Break it Down: Advisor leads gold growth at Genesis' small cap neighbour
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ABC News
20 minutes ago
- ABC News
Australia's housing market would crash if these factors aligned
An Australian property market crash may be laughable, but it's conceivable. Housing is politically sensitive because access to it influences our lives enormously. The Albanese government is attempting to ramp-up housing supply, and is offering shared equity schemes to make housing more affordable. "That's part of the issue is politically it is very difficult to introduce [new] big bang policies that may actually have some sort of impact on house prices because a lot of people are going lose out," Ben Phillips, an associate professor from ANU's Centre for Social Policy Research, says. A property price crash, of course, would make many millions of homes more affordable. But is that realistic, or even possible? Australian property prices have faced three major speed bumps over the past four decades. The share market crashed in October 1987, leading to an economic downturn, which saw the unemployment rate rise to 10.8 per cent. It hurt asset prices including property. Australia's two largest cities saw the biggest falls, with house prices falling 10 per cent in Melbourne, and roughly 9 per cent in Sydney between 1989 and 1991. In the global financial crisis of 2008, Australia's median property price fell by around 8.5 per cent over an 11-month period, according to CoreLogic. The COVID-19 pandemic, decades later, saw the unemployment rate reach 7.4 per cent in July 2020. Phillips says that "didn't really have much impact". What would likely lead to a property market correction, and potentially a crash, analysts say, is a spike in Australia's unemployment rate. The latest official data from the US shows a shock slowdown in American bosses hiring new candidates. A spike in the unemployment rate here in Australian is not inconceivable. "I think you'd need to have some sort of an event — and I don't quite know what that would be — that would lead to a lot of people losing their jobs, who are professionals and who own houses," Phillips says. Independent economist Saul Eslake has a clearer picture of what that "event" would look like. "So if, for example, Australia were to be hit by some external shock emanating, for example, from the United States or China, that prompted unemployment to rise significantly," Eslake says. Cotality's head of research, Eliza Owen, agrees. "So the unemployment rate is probably the thing that's holding [the property market] together," Owen says. "If we saw a big blowout in the unemployment rate, that's when mortgage serviceability becomes less stable, less certain. "You might have more forced sales and that would add to supply and contribute to a blowout in falling home values." While not putting any numbers around what would cause an Australian property market crash she says: "It would have to be a combination of demand shock and a large increase in unemployment." "So that probably comes from a severe economic downturn." Eslake adds that a combination of interest rate hikes and a severe cut to the migration intake would be necessary for a "demand shock" to the property market. The bottom line is that any economic or financial event would need to be deep and long-lasting, economists say, to produce a property market correction or crash. But Phillips notes that many home owners are well ahead in their mortgage repayments and have managed their finances to help ride out a financial storm. "Most people in Australia are pretty wealthy and if you're a home owner, and those are most of the people who are buying and selling houses are actually home owners — they have large amounts of equity, they've got large redraw facilities to survive during any sort of challenging financial times," he says. Phillips says this, and a chronic shortage of housing, has made Australia's housing market virtually indestructible. "And I think particularly through an environment where you've got quite low interest rates and you've got effectively a fairly fixed level of housing supply and certainly in the short term, that's probably why it's then house prices stay as strong as they have or increase increased quite strongly." Eslake argues the government and the Reserve Bank stand at the ready to respond to any economic event which poses a threat to financial markets. "I think the Reserve Bank would cut interest rates significantly," he says. In addition, he argues, the big four banks, in the event of a big endogenous economic shock, would fall over themselves to help mortgage borrowers avoid foreclosure. "Most banks will, if a mortgage customer loses his or her job, comes forward quickly enough and the bank's persuaded that there's a reasonable prospect that that person will find a job in the next six months, [the bank will] go to considerable lengths to help those customers," Eslake says. "The banks certainly don't like to have mortgagee and possession signs going up in front of their customers houses." So, is a property market crash possible? Of course. Is a correction more realistic? Yes. But you would need some combination of a drastic cut to migration, interest rate hikes, and a significant and long-term jump in white-collar unemployment with little government support. It's a tall order.
News.com.au
20 minutes ago
- News.com.au
Breathing room in household budgets, spending up in June
Australian households are finding breathing room in their budgets, with the latest data showing an increase in household spending. Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Tuesday shows spending on furnishings and household equipment, clothing, footwear and food have driven a 0.5 per cent household spending rise for June. The data shows people are making more discretionary purchases and spending more often. The 0.5 per cent bump follows a 1 per cent rise in May and is 4.8 per cent higher than June last year. 'Goods spending rose 1.3 per cent, as households spent more on food, new vehicles, and electronics,' ABS executive Robert Ewing said. 'Meanwhile, spending on services fell by 0.5 per cent after two months of growth. 'People buying more goods drove the overall rise in household spending in June.' Looking at the three months to June, discretionary spending volumes (the actual dollar value spent) rose because of a 1.8 per cent increase in recreation and cultural activities, plus a 1.6 per cent rise in cafes and restaurants. The volume increase shows people are going out for dinner less often but spending more. This discretionary bump is part of an overall spending volume increase of 0.7 per cent for the June quarter. 'Household spending volumes rose for the third consecutive quarter, reflecting a steady improvement in consumer confidence as price pressures eased over the past year,' Mr Ewing said. Western Australia was the only state or territory where spending fell. The Northern Territory, NSW and then Tasmania had the largest spending increases over the past year. In the NT, the spending increases were driven by health, transport and recreation outlays. In NSW, clothes, shoes, furnishings and food were the largest drivers.
News.com.au
27 minutes ago
- News.com.au
Who made gains in July? Here are the top ASX resources winners
Top commodities for July include gold and manganese Santa Fe Minerals takes top spot for the biggest monthly stock gain Falcon Metals and Black Canyon Resources also make the podium Gold, copper and rare earths stocks stole the resources spotlight in June with the biggest individual gainer being Santa Fe Minerals (ASX:SFM), up a whopping 739%. This is thanks to the precious metal player announcing it acquired the Eburnea gold project in Cote d'Ivoire from Turaco Gold (ASX:TCG) last month. TCG is now a $520 million explorer thanks to its bet on the land of Didier Drogba and Yaya Toure (Kolo as well), which has emerged as the premier jurisdiction for new entrants into West Africa after military coups in Mali and Burkina Faso. SFM will be itching to follow in the footsteps of Eburnea's vendor Turaco, having plenty of work on its hands at the 3.55Moz Afema gold project. Historic drilling includes 26m at 4.82g/t and 30m at 1.92g/t at different points along a 2km mineralised zone in the Satama permit. SFM, which is raising $1.2m at 5c per share, is also picking up a 65% share in the Bouake North application, 35km from Endeavour Mining's 3Moz Lafigue gold mine. Stay tuned to see if the company could follow a similar trajectory to Many Peaks Minerals (ASX:MPK), which has had similar success at Ferke project. Not to mention, gold is still sitting pretty high at US$3348.90 at the time of writing - giving explorers a nice confidence boost. Plus gold prices are tipped to go even higher by Canadian global asset manager Fidelity who believe the precious metal could be testing the US$4000/oz mark by the end of this year. This scenario could play out if the Federal Reserve begins to cut rates and the US dollar continues to decline. For ASX gold players, though, what's important is that gold soared in the first four months of this year and has remained elevated within a relatively narrow band since then, a point that has proven beneficial to the bottom lines of the producers while giving certainty to the explorers. Gold in second, manganese in third Precious metals explorer Falcon Metals (ASX:FAL) was up a respectable 216% for the month, after making a high-grade gold discovery late last week from the Blue Moon prospect on the outskirts of the Bendigo gold zone. The Bendigo region has delivered 22Moz of gold since the gold rush, including 5.2Moz at 15g/t from the Garden Gully Anticline. Mark Bennett chaired Falcon thinks Blue Moon is sitting to the north of that trend on the Eastern Limb of the anticline, with visual gold and a deep hit of 1m at 543g/t from 544.2m. And finally, Black Canyon (ASX:BCA) saw a 169% jump last month after a high-grade manganese discovery at the Wandanya project piquing the interest of fund managers like Lowell Resources Fund (ASX:LRT) chief investment officer John Forwood. Forwood says Wandanya has some similarities to Woodie Woodie, which sits just 80km to the north. But it has some key differences. One of those is the high strip ratio the vintage Woodie Woodie mine now operates at. 'Whereas Wandanya in the grade could be similar, the strip ratio is almost definitely going to be very low. It could be less than five to one, so mining costs should be pretty attractive,' he told Stockhead. Grades from drilling at Wandanya have clocked in at between 29-31% Mn, well above those seen in the Balfour field. There's also a high grade hematite iron ore zone sitting above the manganese horizon, with Hole WDRC057 from the most recent RC drill program there striking an intersection of 12m at 60.1% Fe from 5m including 7m at 64.2% Fe from 7m. BCA said the results supported the logging of high-grade iron mineralisation over hundreds of metres of strike, remaining open to the north. 'It could have some pretty attractive economics, particularly as it looks like there is a high-grade iron ore zone which might fall partly within the same pit as the high-grade manganese zone,' Forwood said. 'Your waste-stripping ratio comes right down if some of that non-manganese material is actually high-grade iron ore and you might end up with an extremely low operating cost after byproduct credits.' Most popular commodities in July: Here are the top 50 ASX resources stocks for the month of July Code Company Price % Month Market Cap SFM Santa Fe Minerals 0.26 739% $18,932,885 FAL Falcon Metals 0.49 216% $87,003,080 BCA Black Canyon Limited 0.3225 169% $42,883,795 ASN Anson Resources Ltd 0.12 161% $166,408,385 ALR Altair Minerals 0.005 150% $21,483,721 PLG Pearl Gull Iron 0.015 150% $3,068,127 DY6 DY6 Metals 0.26 136% $23,759,499 VMM Viridis Mining 1.11 136% $95,704,572 PEC Perpetual Resources 0.027 125% $23,577,162 CMG Critical Mineral Group 0.18 125% $16,297,985 CUF Cufe Ltd 0.011 120% $14,812,324 G50 G50 Corp Ltd 0.29 115% $46,573,321 I88 Infini Resources Ltd 0.17 105% $8,902,903 AS2 Askari Metalsl 0.011 100% $4,445,878 QXR Qx Resources Limited 0.004 100% $5,241,315 AOA Ausmon Resorces 0.002 100% $2,622,427 CR9 Corellares 0.004 100% $4,029,079 PUA Peak Minerals Ltd 0.063 97% $183,161,241 EVG Evion Group NL 0.033 94% $14,352,359 AUG Augustus Minerals 0.042 91% $7,137,750 BHM Broken Hill Mines 0.4 90% $43,037,158 BDG Black Dragon Gold 0.086 87% $27,345,081 LAT Latitude 66 Limited 0.043 87% $6,166,230 RRR Revolver Resources 0.057 84% $15,747,633 PGD Peregrine Gold 0.275 83% $23,333,129 PFE Pantera Lithium 0.02 82% $9,475,674 FRS Forrestania Resources 0.145 81% $45,098,252 AR3 Austrare 0.092 77% $19,538,420 LRD Lord Resources 0.03 76% $4,650,061 FRB Firebird Metals 0.13 73% $18,506,982 LSR Lodestar Minerals 0.019 73% $7,554,219 BMM Bayan Mining and Minerals 0.06 71% $6,552,324 SVY Stavely Minerals Ltd 0.017 70% $9,248,716 GBE Globe Metals &Mining 0.044 69% $30,564,732 KCC Kincora Copper 0.067 68% $15,756,731 ALB Albion Resources 0.092 67% $12,137,867 PXX Polarx Limited 0.01 67% $23,755,010 CRR Critical Resources 0.005 67% $13,850,427 CZN Corazon Ltd 0.0025 67% $2,961,431 ODY Odyssey Gold Ltd 0.03 67% $33,125,801 IXR Ionic Rare Earths 0.02 67% $112,707,150 LLM Loyal Metals Ltd 0.215 65% $22,227,359 MEG Megado Minerals Ltd 0.038 65% $24,535,964 JAL Jameson Resources 0.084 65% $59,564,847 AM7 Arcadia Minerals 0.028 65% $3,286,736 AGY Argosy Minerals Ltd 0.028 65% $43,005,786 LMG Latrobe Magnesium 0.014 65% $36,844,806 BPM BPM Minerals 0.041 64% $3,579,313 PVW PVW Res Ltd 0.018 64% $3,580,286 SRL Sunrise 1.31 63% $153,199,733 Small cap standouts Anson Resources (ASX:ASN) Last month the company shipped two tonnes of lithium-rich Green River brine to POSCO in South Korea as part of due diligence for a planned demonstration plant. The brine, which is iron-free and processed using a non-chemical method, will be tested for lithium extraction efficiency to help shape initial engineering and cost estimates. Results will be used by POSCO to prepare initial engineering design and cost estimates for the planned demonstration plant to be built at the Green River project in the US. This testwork is a part of the due diligence process POSCO is undertaking to determine an investment into a demonstration plant at Green River which is expected to be completed by December 2025 as outlined in the non-binding MoU signed between the companies. This bulk sample includes iron-free brine produced by Anson's unique chemical-free process. The pretreatment process to reduce iron prior to being fed into the DLE processing was developed at Anson's Lithium Innovation Center in the USA. The planned demonstration plant is a scaled-up version of a pilot plant to validate a new industrial process at a larger, commercially relevant scale before full-scale construction. This demonstration plant will operate on a continuous process basis to closely resemble that of the anticipated future commercial plant as well as generating significant quantities of lithium carbonate product. The company has applied for three more exploration licences that would increase its landholding at the Central Rutile project in Cameroon to a massive 5901sqkm. Notably, the Biyan licence is next to the Nganda and Bounde permits where DY6 recently reported both visible HM mineralisation as well as large (2-4cm) rutile nuggets within residual regolith samples. The Nlong licence is immediately west of the Alamba and Nsimbo permits, which are seen as along trend from recently reported high-grade results from Peak Minerals' Afanloum licence. And the Ayene licence is to the southwest of the recently acquired Weaver group of licences. 'DY6 has been able to move quickly in securing additional ground in what we continue to see as an emerging globally significant rutile province,' CEO Cliff Fitzhenry said. 'The recently announced systematic soil sampling program will be expanded to include the new licence applications. 'We are keen to further expand our footprint at the Central Rutile project where we see the right ingredients for prospective residual natural rutile deposits, being correct underlying geology, a deep in-situ weathering profile and strategically located.' Viridis Mining and Minerals (ASX:VMM) Last month VMM signed a landmark binding Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with two of Brazil's foremost asset management firms, ORE Investments and Régia Capital, securing up to US$30 million (A$46m) in non-brokered private share placement funding for the rapid development of its flagship Colossus rare earth project in Brazil. The partnership establishes a flexible, milestone-based funding structure to support the company through Final Investment Decision and into the initial phase of project execution. MD Rafael Moreno said the MOU significantly de-risked the pathway to production, 'while designed to provide funding flexibility to accelerate progress'. 'Importantly, the structure allows Viridis to retain full optionality around additional funding sources,' he said. 'The involvement of ORE and Régia brings more than just capital. Both firms are deeply embedded within the Brazilian investment and mining landscape and bring significant strategic value in navigating regulatory frameworks, managing local stakeholder engagement, and unlocking logistical and operational synergies. 'Their endorsement validates the technical and economic fundamentals of the Colossus project, and their local insight and financial networks will be instrumental in accelerating the permitting, project financing, infrastructure buildout, and development stages of the project.'
