the defence of densely populated areas and strategic infrastructure, according to the officials. Most spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak more freely.
'No one envisaged we would be fighting on so many fronts and defending against so many rounds of ballistic missiles.'
Zohar Palti, former senior Mossad officer
Interceptors are 'not grains of rice,' said Brigadier General Ran Kochav, who commanded Israel's air defence system until 2021 and still serves in the military reserve. 'The number is finite.'
'If a missile is supposed to hit refineries in Haifa, it's clear that it's more important to intercept that missile than one that will hit the Negev desert,' Kochav said. Conserving Israel's interceptors is 'a challenge', he added. 'We can make it, but it's a challenge.'
Asked for comment on the limits of its interceptor arsenal, the Israeli military said in a brief statement that it 'is prepared and ready to handle any scenario and is operating defensively and offensively to remove threats to Israeli civilians'.
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The group Palestine Action said two members entered RAF Brize Norton on Wednesday and used electric scooters to approach the Voyager jets, which are used for air-to-air refuelling and transportation. The duo sprayed red paint into the planes' turbine engines with repurposed fire extinguishers and caused further damage with crowbars, according to the group, which released video footage appearing to show an individual approach a jet and spray paint into the engine. The activists left the base without being detained, Palestine Action said. The group said that "despite publicly condemning the Israeli government, Britain continues to send military cargo, fly spy planes over Gaza and refuel US/Israeli fighter jets". It called the UK "an active participant in the Gaza genocide and war crimes across the Middle East". Prime Minister Keir Starmer condemned the "vandalism" as "disgraceful" in a post on X. 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The group Palestine Action said two members entered RAF Brize Norton on Wednesday and used electric scooters to approach the Voyager jets, which are used for air-to-air refuelling and transportation. The duo sprayed red paint into the planes' turbine engines with repurposed fire extinguishers and caused further damage with crowbars, according to the group, which released video footage appearing to show an individual approach a jet and spray paint into the engine. The activists left the base without being detained, Palestine Action said. The group said that "despite publicly condemning the Israeli government, Britain continues to send military cargo, fly spy planes over Gaza and refuel US/Israeli fighter jets". It called the UK "an active participant in the Gaza genocide and war crimes across the Middle East". Prime Minister Keir Starmer condemned the "vandalism" as "disgraceful" in a post on X. 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Britain's defence ministry confirmed the incident, saying: "We strongly condemn this vandalism of Royal Air Force assets." Planes from Brize Norton, about 100km northwest of London, regularly fly to RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, Britain's main air base for operations in the Middle East. The UK has sent more Typhoon fighter jets and Voyager tankers to Cyprus since the Israel-Iran war started a week ago for what Starmer called "contingency support". Iran has threatened to attack US, French and British bases in the region if those countries help Israel fend off Iranian strikes. The defence ministry and police are investigating. with Reuters
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Europe to tell Iran that US open to direct talks
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The talks were due for mid-afternoon in Geneva, where an initial accord between Iran and world powers to curb its nuclear program in return for sanctions lifting was struck in 2013 before a comprehensive deal in 2015. Separate talks between Iran and the US collapsed when Israel launched what it called Operation Rising Lion against Iran's nuclear facilities and ballistic capabilities on June 12. "There is no room for negotiations with the US until Israeli aggression stops," Araqchi was quoted as saying on Iranian state TV on Friday. The E3 have in past talks with Iran suggested it keep some uranium enrichment but accept extremely strict international inspections of its nuclear activities. Trump has demanded zero enrichment and French President Emmanuel Macron appeared to echo that call on Friday, saying any new deal needed to go towards zero enrichment for Iran. 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"There is no room for negotiations with the US until Israeli aggression stops," Araqchi was quoted as saying on Iranian state TV on Friday. The E3 have in past talks with Iran suggested it keep some uranium enrichment but accept extremely strict international inspections of its nuclear activities. Trump has demanded zero enrichment and French President Emmanuel Macron appeared to echo that call on Friday, saying any new deal needed to go towards zero enrichment for Iran. The main message Europeans will pass to Araqchi is that the US has signalled readiness for direct talks, but that Iran must give a serious signal, the two European diplomats said, without defining what the signal should be. Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, has spoken to Araqchi several times since last week, sources say. While diplomats did not expect a breakthrough in Geneva, they said it was vital to engage with Iran because once the war stopped the nuclear issue would remain unresolved given that Tehran would still retain the scientific know-how. Trump has said he will decide within two weeks whether to join Israeli strikes. "A window now exists within the next two weeks to achieve a diplomatic solution," British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said. European foreign ministers will tell their Iranian counterpart that the US is open to direct talks even as it considers joining Israeli strikes intended to smash Tehran's nuclear capacity, diplomats say before a meeting in Geneva. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi would be told that Iran must send a "clear signal", two diplomats told Reuters, with pressure mounting on Tehran to agree tough curbs on its nuclear program to prevent the potential development of an atomic weapon. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke to several Western counterparts before the meeting in Switzerland, the diplomats said, indicating readiness to engage directly with Tehran. Washington did not confirm that though broadcaster CNN quoted a US official saying President Donald Trump supported diplomacy from allies that could bring Iran closer to a deal. Tehran, however, has repeatedly said it will not talk to the Trump administration until Israeli attacks end. The ministers from Britain, France and Germany, known as the E3, plus the European Union's foreign policy chief, were meeting separately on Friday before planned face-to-face talks with Araqchi. "The Iranians can't sit down with the Americans whereas we can," a European diplomat said. "We will tell them to come back to the table to discuss the nuclear issue before the worst-case scenario, while raising our concerns over its ballistic missiles, support to Russia and detention of our citizens." The talks were due for mid-afternoon in Geneva, where an initial accord between Iran and world powers to curb its nuclear program in return for sanctions lifting was struck in 2013 before a comprehensive deal in 2015. Separate talks between Iran and the US collapsed when Israel launched what it called Operation Rising Lion against Iran's nuclear facilities and ballistic capabilities on June 12. "There is no room for negotiations with the US until Israeli aggression stops," Araqchi was quoted as saying on Iranian state TV on Friday. The E3 have in past talks with Iran suggested it keep some uranium enrichment but accept extremely strict international inspections of its nuclear activities. Trump has demanded zero enrichment and French President Emmanuel Macron appeared to echo that call on Friday, saying any new deal needed to go towards zero enrichment for Iran. The main message Europeans will pass to Araqchi is that the US has signalled readiness for direct talks, but that Iran must give a serious signal, the two European diplomats said, without defining what the signal should be. Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, has spoken to Araqchi several times since last week, sources say. While diplomats did not expect a breakthrough in Geneva, they said it was vital to engage with Iran because once the war stopped the nuclear issue would remain unresolved given that Tehran would still retain the scientific know-how. Trump has said he will decide within two weeks whether to join Israeli strikes. "A window now exists within the next two weeks to achieve a diplomatic solution," British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said.
Sky News AU
2 hours ago
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Global Islamic politics expert says Israel's claims about Iranian nuclear weapon 'at odds' with intelligence reports as Netanyahu 'desperate' to involve Trump in war
An Australian global Islamic politics expert has urged the world to be "sceptical" of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claims after numerous intelligence reports concluded that Iran is not "close at all" to building a nuclear weapon. Professor Greg Barton from Deakin University told Sky News Netanyahu's strategy to close down Iran's nuclear program may not be as "clear cut and simple", as he would present it to be to President Donald Trump, in an attempt to persuade the US to join the Israeli assault. "I think that the way that Benjamin Netanyahu will sell it to Trump is that you just send in a couple of B2s over Fordow and it's done," Mr Barton told Sky News host Steve Price. "You've closed down the nuclear program and we're good. "But of course, it is not likely to be so clear cut and so simple." According to Axios, President Trump believes the US has leverage over Iran due to its bunker buster munitions – which Israel does not have – that are capable of destroying the Fordow nuclear enrichment facility that sits deep under a mountain. Mr Barton added the bunker buster bombs are unlikely to demolish Iran's nuclear program and could instead result in dangerous escalation of war in the Middle East. 'First of all, those B2 strikes with massive ordnance, penetrator bombs over Fordow, 90 metres underground, that likely wouldn't finish Iran's nuclear program,' he said. 'They'd probably scramble to take what they have left and actually move towards nuclear weapons. 'In the meantime, they're likely to strike out against US targets all around the Middle East and use their proxies to do so. 'So a very dangerous risk of escalation and a prolonged conflict.' When questioned about the validity of Netanyahu's claims about Iran's existential threat to Israel, Mr Barton said they were 'at odds' with other publicly available intelligence reports have said, including what Trump was briefed on by his own security adviser. Mr Barton highlighted Israel's remarkable capabilities at penetrating Iranian society and its defence apparatus, but noted other intelligence reports suggest 'Iran is some way off, it's not close at all' to building a nuclear weapon. 'It is possible they know something that no one else knows, but what all the other intelligence reports are saying is that Iran is some way off, it's not close at all,' he said. 'We can't know, we're sort of making a claim from Netanyahu who is desperate to involve Trump and America in this programme, and on balance you sort of want to be a bit sceptical about what he's saying for that reason.' Israel has been trading missiles with Iran since last Friday in an attempt to shut down any efforts of Tehran building an atomic weapon to wipe out the existence of the Jewish state. Netanyahu said the operations were to "strike the head of Iran's nuclear weaponisation program". White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told a media briefing on Thursday, local time, she had been asked to pass on a 'direct quote' from President Trump on the possibility of US intervention in the Israel-Iran war. 'Based on the fact that there is a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks,' she said, quoting the President. Ms Leavitt also urged sceptics of US involvement to 'trust' in President Trump's judgement, before emphasising his 'top priority' was to prevent Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon.
